GMP of IPO | Everything You Should Know About

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When it comes to investing in IPOs, one term often grabs headlines before the actual listing: GMP of IPO, or Grey Market Premium. IPOs are highly anticipated events for investors, usually resulting in significant trading activity on the listing day. One key metric many investors rely on to gauge an IPO’s potential success is the grey market premium. This blog unpacks what the grey market premium is, how it works, and why it matters in the IPO landscape.

What is GMP in IPO?

The Grey Market Premium (GMP) represents the premium amount at which shares of an IPO are traded in the unofficial or “grey” market before their listing on the stock exchange. It provides investors with a glimpse into market sentiment and demand for the IPO. The grey market premium serves as an indicator of the likely performance of an IPO on listing day. By understanding what GMP is in IPO, Investors can make informed decisions about whether to apply for an IPO or adjust their expectations.

Definition and Meaning of Grey Market Premium of IPOs 

The GMP of IPO is the price at which IPO shares are traded in the informal market before the company’s shares are officially listed. It reflects the perceived value of the shares beyond the IPO price band, driven by market demand and sentiment.

How GMP Reflects Market Sentiment Before IPO Listing 

The GMP of IPO serves as a barometer for investors’ passion. A high GMP indicates strong demand and potential gains on the listing day, while a low or negative GMP may signal weak investor interest. The IPO GMP is the difference between the current market price of the unlisted security in the Grey Market and the expected price of the same security when it becomes listed on the stock exchange. 

How Accurate is the GMP of IPO?

The Grey Market Premium is not an accurate measure of an individual company’s performance. Moreover, it can be misleading to investors since it does not account for fluctuations in the market prices that happen before a trade takes place. 

• A Positive GMP indicates that there is high demand for the security and that investors are willing to pay a premium for it.
• A Negative GMP indicates a low demand for security, and investors are unwilling to pay a premium for it. 

How the IPO Grey Market Works

The IPO GMP has become a term used by investors who monitor new issues with a view to potential listing profits. Most new investors often wonder, ‘What is GMP in IPO?’ Simply put, the IPO Grey Market Premium is the additional price investors are willing to pay in the unofficial grey market ahead of the shares’ official listing in the NSE or BSE. Through the knowledge of IPO GMP, investors attempt to approximate the potential listing price.

Here’s the step-by-step functioning of the GMP of IPO:

Grey Market Trading

Once the IPO subscription closes, stocks begin trading in the grey market.

When demand is high, IPO Grey Market Premium increases.

Price calculation

GMP = Grey market price – Issue price of IPO

For Example: Issue price of IPO ₹250, Grey market price ₹300 → IPO GMP = ₹50.

Sentiment Indicator

A higher GMP of an IPO reflects greater investor demand and potential listing appreciation. A lower or negative IPO GMP reflects poor demand and a possible listing at the issue price.

Not a Guarantee, the IPO Grey Market Premium is only an indicator, and not a guaranteed reality. Listing actually relies upon market conditions, QIB subscription, and company fundamentals, which help in predicting the listing price.

Anticipated listing price = Issue price + IPO GMP.

Role of GMP in IPO

Serves as a Demand Indicator.

The IPO GMP indicates the intensity of demand in the grey market.

A high IPO GMP indicates high buying interest, and a low or negative premium indicates weak demand.

1. Assists in Estimating Listing Price: Grey Market Premium of IPO is used by investors to estimate the listing day price.

Formula: Estimated Listing Price = Issue Price + IPO GMP.

Example: IPO price ₹300 + GMP ₹80 = ₹380 estimated listing.

2. Influences Short-Term Traders: Traders hoping for listing profits closely monitor the IPO GMP closely.

Positive GMP signifies hope for profit, while negative GMP serves as a warning of potential loss.

3. Refers to Market Sentiment: IPO GMP indicates what the market thinks of the company before listing.

A good subscription, combined with high GMP yields, creates a favourable expectation.

4. Helps in Decision Making: While the basics are essential, most retail investors take the Grey Market Premium of IPO as a ready reckoner to determine whether to apply to the issue or not.

5. Unofficial but Powerful: While the GMP definition is unofficial and not regulated, it plays a part in influencing investor psychology.

It generates initial excitement or wariness about an IPO.

Factors Influencing GMP ( Grey Market Premium) IPO

Overall Subscription Levels

Healthy oversubscription in retail, HNI, and QIB segments raises the IPO GMP.Weak subscription results in low or negative IPO GMP.

