Why is the National Securities Depository Ltd NSDL Share Price Falling?

Click Here – Get Free Investment Predictions

National Securities Depository Ltd: As per the recent price movements of the NSDL, it has declined by 0.35% from the previous day. The NSDL has decreased by 8.13% over the last month, reflecting ongoing challenges for the company, including poor financial performance, weak investor sentiment, and consistent underperformance relative to market benchmarks. Long-term growth prospects appear bleak, as operating profit has contracted at an alarming annualised rate of 225.15% over the past five years. This severe decline in core earnings capacity raises concerns about the company’s ability to sustain operations and generate value. The NSDL share price correction follows the release of Q126 results, which show a healthy rise in net profit but a drop in revenue. 

The short-term performance of NSDL’s stocks is expected to be higher. Over one month, NSDL posted a 0.90%, slightly ahead of the Sensex’s 0.053% fall. However, over the six months, it has risen by 11.57%. The company has reflected long-term fundamentals, with a 38.00% CAGR in operating profits and consistent positive results over the last five quarters, which are likely to increase NSDL’s share price. Despite a strong performance over the past year, when the stock returned 11.57%, the company has a negative book value and weak long-term fundamentals, raising concerns among investors.      

 Key Reasons Behind the NSDL Share Price Fall

 Tap to Access Best Research Pieces

There are several reasons behind the NSDL share price fall, such as Q1 FY26 results, Profit booking, regulatory issues, and valuation & Market Context. 

• Q1 FY26 Results: While the company reported a strong set of numbers, investor expectations were higher. NSDL saw its total income increase from ₹1,565 m in Q1 FY25 to ₹1,904 m in Q1 FY26, representing a 21.68% YoY growth.  The net profit after tax grew 24.01% YoY from ₹666 m in Q1 FY25 to ₹1,904 m in Q1 FY26, an increase of 21.69% YoY.
• Profit Booking: The NSDL stock was listed on 6th August. On the same day, the stock closed 17% higher than the IPO price. On 8th August, the stock jumped 35%, bringing its cumulative gain to 52% over three trading sessions.  After a steep run, the stock fell despite a decent set of Q1 FY26 numbers. 
• Regulatory Issues: SEBI highlighted lapses in vendor management (TCS contract delays) and systems checks, adding to investor caution; through NSDL, these issues. Changes in regulatory policies may negatively impact the NSDL share price. 
• Valuation & Market Context: Even after the recent decline, NSDL’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 7.15, higher than that of peer Central Depository Services Ltd (CDSL), which is around 66. Analysts attribute the premium to NSDL’s scale, established market presence, and technology infrastructure, which leads to a decline in the NSDL share price.    

Note: For live NSDL Share Price Target, visit the univest app and check the stock fundamentals.  

NSDL Shareholding Structure

NSDL has a diverse shareholding base, with no promoter holding, and mutual funds collectively hold only 1.65% of the company’s shares. As of September 30, 2025, the major institutional shareholders include IDBI Bank (14.99%), HDFC Bank (6.95%), State Bank of India (SBI) (3%), Union Bank of India (2.56%), and Canara Bank (2.3%). The National Stock Exchange (NSE) is one of NSDL’s most significant public shareholders, owning a 15% stake. Retail investors with an authorised share capital of up to ₹2 Lakh collectively hold a 23.47% stake, accounting for nearly 8.1 lakh retail shareholders in the company. 

Tap to Access Best Research Pieces

NSDL: An Overview

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is an Indian central securities depository, based in Mumbai. At the end of 2023, its demat accounts held assets worth ₹398 lakh crore ($4.7 trillion). NSDL provides services to investors, stock brokers, custodians and issuer companies through a network of Depository Participants and digital platforms. Its services relate to dematerialisation, transfer, and settlement of securities in the Indian securities market. The IPO of NSDL  was launched in July 2025 as an offer for sale (OFS) of shares worth ₹4,012 crores (US$458 million) by its existing shareholders, including NSE, IDBI Bank, SBI, and SUUTI. It contributes to the majority of the settlement in the Indian securities markets and holds more than 89% of the total value of assets held in demat form in India.  

