Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow 22 May 2026: MCX Crashes 5.07% to Rs 9,519 on Iran Strike Pause

Crude oil price prediction for tomorrow 22 May: MCX crude crashed to Rs 9,519/barrel (-5.07%) on 20 May. 21 May recovery +0.81%. Brent near $111.

The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow on 22 May 2026 is cautious recovery after MCX crude oil crashed 5.07 per cent to Rs 9,519 per barrel on 20 May 2026, the largest single-day MCX crude decline since April 2026. The 5.07 per cent decline was triggered by Trump’s announcement pausing US military action against Iran on Gulf allies’ appeal. By 09:30 AM on 21 May, MCX crude had recovered 0.81 per cent to Rs 9,540, confirming that the market is not pricing a permanent Iran resolution but rather recalibrating the war premium in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, notes that on 21 May that Brent crude remains near 111 US Dollars per barrel, maintaining structural supply disruption premium even after the strike pause. Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, adds that the IEA’s warning that global oil inventories are declining rapidly with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed provides the structural floor for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow regardless of the Iran diplomatic development.

Crude Oil Market Data: 20-21 May 2026

Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow: Iran Scenario Analysis

Jaiswal’s crude oil price prediction for tomorrow identifies three scenarios based on Iran diplomatic developments. In the base case (strike pause holds, no formal deal), MCX crude trades between Rs 9,424 support and Rs 10,095 resistance, reflecting partial war premium removal with Hormuz structural floor intact. This is the most probable scenario in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

In the bear case (formal US-Iran nuclear deal announced), MCX crude would crash toward Rs 8,819 support and potentially below as Iranian supply returns to markets. In the bull case (Iran strike pause reversed or UAE attack escalates), crude rebounds sharply above Rs 10,095 toward Rs 10,571 in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

Impact on Indian Markets: Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow

• OMCs (IOC Rs 138 close, BPCL, HPCL): Most Positive. MCX crude at Rs 9,519 per barrel directly expands OMC refining margins. Every Rs 500 per barrel decline from the recent Rs 10,095 level improves OMC quarterly PAT by an estimated Rs 800 to Rs 1,000 crore system-wide. IOC’s confirmed Q4 FY26 profit surge already anchors the fundamental case.
• Aviation (IndiGo): ATF Cost Relief. Brent near $111 is still elevated but the 5 per cent single-day decline provides near-term ATF procurement relief for IndiGo, compounding the Maharashtra VAT cut from 18 to 7 per cent in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
• ONGC and Oil India: Royalty Cut Buffer. The 16.66 per cent to 10 per cent royalty cut on onshore crude announced 18 May partially offsets lower realisation from crude price decline, making ONGC approximately neutral-to-slightly-negative on crude price in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

Trend: Cautious Recovery; Rs 9,424 Support, Rs 10,095 Resistance

MCX Crude Support 1: Rs 9,424 per barrel

MCX Crude Support 2: Rs 8,819 per barrel

MCX Crude Resistance 1: Rs 10,095 per barrel

MCX Crude Resistance 2: Rs 10,571 per barrel

Track live MCX crude oil prices on the Univest Screener.

Conclusion: Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow 22 May 2026

The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow on 22 May 2026 is cautious recovery, with MCX crude at Rs 9,519 per barrel (20 May close, BusinessUpturn). The 5.07 per cent crash was Trump’s Iran strike pause; the Hormuz closure and IEA inventory warnings maintain the structural floor. Jaiswal’s base case crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is Rs 9,424 to Rs 10,095 range.

Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest is a SEBI-registered research analyst entity (Uniresearch Global Pvt Ltd, INH000012449). Commodity, F&O and equity investments are subject to market risk. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

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FAQs

What is the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow on 22 May 2026?

Ans. The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is cautious recovery, with MCX crude at Rs 9,519/barrel (20 May close, -5.07%). 21 May morning recovery was +0.81% to Rs 9,540. Base case range: Rs 9,424 to Rs 10,095. Iran development is the dominant binary risk.

Why did MCX crude crash 5 percent on 20 May?

Ans. MCX crude fell 5.07 per cent to Rs 9,519 on 20 May because Trump paused the planned US military strike on Iran following personal appeals from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This partially removed the imminent war premium. However, no formal Iran deal was signed and the Strait of Hormuz closure remained, maintaining structural support in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

What is the MCX crude oil support level for tomorrow?

Ans. MCX crude oil support for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is Rs 9,424 per barrel (first) and Rs 8,819 (second). Resistance levels are Rs 10,095 (recovery target) and Rs 10,571 (ceiling). These are confirmed technical reference levels on the MCX June crude contract.

Is Brent crude still near $111 despite the 5 percent crash?

Ans. Yes. Goodreturns confirmed on 21 May that Brent crude remains near 111 US Dollars per barrel. The 5 per cent MCX crash was from a higher level (above Rs 10,000) and reflects partial war premium removal, not a fundamental resolution of the Hormuz closure. The IEA’s inventory decline warning maintains the structural floor in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

Which Indian stocks benefit from MCX crude below Rs 9,500?

Ans. IOC (closed Rs 138 on 21 May), BPCL and HPCL are the primary beneficiaries, with direct refining margin expansion. IndiGo benefits from lower ATF costs. ONGC is approximately neutral due to royalty cut offsetting lower realisation in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.