Why is Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals (MRPL) Share Price Falling?

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MRPL’s stock has been underperforming in the short term, declining 4.24% over the past week, compared with the Sensex’s marginal 0.36% gain. The downward trend has extended over the last three consecutive trading sessions, during which the stock has declined by 6.31%. This short-term weakness is further underscored by a sharper one-month loss of  -4.84%, significantly exceeding the Sensex’s modest 0.66% decline over the same period. From a technical perspective, MRPL’s current price sits above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which signals underlying strength in the medium to long term. However, it remains below the shorter-term 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, indicating recent selling pressure. This technical setup suggests a cautious market sentiment in the near term. 

Key Reasons Behind the MRPL’s Share Price Fall?

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There are several reasons behind the MRPL’s share price fall, including the company reporting losses, declining gross refining margins, a decline in Q1 results, and low investor participation. 

Below are the reasons behind the fall in Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals (MRPL)

• Company Reports Losses: MRPL has reported a soft set of Q1 FY26 numbers. The company saw revenue from operations decline to ₹209.88 billion (bn) from ₹272.89 billion (bn) year-on-year (YoY). The company reported a consolidated net loss of ₹2.72 bn, a significant reversal from a net profit of ₹656 million (m) in the same quarter last year. 
• Gross Refining Margins Fall: The gross refining margin (GRM) of MRPL declined to US$4.70 per barrel. GRM is a key profitability metric in the oil refining industry. It represents the difference between the total value of petroleum products produced by a refinery and the cost of the crude oil used as raw material, calculated on a per-barrel basis. 
• Decline in Q1 results: MRPL stock price is bearish on the daily charts, with strong resistance at ₹149. A daily close below the ₹136 support could lead to a near-term target of ₹124, following its Q1 earnings and a largely flat performance in recent months. Some market experts have maintained a bearish outlook on the counter. 
• Low investor participation: Decreased delivery volumes suggest reduced buying interest, which leads to the MRPL share price falling. Investor participation plays an important role in the MRPL share price and determines whether the share price will fall or rise.  

How has Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) performed recently?

Despite these recent setbacks, the stock’s longer-term performance remains impressive. Over three years, MRPL has delivered a remarkable 170.60% return, substantially outpacing the Sensex’s 40.01% gain. Over five years, the stock’s appreciation of 324.05% dwarfs the benchmark’s 81.04% increase, highlighting the company’s sustained growth perspective. Over the past year, MRPL’s share price has been relatively flat, declining by only 0.24%, even as profits have risen by 13.6%. This divergence points to a potential undervaluation, supported by a PEG ratio of 1.8, which balances growth prospects against current market pricing. While the current price dip may reflect temporary market sentiment, MRPL’s fundamentals suggest resilience and potential for recovery aligned with broader sector and economic trends. 

Note: For the live MRPL Share Price Target, visit the univest app and check the stock fundamentals.  

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL): Future Outlook

MRPL’s profitability is exposed to sharp movements in crude oil prices. Crude oil spreads are a function of many dynamic markets and fundamental factors. These include global demand-supply and geopolitical stability in countries with oil reserves. In recent months, we have seen a spike in crude oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East. However, the company’s strong financial health, consistent growth in sales and profits, and attractive valuation metrics provide a compelling case for investors to maintain a hold position. While the current price reduction may reflect temporary market sentiment, MRPL’s fundamentals suggest resilience and potential for recovery in the economic trends. 

MRPL: Share Price Target

MRPL share price target of ₹141.74, and the consensus estimate represents a downside of 129.50% from the last price of ₹140.36. View 5 reports from 2 analysts offering long-term price targets for MRPL Ltd. Based on 24 analysts, 66.667% of analysts recommend a ‘BUY’ rating for MRPL, with an average target price of ₹149.80. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year share price target for MRPL is ₹137.02, with a low forecast of ₹98.92 and a high forecast of ₹185.00. However, the reported profit after tax fell 10.90% year on year to ₹258 crores, owing to a ₹100 crore loss, while adjusted EPS rose from ₹5.91 to ₹7.80. 

Note: For the live MRPL Share Price Target, visit the univest app and check the stock fundamentals. 

