Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow 21 May 2026: MCX Recovers to Rs 10,095 After Trump Cancels Iran Strike

The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow on 21 May 2026 is cautiously range-bound, with MCX crude oil June futures recovering to Rs 10,095 per barrel on Wednesday, up Rs 68 or 0.68 per cent, after the sharp 3.93 per cent crash on 19 May when Trump cancelled the planned US military strike on Iran following appeals from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow represents the market’s recalibration after the Iran strike cancellation: the immediate military escalation premium has been partially removed, but the Strait of Hormuz closure remains fully intact, maintaining the structural supply disruption that has underpinned crude above $100 since April 2026.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, notes that the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is the most geopolitically sensitive analysis this week. The Trump-Iran dynamic has shifted: the US proposed a temporary waiver on Iranian oil sanctions, Iran is reportedly willing to consider a long-term nuclear freeze, and the strike has been cancelled. But no formal agreement has been signed, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, adds that until a verifiable deal is announced, the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow carries significant headline risk in both directions.

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Crude Oil Market Data: 20 May 2026

Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow: Geopolitical Analysis

Jaiswal’s crude oil price prediction for tomorrow identifies the Iran situation as a three-scenario framework. In the base case (no further escalation, no formal deal), crude trades in the Rs 9,700 to Rs 10,300 MCX range, with the Hormuz closure maintaining supply disruption premium and the strike cancellation capping the upside. This is the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow’s most likely scenario.

In the bear case (formal US-Iran deal announced), crude oil would crash toward Rs 8,500 to Rs 9,000 on MCX as 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian supply returns to markets. In the bull case (Iran deal collapses and fresh military action), crude would spike back above Rs 10,571 resistance toward Rs 10,990 in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow: MCX Levels

Trend: Cautious Recovery; Range-bound Between Deal and No-Deal Scenarios

MCX Crude Support 1: Rs 9,424 per barrel

MCX Crude Support 2: Rs 8,819 per barrel

MCX Crude Resistance 1: Rs 10,571 per barrel

MCX Crude Resistance 2: Rs 10,990 per barrel

Impact on Indian Markets: Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow

• OMCs (IOC, BPCL, HPCL): Most Positive from Crude Decline. Crude falling from the Rs 10,600 to Rs 10,800 peak of last week toward Rs 10,095 directly expands OMC refining margins. IOC’s confirmed Q4 FY26 profit surge is already embedded at lower crude levels. Every Rs 500 per barrel MCX crude decline improves OMC quarterly PAT by an estimated Rs 800 to Rs 1,000 crore in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow context.
• ONGC and Oil India: Royalty Cut Partially Offsets. The royalty cut on onshore crude from 16.66 per cent to 10 per cent (18 May) partially offsets the lower realisation from crude price decline. The net effect for ONGC in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is approximately neutral-to-mildly-negative on headline revenue but positive on net profit margin.
• Aviation (IndiGo): Dual Positive. Brent below $110 reduces aviation turbine fuel costs, compounding the Maharashtra VAT cut from 18 to 7 per cent. IndiGo benefits from both crude de-escalation and state-level fuel tax relief in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

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Conclusion: Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow 21 May 2026

The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow on 21 May 2026 is cautiously range-bound at Rs 9,424 to Rs 10,571 on MCX, with the June contract at Rs 10,095 recovering 0.68 per cent after the Trump Iran strike cancellation crashed crude 3.93 per cent on 19 May. Ankit Jaiswal’s crude oil price prediction for tomorrow identifies the absence of a formal Iran deal (base case) as the range-bound scenario. Thursday’s US PMI data will determine whether demand-side signals reinforce the recovery or add another layer of bearish pressure.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities and commodities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest is a SEBI-registered research analyst entity (Uniresearch Global Pvt Ltd, INH000012449). F&O and commodity trading involves significant risk. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

FAQs

What is the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow on 21 May 2026?

Ans. The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is cautiously range-bound, with MCX June crude at Rs 10,095 per barrel. MCX support is Rs 9,424 and resistance Rs 10,571. Trump’s Iran strike cancellation has partially reduced the war premium, but the Strait of Hormuz closure maintains structural supply disruption.

Why did crude oil fall on 19 May and recover on 20 May?

Ans. Crude fell 3.93 per cent on 19 May when Trump announced a pause in US military action against Iran, following appeals from Gulf allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. On 20 May, crude recovered 0.68 per cent as the market recalibrated: the strike is paused but not resolved, and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, maintaining the structural supply premium.

What is the MCX crude oil support for tomorrow?

Ans. MCX crude oil support levels for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow are Rs 9,424 (first) and Rs 8,819 (second). Resistance levels are Rs 10,571 and Rs 10,990. These levels are confirmed technical reference points on the MCX June contract.

Which Indian stocks benefit from lower crude oil prices?

Ans. The three biggest Indian beneficiaries from MCX crude below Rs 10,095 are IOC, BPCL and HPCL (OMCs), which see direct margin expansion from lower feedstock costs. IndiGo (aviation) benefits from lower ATF costs. ONGC and Oil India are mixed: lower crude reduces revenue but the royalty cut partially compensates in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

What happens if a formal US-Iran nuclear deal is announced?

Ans. A formal US-Iran nuclear deal would allow 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude to re-enter global markets, potentially crashing MCX crude toward Rs 8,500 to Rs 9,000 ,  below the Rs 8,819 major support ,  in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow bear scenario. OMC stocks and aviation would rally sharply in this scenario.