Factors that influence the GMP IPO:

• Company fundamentals: They include growth prospects, debt level, sector strength, and profitability, which influence demand. Healthy fundamentals result in a high Grey Market Premium for IPOs.

• Market Sentiment: Healthy market trends boost the IPO GMP.

      Destructive or unstable markets lower investor interest, resulting in a decrease in GMP.

• Peer Comparison: If top players in the industry are doing well, the IPO GMP increases. Poor peer performance reduces the premium.

• Brand Value and Investor Confidence: Popular brands or companies sponsored by well-known investors tend to command a higher IPO GMP.

• IPO Size: Small IPOs with limited numbers of shares tend to have greater demand, resulting in a higher Grey Market Premium for the IPO. Large IPOs can have moderate GMP with increased supply.

• Anchor Investor Participation: Well-participation by institutional and anchor investors augments confidence, increasing the IPO GMP.

• Grey Market Speculation: Demand-supply speculation drives the grey market. The willingness of traders to pay a premium has a direct impact on IPO’s GMP.

How to Check GMP of IPO on Univest?

Here’s the step to follow to check the GMP of IPO on Univest:

• Download and Open the Univest App: First step is to download the Univest App from the Google Play Store/ App Store. Then, log in by using your mobile number/ email ID.
• Go to the IPO Section: Open the home screen, tap on the IPO tab. This section presents all the ongoing, upcoming, and recently closed IPOs. 
• Select Your IPO: Review and scroll down the list of IPO and click on the IPO you want to track.
• Check Grey Market Premium ( GMP): On the page inside the IPO details, you can see the IPO Price Band, Subscription Status, and Grey Market Premium( GMP)

The GMP is usually updated daily, so you’ll explore the latest trend.

• Activate the IPO alert in the Univest app to receive real-time GMP updates.
• You won’t miss any movement before the listing day.         

Advantages of GMP IPO

In the case of investment in new issues, investors tend to look at the GMP of IPO for an initial idea of returns. Most new investors seek to know, What is GMP in IPO? It can be answered by knowing the Grey Market Premium of an issue, which is the premium price investors are ready to offer in the off-market before listing. Understanding the IPO GMP has several advantages that benefit both short-term and medium-term investors. By understanding what GMP means, investors can make more informed decisions.

Advantages of GMP IPO are:

Assists with Estimation of Listing Profits: One of the most significant benefits of monitoring the IPO’s GMP is that it helps investors anticipate potential returns on the listing day.

IPO issue price ₹250, IPO GMP ₹60 → Listing price anticipated ₹310.

• Tells about Investor Mood: IPO’s Grey Market Premium provides an instant insight into what investors think of the company. Strong demand and optimism indicate a high GMP, while a low GMP indicates cautious behaviour.

• Guides Short-Term Traders:Traders, who mainly apply for listing gains, employ IPO GMP as a significant guide. It helps them decide whether to subscribe to or avoid an IPO.

• Works as a Demand Indicator: IPO GMP captures demand in the unofficial market itself, even before the shares are listed. High GMP generally indicates oversubscription even in official markets.

• Offers Early Market Signals: Through the Grey Market Premium of an IPO, investors can estimate how the stock is likely to perform on its debut day. This serves as a pre-official listing signal.

• Quick Decision-Making: Many retail investors rely on IPO GMP as a concise method for making investment decisions. It does so by saving time through a basic, market-based estimate of listing performance.

How to Calculate Grey Market Premium (GMP) IPO

The IPO GMP is crucial in helping investors estimate potential listing gains. Most newbies often wonder, ‘What is IPO GMP?’ Simply put, the IPO Grey Market Premium is a price variation that exists between the unofficial grey market, where shares are traded, and the officially determined issue price set by the company. To know the meaning of GMP, you must first learn how it is calculated. Calculating IPO GMP is easy. You start by recording the IPO issue price, which is the price at which stocks are offered to the public. Then, you observe the current grey market price, which is the price at which stocks are being traded unofficially before they are listed. 

The calculation is straightforward: IPO GMP = Grey Market Price – Issue Price. Assume the issue price of an IPO is ₹300 and that the same stock is being quoted in the grey market at ₹360, then the IPO GMP would be ₹60. This premium indicates that the listed price might be around ₹360 (₹300 + ₹60).

GMP = Grey Market Premium* Number of Shares

In reality, the GMP of IPO continues to fluctuate on a day-to-day basis, based on variables such as overall subscription levels, market perception, and investor demand. Strong investor demand and potential listing gains are reflected in a higher Grey Market Premium of IPO, whereas weak investor interest is represented by a lower or even negative GMP. Although the calculation of the IPO GMP provides an instant sense of listing expectations, investors should keep in mind that it is an unregulated and unofficial guide. The listing performance can vary depending on market conditions and a company’s fundamentals. Hence, while knowing the GMP definition and its calculation is useful for short-term traders, long-term investors must also keep an eye on the company’s business strength.

