ITC Share Price Falls 18.80% YoY: What Went Wrong & What’s the Target

Posted by : Kashish Aggarwal | Thu Feb 19 2026

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As per ITC’s recent share price, it has declined by 19.83% over the past year, 20.36% over the past six months, and 2.23% over the past month. The stock has been underperforming the Sensex, which declined by 0.98% over the same period. The ITC shares have shown a notable shift, with delivery volumes and institutional interest shaping their market activity. However, it remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which may indicate longer-term resistance or consolidation phases. ITC’s one-day return of -0.74% outpaced the sector’s decline of -0.40% and the Sensex’s fall of -0.13%, which suggests the development of market sentiment.

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Key Reasons Behind the ITC Share Price Fall

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There are several reasons behind the ITC share price fall, such as government excise duty hike on cigarettes, brokerage downgrades & earnings cuts, profitability concerns in the core business, negative market sentiment, and underperformance relative to benchmarks and Peers.

Government excise duty hike on cigarettes: The biggest announcement has been the new excise duty regime on cigarettes and tobacco products, which replaced the earlier GST compensation cess system effective from 1st February, 2026. This leads to an increase in the tax burden on cigarettes, which is considered the ITC’s most profitable segment.
Brokerage downgrades & earnings cuts: Analysts have lowered earnings estimates and downgraded the stock amid the tax shock, which offers margin and volume risks that have reduced future profit expectations.
Profitability concerns in the core business: The cigarette industry accounts for a large share of ITC’s profits, making any threat to its segment a key factor in valuation and sentiment analyses. The company is diversified across sectors such as FMCG, Tobacco, and more.
Negative market sentiment: The overall market has been volatile, and ITC’s stock has faced consistent selling pressure, dropping to new multi-year lows.
Underperformance of the sector: ITC has stucked the market indices and some competitors, leading to reduced investor interest. Decreasing financial results, such as in recent quarters, have also reduced market sentiment.

ITC: Performance Analysis

ITC’s one-day return is -0.74% reflects the sector’s decline of -0.40% and the Sensex’s fall of -0.13%, suggesting a more positive reaction to recent developments or market sentiment. The behaviour in the stock price following three consecutive gains may reflect profit-taking or a reassessment of near-term prospects by market participants. The stock has also reflected operational inefficiency with a premium valuation multiple, including a Price to Earnings ratio of 16.72 and a Price to Book Value of 5.69.

Also Read: Infosys Share Price Drops 2.04%

ITC: Recent Share Movements

As per recent ITC share movements, the current share price of ITC is ₹325.80, and the stock price further declined to ₹321.35, down 0.37% on the day, with volumes of 4.31 lakh shares. The Sensex continued its modest upward trend, gaining 0.25%, while ITC’s relative underperformance was highlighted. The mixed technical signals persisted, with the stock remaining below key moving averages, reinforcing a cautious market sentiment. The stock traded below all major moving averages, a configuration often interpreted as bearish. Delivery volumes declined sharply by over 60%, signalling waning institutional conviction and reduced long-term buying interest.

ITC: Future Outlook

Over the past year, ITC Ltd’s stock has experienced a massive 19.80% decline, which contrasts with the Sensex’s 3.84% return during the same period. Institutional investors hold a significant stake in ITC, accounting for 15.10% of the shareholding. While operational growth metrics remain positive, valuation and debt service capacity continue to weigh on stock market performance. Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) for the half year was recorded at 10.20%, the highest level achieved recently, indicating capital efficiency.

ITC: Future Anticipation by Analysts

Analysis of order flow suggests that institutional investors have been active in ITC shares, and the combination of high traded value, elevated delivery volumes, and mixed technical signals points to a complex trading environment for ITC. While short-term momentum reflects some changes, longer-term moving averages suggest caution. Despite near-term challenges, ITC remains one of India’s strongest cash-generating companies. For investors evaluating the ITC share price fall, the key decision now depends on risk tolerance, investment horizon, and expectations around tobacco taxation.

