Commodity Market Prediction for Tomorrow 18 May 2026: Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Metals MCX Outlook

The commodity market prediction for tomorrow on 18 May 2026 is dominated by one variable above all others: Brent crude oil at $108.54 to $109 per barrel, the highest sustained level since the West Asia conflict began in late February 2026, following Trump’s overnight statement that Iran must make a deal or face renewed attacks. This commodity market prediction for tomorrow covers the five most actively traded MCX commodity contracts: crude oil, gold, silver, natural gas and base metals, each of which carries a distinct catalyst for Monday’s MCX session. MCX crude oil’s May 2026 contract expires on 18 May, making today’s session the most important expiry-day event in the commodity market prediction for tomorrow.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, have prepared tonight’s commodity market prediction for tomorrow by assessing three global macro inputs: the US-Iran military situation and its impact on crude oil, the Trump-Xi Beijing summit outcome on industrial metals, and the FOMC minutes on 20 May on gold and silver. Their commodity market prediction for tomorrow identifies crude oil as the highest-risk, highest-conviction trade for Monday’s MCX session.

Commodity Market Snapshot: What Happened on 15-16 May 2026

Crude Oil: Commodity Market Prediction for Tomorrow

MCX Crude Oil Expiry: 18 May 2026 (Monday)

Brent Crude Level: $108.54 to $109 per barrel

Support: Rs 8,600 per barrel (MCX) / $105 Brent

Resistance: Rs 9,500 per barrel (MCX) / $112 Brent

Crude oil is the most critical component of the commodity market prediction for tomorrow because the MCX May 2026 crude oil contract expires on 18 May, making Monday’s session an expiry-day trade with elevated volatility expectations. Ankit Jaiswal’s commodity market prediction for tomorrow on crude oil is bullish, with Trump’s Iran statement and Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser’s warning of prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption until 2027 both supporting prices above $105 per barrel throughout the week.

The expiry day dynamic in the commodity market prediction for tomorrow for MCX crude oil means that open positions must be squared off by MCX’s close on 18 May. This creates an artificially elevated volatility window in the first two hours of MCX trading on Monday morning, which Kunal Singla identifies as the primary risk factor in the commodity market prediction for tomorrow for crude oil traders. Traders with open May expiry crude oil positions must monitor the MCX carefully from 9:00 AM IST on Monday.

Gold and Silver: Commodity Market Prediction for Tomorrow

The commodity market prediction for tomorrow on gold is cautiously bearish to sideways, with MCX gold futures at Rs 1,53,155 per 10 grams. Ankit Jaiswal places MCX gold resistance at Rs 1,55,000 and support at Rs 1,50,000 for Monday’s session. The FOMC minutes on 20 May are the most important forward-looking catalyst for gold in this commodity market prediction for tomorrow, with the hawkish rate environment limiting gold’s upside potential. MCX silver’s commodity market prediction for tomorrow is cautiously positive to range-bound at Rs 2,71,322 per kilogram, with industrial demand providing a structural floor.

Natural Gas: Commodity Market Prediction for Tomorrow

Natural gas is one of the most bullish components of the commodity market prediction for tomorrow, with the Strait of Hormuz near-shutdown cutting LNG supply that the region normally provides to Asian markets including India. MCX natural gas is trading in the Rs 380 to Rs 420 per MMBtu range, elevated by both power demand from India’s summer season and the structural supply reduction from the West Asia crisis. Kunal Singla’s commodity market prediction for tomorrow on natural gas is bullish, with any fresh US-Iran escalation pushing prices above Rs 420 per MMBtu on Monday.

Base Metals: Commodity Market Prediction for Tomorrow

The commodity market prediction for tomorrow on base metals is cautiously positive to mildly bullish following the Trump-Xi Beijing summit’s constructive tone. Xi’s statement that US-China common interests outweigh their differences signals a commercial rather than confrontational bilateral relationship, which directly supports industrial metal demand expectations for the world’s largest manufacturing economy. Copper MCX is the primary beneficiary of this US-China constructive signal in the commodity market prediction for tomorrow, followed by zinc and aluminium.