NSDL: Performance Analysis

• Revenue grew at a CAGR of 17.8% from 1,022 crore in FY23 to ₹1,420 crore in FY25. However, the YoY growth slowed down from 24% in FY24 to 12% in FY25, a first sign that the post-pandemic demat-account boom is maturing. 
• EBITDA grew 32% in FY25 after a modest 12% rise the year before, lifting the margin back above 24%. The swing tells us management re-tightened costs just as fee income kept expanding, converting operating leverage into profit. 

How have NSDL Shares Performed Recently?

As of 19th December 2025, NSDL’s share price is ₹1,044. It’s been falling for four consecutive days, losing -2.51% in that period. Its long-term growth trajectory remains healthy, with net sales expanding at an annual rate of 12.18% and operating revenues. The stock’s recent day change of -4.06% aligns with the broader trend of selling pressure observed over the past few days. Being above the 5-day moving average suggests some short-term buying interest earlier in the week. Still, the failure to sustain above longer-term averages points to persistent resistance and a lack of conviction among investors. 

Note: For live NSDL Share Price Target, visit the univest app and check the stock fundamentals.  

NSDL: Future Outlook 

India’s depository space is rapidly expanding. By early 2025, there were over 192.4 million demat accounts, with record monthly additions. While CDSL leads in retail account numbers, NSDL dominates in high-value assets, NRI participation, and debt instruments. The depository segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15-20% through 2030, driven by rising digital adoption, T+1 settlements, and fintech integration.  Market participants may monitor upcoming corporate announcements, sector developments, and broader economic indicators to gauge whether selling pressure will ease or persist. Investors should carefully consider these mixed signals, balancing the stock’s historical growth with current market dynamics and technical indicators. The extreme selling pressure and the absence of buyers serve as a cautionary signal.              

Download the Univest iOS App or the Univest Android App to get daily stock recommendations and insightful research pieces!

NSDL: Share Price Target

The NSDL share price target is ₹1,170, and the consensus estimate represents an upside of 10.27% from the last price of 1,054.30. Based on 34 analysts, 17.00% of analysts recommend a ‘Buy’ rating for NSDL, with an average target price of ₹1,057.00. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year share price target for NSDL is ₹890.00 to ₹1,010.00, with a low forecast of ₹1,230.70 and a high forecast of ₹1,340.

1,021.40. The price is below an essential level of ₹1,032.00 on the charts, and if it remains below this level, the stock might decline in the short term. The NSDL share price target for 2026 is ₹899.90, with the minimum estimate of ₹456.10 and a maximum estimate of ₹1,098.00. According to projections from 44 analysts, the average 12-month price target for NSDL is ₹1,021.80, with a high estimate of ₹1,034.80 and a low estimate of  ₹880.10.

NSDL: Analysts Rating

• The average 12-month price target is ₹1,078.00, and the consensus rating is Hold (mix of Buy, Hold, & Sell).
• The analyst’s target range is observed between a high of ₹1,210.00 and a low of ₹1,090. 
• According to some analysts, concerns remain about a ‘Reduce’ call at ₹1.010.78.
• The analyst’s sentiment is mixed; there have been recent bullish calls (ICICI, JM), but also cautious ones (Motilal Oswal, Nuvama). 

Note: For live NSDL Share Price Target, visit the univest app and check the stock fundamentals.  

What is the Right Time to Buy NSDL Shares?

According to analysts, the NSDL’s share price is determined by market factors. The share price has decreased due to internal company factors, as discussed above. Therefore, investors must review all relevant factors before investing in NSDL. There are some factors to consider before investing in NSDL Company shares.