Risks Of The GMP IPO 

There are some risks that investors should review when considering the GMP of an IPO. 

• Unofficial and Unregulated: SEBI or stock exchanges do not monitor the IPO’s GMP. Being unofficial, investors enjoy no protection if transactions fail.

• Speculative Nature: People wonder, what is GMP in IPO? It is mere market speculation. IPO GMP is usually expectation-driven, rather than fundamentals-driven.

• May Not Match Actual Listing Price:A high IPO Grey Market Premium does not always mean high listing profits. The volatility of the market can cause shares to list below what was forecasted.

• Risk of Manipulation: Because the grey market is not regulated, premiums may be manipulated by rumours or created demand.

• Short-Term Orientation: The meaning of GMP is focused on listing gains. Long-term investors may overlook fundamentals if they are solely concerned with IPO GMP.

• False Confidence for Investors: A high GMP of an IPO can mislead investors into anticipating profits that may not materialise.

• Market Sentiment Dependent: The Grey Market Premium of an IPO varies day by day with market sentiment. Any bad news or market decline can sharply cut down GMP before listing. 

Let’s Wrap 

The GMP of an IPO has emerged as a valuable tool for investors who wish to calculate anticipated listing gains before the shares go live on the stock market. First-time investors often wonder, What does ‘GMP in IPO’ mean? It simply refers to the Grey Market Premium of IPO, which is the premium amount that traders are willing to pay in the unauthorised grey market over the official issue price. By knowing the IPO GMP, investors receive an advanced clue of demand and the probable listing price of an IPO.

The calculation process is also fundamental. IPO GMP = Grey Market Price – Issue Price. Suppose the IPO issue price is ₹300, and the same stock is quoted at ₹360 in the grey market. That makes the premium ₹60. That indicates that the listing price may be approximately ₹360. Traders need to understand the meaning of GMP to gauge short-term profits and determine whether they should subscribe to the IPO.

There are several benefits to monitoring the Grey Market Premium of IPOs. It provides insights into the mood of investors, reflects demand, and facilitates rapid decision-making for those dealing with listing gains. A robust IPO GMP typically indicates favourable expectations and high subscription rates.

And yet, investors should also watch out. IPO GMP is unofficial, unregulated, and purely speculative. Rumours, manipulation, or market volatility could sway it. A high IPO GMP does not necessarily translate to robust listing performance if overall market sentiment turns sour.

In summary, the IPO Grey Market Premium is a reliable indicator of market sentiment and a prospective guide to listing performance, but one should never invest solely on it. Savvy investors juxtapose the tips of IPO GMP with the fundamentals of the company and overall market analysis to make safer and more neutral decisions.

FAQs

Q1. What is GMP in IPO?

The term GMP in IPO stands for the Grey Market Premium of IPO, which is the additional price that investors are ready to pay in the unauthorised grey market over the issue price. It indicates investor interest and market mood before listing.

Q2. How is the GMP of IPO calculated?

The formula is straightforward: IPO GMP = Grey Market Price – Issue Price. For instance, if the IPO issue price is ₹250 while the grey market price stands at ₹300, then the IPO GMP is ₹50.

Q3. Why is IPO GMP significant?

The IPO GMP provides investors with an estimate of the likely listing price and potential returns. The IPO GMP is closely followed, as the Grey Market Premium of IPOs provides an advanced indication of demand prior to the commencement of formal trading.

Q4. Is the GMP of IPO reliable?

Not always. Although the GMP of IPO reflects the market mood, it is unofficial and unregulated. The listing price may vary depending on fundamentals, subscription levels, and general market conditions.

Q5. What does GMP mean in IPO?

The GMP’s meaning in IPO merely reflects investor sentiment. Strong demand and reasonable expectations mean a higher premium, while weak interest is reflected by either a lower or a negative premium.

Q6. Can I sell shares in the grey market legally?

No, the IPO GMP arises from illegal transactions outside a stock exchange. SEBI does not recognise or regulate it, so investors must utilise IPO GMP solely as a hint, never to trade.

Q7. Should I apply for an IPO based solely on IPO GMP?

No, depending solely upon the IPO GMP is risky. Investors must also consider the company’s fundamentals, finances, and overall market sentiment, as well as the Grey Market Premium of the IPO.

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