MRPL: Future Predictions by Analysts 

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Limited is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 26.4% and 1.9% per annum, respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 26.1% per annum, so the Mangalore Refinery 52-week range spans from ₹98.92 to ₹185.00. Analysts build their predictions using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, including analysing historical financial statements and performance, and studying industry trends and the competitive landscape, while considering guidance and forecasts provided by the company’s management. Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) is expected to grow at a rate of 0.03% per annum. Return on equity is forecast at 0.90% over the next 3 years. 

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MRPL: Analysts’ Rating 

• The average 12-month price target is ₹185.00, and the consensus rating is Hold (mix of Buy, Hold, & Sell). 
• The analyst’s target range is between ₹180.90 and ₹185.67. 
• According to some analysts, concerns remain about a ‘Reduce’ call at ₹145.00. 
• The analyst’s sentiment is mixed; there have been recent bullish calls (ICICI, JM), but also cautious ones (Motilal Oswal, Nuvama). 

What is the Right Time to Buy MRPL?

According to analysts, MRPL’s share price is determined by market factors. The share price has decreased due to internal company factors, as discussed above. Therefore, investors must review all relevant factors before investing in MRPL. There are some factors to consider before investing in MRPL Company shares.

• Strong Fundamentals: Investors should review MRPL Company’s fundamentals before investing. If a company has strong fundamentals, high profitability, and effective management, then investors should consider investing in it.    
• Financing Partnerships: Financing partnerships bridge the gap between customers and financial institutions, facilitating the distribution of a wide range of products and generating positive sales revenue for many consumers.   
• Growth in the Refinery Sector: The company is well-positioned in the refinery demat sector to deliver benefits to MRPL. This dominant sector increases demand and prices for MRPL.
• Highly Volatile: Prices are highly volatile, leading to significant price changes that substantially affect MRPL Company’s stock price. Investors must review the market structure before investing in MRPL shares.

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Conclusion 

MRPL’s cash and cash equivalents stand at a substantial ₹8,742.50 crore as of the half-year mark, providing solid liquidity. The company’s return on capital employed (ROCE) of 10.40% indicates efficient capital utilisation, while its enterprise value to capital employed ratio of 1.5 suggests an attractive return relative to peers. Notably, the stock trades at a discount compared to the average historical valuations of its sector counterparts. Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Limited is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 26.4% and 1.9% per annum, respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 26.1% per annum, so the Mangalore Refinery 52-week range spans from ₹98.92 to ₹185.00. Decreased delivery volumes suggest reduced buying interest, which leads to the MRPL share price falling. Investor participation plays an important role in the MRPL share price and determines whether it will rise or fall. 

FAQs

What are the key reasons behind the MRPL’s share price decline?

Ans.  There are several reasons behind the MRPL’s share price fall, including the company reporting losses, declining gross refining margins, a decline in Q1 results, and low investor participation. The gross refining margin (GRM) of MRPL declined to US$4.70 per barrel. GRM is a key profitability metric in the oil refining industry. It represents the difference between the total value of petroleum products produced by a refinery and the cost of the crude oil used as raw material, calculated on a per-barrel basis. 

What are the factors that affect the MRPL share price? 

Ans.  According to analysts, MRPL’s share price is determined by market factors. The share price has decreased due to internal company factors, as discussed above. Therefore, investors must review all relevant factors before investing in MRPL. There are some factors to consider before investing in MRPL Company shares. Financing partnerships bridge the gap between customers and financial institutions, facilitating the distribution of a wide range of products and generating positive sales revenue for many consumers.   

What is the MRPL share price target?

Ans.  MRPL share price target of ₹141.74, and the consensus estimate represents a downside of 129.50% from the last price of ₹140.36. View 5 reports from 2 analysts offering long-term price targets for MRPL Ltd. Based on 24 analysts, 66.667% of analysts recommend a ‘BUY’ rating for MRPL, with an average target price of ₹149.80. 

Should investors buy the MRPL shares or not?

Ans. Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Limited is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 26.4% and 1.9% per annum, respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 26.1% per annum, so the Mangalore Refinery 52-week range spans from ₹98.92 to ₹185.00. Over five years, the stock’s appreciation of 324.05% dwarfs the benchmark’s 81.04% increase, highlighting the company’s sustained growth perspective. Over the past year, MRPL’s share price has been relatively flat, declining by only 0.24%, even as profits have risen by 13.6%. 

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