• Strong Fundamentals: Investors should review NSDL Company’s fundamentals before investing. If a company has strong fundamentals, high profitability, and effective management, then investors should consider investing in it.    
• Financing Partnerships: Financing partnerships bridge the gap between customers and financial institutions, facilitating the distribution of a wide range of products and generating positive sales revenue for many consumers.   
• Growth in the Diversified Sector: The company is well-positioned in the diversified sector to deliver benefits to NSDL. This dominant sector increases demand and prices for NSDL.
• Highly Volatile: Prices are highly volatile, so price changes significantly impact NSDL Company’s stock price. Investors must review the market structure before investing in NSDL’s shares. 

Conclusion

JM Financial initiated coverage on NSDL with an ‘Add’ rating and ₹1,290 share price target, implying a 12% potential upside. NSDL facilitates 66% of India’s demat transactions, with 56% of revenue from diversified segments, such as KYC management and payments. The brokerage expects CAGRs of 11%, 18%, and 15% for revenue, EBITDA, and profit from FY25-28. India’s depository space is rapidly expanding. By early 2025, there were over 192.4 million demat accounts, with record monthly additions. While CDSL leads in retail account numbers, NSDL dominates in high-value assets, NRI participation, and debt instruments. The depository segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15-20% through 2030, driven by rising digital adoption, T+1 settlements, and fintech integration.

FAQs NSDL Share Price

What are the key reasons behind the NSDL share price fall?

Ans. There are several reasons behind the NSDL share price fall, such as Q1 FY26 results, Profit booking, regulatory issues, and valuation & Market Context. The NSDL stock was listed on 6th August. On the same day, the stock closed 17% higher than the IPO price. On 8th August, the stock jumped 35%, bringing its cumulative gain to 52% over three trading sessions.  After a steep run, the stock fell despite a decent set of Q1 FY26 numbers.

What is the NSDL share price target?

Ans. The NSDL share price target is ₹1,170, and the consensus estimate represents an upside of 10.27% from the last price of 1,054.30. Based on 34 analysts, 17.00% of analysts recommend a ‘Buy’ rating for NSDL, with an average target price of ₹1,057.00. The price is below an essential level of ₹1,032.00 on the charts, and if it remains below this level, the stock might decline in the short term. The NSDL share price target for 2026 is ₹899.90, with the minimum estimate of ₹456.10 and a maximum estimate of ₹1,098.00. 

Should investors buy NSDL shares or not?

Ans. India’s depository space is rapidly expanding. By early 2025, there were over 192.4 million demat accounts, with record monthly additions. While CDSL leads in retail account numbers, NSDL dominates in high-value assets, NRI participation, and debt instruments. The depository segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15-20% through 2030, driven by rising digital adoption, T+1 settlements, and fintech integration. 

What are the factors that affect the NSDL shares?

Ans. According to analysts, the NSDL’s share price is determined by market factors. The share price has decreased due to internal company factors, as discussed above. Therefore, investors must review all relevant factors before investing in NSDL. There are some factors to consider before investing in NSDL Company shares. Investors should review NSDL Company’s fundamentals before investing. 

Read Our Articles on the Best Stocks

Tech Stocks in India to Invest in 2025 | Tech Sector Stocks 

Best Battery Stocks in India to Invest in 2025 | Battery Sector Stocks 

Best Shipping Stocks in India to Invest in 2025 | Shipping Sector Stocks 

Paint Stocks in India to Invest in 2025 | Paint Sector Stocks 

Paper Stocks in India to Invest in 2025 | Paper Sector Stocks 

Best Semiconductor Stocks in India 2025 

Best Large Cap Stocks in India 2025 

Green Energy Penny Stocks

Best Cement Stocks To Invest In India

Also Explore

Univest Screeners

Explore Webstories on Univest 

Best Time To Buy Dividend Stocks

How RBI Policies Affect Dividend Stocks

Can Dividend Stocks Beat Inflation

What Is The Dividend Aristocrat List

Which Indian Psus Offer The Best Dividends

Large Cap Vs Small Cap Dividend Stocks