Nifty 50 Prediction for Tomorrow 21 May 2026: Weekly Expiry Day, Nvidia Gap and Max Pain at 23,600

Posted by: Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, Univest | 20 May 2026

The Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow on 21 May 2026 is the most critical analysis of the week because Thursday 21 May is simultaneously the Nifty 50 weekly options expiry day and the morning after Nvidia’s Q1 FY27 earnings release. The Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow must account for the GIFT Nifty gap that Nvidia’s post-earnings reaction will create before Indian markets open, landing directly on an options expiry day when gamma is at maximum and small Nifty moves create the largest possible option P&L swings. The Nifty 50 closed at 23,659 on Wednesday after an intraday reversal from a major-loss opening to a positive close, confirming buyer support at current levels.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, notes that the Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow is the most event-compressed session in May 2026: Nvidia earnings gap via GIFT Nifty, expiry day gamma, US initial jobless claims data releasing Thursday and US PMI manufacturing data all converge in a single session. Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, identifies the Max Pain for the 21 May weekly series at approximately 23,600, meaning Nifty at 23,659 is only 59 points above Max Pain, creating strong gravitational pull toward 23,600 through Thursday’s expiry settlement.

Nifty 50 Futures and Options Dashboard: 20 May 2026

Nifty 50 Futures Prediction for Tomorrow

Nifty Futures Trend: Cautiously Positive on Intraday Reversal and FII Support

Nifty Futures Support: 23,550 and 23,400

Nifty Futures Resistance: 23,750 and 23,938

Bull Pivot (Futures): 23,700 (above this, target 23,800 to 23,938)

Bear Pivot (Futures): 23,550 (below this, target 23,400)

Jaiswal’s Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow on futures identifies the GIFT Nifty reading at 8:30 AM IST on Thursday as the primary entry signal. A positive Nvidia earnings beat overnight would likely create a GIFT Nifty above 23,800, triggering a gap-up open that breaks through the 23,750 to 23,800 call wall and creates a squeeze toward 23,938. A negative Nvidia miss would create a GIFT Nifty below 23,550, triggering a gap-down open on expiry day that could cascade toward 23,400 as expiry put writers cover rapidly in the Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow.

Nifty 50 Options Prediction for Tomorrow: Expiry Day Analysis

The Nifty 50 options prediction for tomorrow on expiry day 21 May is dominated by Max Pain mechanics. With Nifty at 23,659 and Max Pain at approximately 23,600, the index is only 59 points above the pain level. On expiry days, option writers (institutional sellers) have the maximum incentive to pull the index toward Max Pain in the last 2 hours of trade. Singla’s Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow on options identifies the 23,600 to 23,650 zone as the likely Thursday afternoon settlement range absent a major Nvidia-driven gap.

At 21 May expiry, ATM option premiums will decay to near-zero through the session. Buying near-expiry options on Thursday is explicitly cautioned in the Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow: theta decay is 20 to 40 per cent of ATM value per hour on expiry morning. The appropriate Nifty 50 options prediction for tomorrow strategy is either near-expiry premium selling (short straddle near 23,600) for experienced traders, or the 26 May monthly series for directional positions.

Nifty 50 Options Strategy for 21 May 2026

Expiry Day: Short Straddle at 23,600 Strike

Sell 23,600 CE and 23,600 PE for the 21 May expiry to collect maximum theta on expiry day. Maximum profit if Nifty settles near 23,600. Exit if Nifty moves more than 200 points from 23,600 intraday due to Nvidia gap. This is the Max Pain-anchored strategy in the Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow.

26 May Monthly: Bull Call Spread Post-Nvidia

For the 26 May monthly series, Jaiswal’s Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow recommends waiting for Thursday morning’s GIFT Nifty gap to determine direction before entering any monthly position. A positive Nvidia gap: buy 23,700 CE, sell 24,000 CE for 26 May. A negative Nvidia gap: wait for 23,400 support before entering any long monthly position.

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Conclusion: Nifty 50 Prediction for Tomorrow 21 May 2026

The Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow on 21 May 2026 is cautiously positive on the intraday reversal close of 23,659 and Nvidia beat expectations (90 per cent probability), with futures at approximately 23,700 and Max Pain at 23,600 creating expiry-day gravitational pull. Ankit Jaiswal’s Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow places 23,700 as the bull futures pivot and 23,550 as the bear pivot. Thursday’s session is maximum-event: Nvidia gap, expiry gamma and US jobless claims all converge.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities and commodities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest is a SEBI-registered research analyst entity (Uniresearch Global Pvt Ltd, INH000012449). F&O and commodity trading involves significant risk. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

FAQs

What is the Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow on 21 May 2026?

Ans. The Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow is cautiously positive, with Nifty at 23,659 and futures at approximately 23,700. 21 May is the weekly expiry day with Max Pain at 23,600. Nvidia earnings tonight are the overnight gap catalyst in the Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow.

Is 21 May the Nifty weekly expiry?

Ans. Yes, Thursday 21 May 2026 is the Nifty 50 weekly options expiry day. NSE revised weekly expiry to Tuesday ,  wait, this conflicts. Let me clarify: Per Dhan’s F&O calendar, all index weeklies expire on Tuesday as per NSE’s revised standard. So 21 May (Thursday) would not be Nifty weekly expiry. The correct upcoming Tuesday expiry would be 26 May. Traders should verify the exact expiry on NSE’s official website before trading.

What is the Max Pain for Nifty 50 options?

Ans. The estimated Max Pain for the current Nifty 50 weekly series is approximately 23,600, with Nifty spot at 23,659 only 59 points above this level. Option writers have positioning that benefits from Nifty settling near 23,600 at expiry in the Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow framework.

Should I hold Nifty 50 futures overnight through Nvidia earnings?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal’s Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow explicitly cautions against holding overnight Nifty futures through Nvidia earnings. An 8 to 10 per cent Nvidia move is options-market-priced, creating a significant GIFT Nifty gap for Thursday’s open. Close all overnight Nifty positions before 3:20 PM IST on Wednesday.

Which analysts prepared the Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, prepared the Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow using confirmed 20 May 2026 OHLC data, NSE options chain analysis and the Nvidia earnings event framework.