Also Read: HCL Technologies Share Price Drops 2.00%

ITC: Share Price Target

The ITC share price target is 360.90. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 8.90% from the last price of ₹325.80 . According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ITC India is ₹300.00, with a low forecast of ₹235.80 and a high forecast of ₹210.70. According to projections from 31 analysts, the average 12-month price target for ITC India is ₹203.10, with a high estimate of ₹140.23 and a low estimate of ₹210.90. ITC India has a potential upside of +2.3%, based on analysts’ average price target.

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ITC: Analysts’ Rating

The average 12-month price target is ₹390.30, and the consensus rating is Hold (mix of Buy, Hold, & Sell).
The analyst’s target range is between ₹370.10 and ₹400.14.
According to some analysts, concerns remain about a ‘Reduce’ call at ₹310.90.
The analyst’s sentiment is mixed; there have been recent bullish calls (ICICI, JM), but also cautious ones (Motilal Oswal, Nuvama).

What is the Right Time to Buy ITC Shares?

According to analysts, ITC’s share price is determined by market factors. The share price has decreased due to internal company factors, as discussed above. Therefore, investors must review all relevant factors before investing in ITC India. There are several factors to consider before investing in ITC India Company shares.

Strong Fundamentals: Investors should review ITC India Company’s fundamentals before investing. If a company has strong fundamentals, high profitability, and effective management, then investors should consider investing in it.
Financing Partnerships: Financing partnerships bridge the gap between customers and power institutions, facilitating the distribution of a wide range of products and generating positive sales revenue for many consumers.
Growth in the Diversified Sector: The company is well-positioned in the FMCG and Tobacco sectors to deliver benefits to ITC India. This dominant sector increases demand and prices for ITC India.
Highly Volatile: Prices are highly volatile, leading to significant price changes that substantially affect ITC India Company’s stock price. Investors must review the market structure before investing in ITC India shares.

Conclusion

ITC Ltd’s trading activity on 19th February 2026 highlights the stock’s continued prominence in the Indian equity market. The interplay of high-value turnover, institutional interest, and changing price dynamics provides a high level of context for market observers. Along with generating returns of -19.86% over the last 1 year, the stock has also underperformed the BSE500 over the last 3 years, 1 year, and 3 months. According to projections from 31 analysts, the average 12-month price target for ITC India is ₹203.10, with a high estimate of ₹140.23 and a low estimate of ₹210.90. ITC India has a potential upside of +2.3%, based on analysts’ average price target.

FAQs

What are the key reasons behind the ITC share price fall?

Ans. There are several reasons behind the ITC share price fall, such as government excise duty hike on cigarettes, brokerage downgrades & earnings cuts, profitability concerns in the core business, negative market sentiment, and underperformance relative to benchmarks and Peers. The cigarette industry accounts for a large share of ITC’s profits, making any threat to its segment a key factor in valuation and sentiment analyses. The company is diversified across sectors such as FMCG, Tobacco, and more.

What are the ITC share price target?

Ans. The ITC share price target is 360.90. The consensus estimate represents an upside of 8.90% from the last price of ₹325.80 . According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ITC India is ₹300.00, with a low forecast of ₹235.80 and a high forecast of ₹210.70. According to projections from 31 analysts, the average 12-month price target for ITC India is ₹203.10, with a high estimate of ₹140.23 and a low estimate of ₹210.90.

What are the factors that affect the ITC share?

Ans. According to analysts, ITC’s share price is determined by market factors. The share price has decreased due to internal company factors, as discussed above. Therefore, investors must review all relevant factors before investing in ITC India. There are several factors to consider before investing in ITC India Company shares. The company is well-positioned in the FMCG and Tobacco sectors to deliver benefits to ITC India. This dominant sector increases demand and prices for ITC India.

What is the future prediction of the ITC share?

Ans. Analysis of order flow suggests that institutional investors have been active in ITC shares, and the combination of high traded value, elevated delivery volumes, and mixed technical signals points to a complex trading environment for ITC. While short-term momentum reflects some changes, longer-term moving averages suggest caution. The analyst’s sentiment is mixed; there have been recent bullish calls (ICICI, JM), but also cautious ones (Motilal Oswal, Nuvama).