• MCX Copper: Firm on Trump-Xi summit positive commercial tone; commodity market prediction for tomorrow is mildly bullish; monitor Rs 880 to Rs 920 per kg range.
• MCX Zinc: Recovering from recent lows; commodity market prediction for tomorrow is cautiously positive; support Rs 275; resistance Rs 295 per kg.
• MCX Aluminium: Stable; beneficiary of India’s domestic manufacturing push; commodity market prediction for tomorrow range Rs 235 to Rs 250 per kg.

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Key Events for the Commodity Market Prediction for Tomorrow

• MCX Crude Oil Expiry on 18 May: The most time-sensitive event in the commodity market prediction for tomorrow is the MCX May 2026 crude oil contract expiry on Monday 18 May. All open positions must be closed. Expect elevated volatility in the first two hours of MCX trading and wider bid-ask spreads than usual.
• US-Iran Overnight Developments: Any weekend statement from the US Central Command or Iranian government on the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire status will gap crude oil and natural gas significantly at Monday’s MCX open, making real-time news monitoring essential for the commodity market prediction for tomorrow.
• Trump-Xi Summit Final Outcome: Any concrete US-China trade deal announcement from the Trump-Xi Beijing summit will lift base metals (copper, zinc, aluminium) sharply at Monday’s MCX open, as China accounts for approximately 50 per cent of global industrial metal demand. This is the primary upside catalyst in the base metals component of the commodity market prediction for tomorrow.
• FOMC Minutes on 20 May: The Federal Open Market Committee minutes release on 20 May will be the dominant driver for gold and silver in the two days following Monday. Any hawkish language will press gold toward Rs 1,50,000 and shift the gold component of the commodity market prediction for tomorrow to bearish.

Commodity Market Prediction for Tomorrow: Trading Strategy

Crude Oil: Square Off May Expiry Positions by 11:30 PM IST

The commodity market prediction for tomorrow is emphatic that all MCX May 2026 crude oil positions must be closed by the MCX expiry deadline on 18 May. New positions in June crude oil futures may be entered after the May expiry closes, based on the commodity market prediction for tomorrow’s bullish bias on the geopolitical premium.

Gold: Sell Rallies Toward Rs 1,55,000 for Short-Term Traders

Short-term MCX gold traders should use the commodity market prediction for tomorrow’s cautious bias to sell rallies toward Rs 1,55,000 with a stop above Rs 1,57,000 and target Rs 1,50,000. Long-term investors should treat any correction toward Rs 1,47,000 as an accumulation opportunity.

Silver and Base Metals: Range Trade With Tight Stops

The commodity market prediction for tomorrow on silver and base metals favours range trading given the elevated VIX and geopolitical uncertainty. Use tight stop losses at 2 per cent for all base metal positions in the commodity market prediction for tomorrow context, as a single US-Iran headline can move these contracts 3 to 5 per cent intraday.

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Conclusion: Commodity Market Prediction for Tomorrow 18 May 2026

The commodity market prediction for tomorrow on 18 May 2026 is dominated by crude oil’s expiry-day dynamics and the elevated geopolitical premium at $108.54 per barrel. Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla’s commodity market prediction for tomorrow identifies crude oil and natural gas as bullish, gold and silver as range-bound to cautiously bearish and base metals as mildly positive on the Trump-Xi summit constructive tone. Monitor the MCX opening at 9:00 AM IST on Monday and set stop losses before entering any position based on this commodity market prediction for tomorrow.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest is a SEBI registered research analyst entity (Uniresearch Global Pvt Ltd, SEBI Registration Number INH000012449). Views expressed are for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investments in securities and commodities are subject to market risks. Please read all related documents before investing. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor before making any investment decision.

FAQs

What is the commodity market prediction for tomorrow on 18 May 2026?

Ans. The commodity market prediction for tomorrow on 18 May 2026 is bullish for crude oil and natural gas, cautiously bearish to sideways for gold and silver, and mildly positive for base metals. MCX crude oil expires on 18 May, creating elevated intraday volatility. Brent crude is at $108.54 per barrel, MCX gold is at Rs 1,53,155 per 10 grams and MCX silver is at Rs 2,71,322 per kilogram in the commodity market prediction for tomorrow.

Why is crude oil so elevated in the commodity market prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. Crude oil is elevated at $108.54 to $109 per barrel because Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire is on ‘massive life support’ and Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned the Strait of Hormuz disruption could persist until 2027. These two statements directly underpin the bullish crude oil component of the commodity market prediction for tomorrow, with every ceasefire escalation adding a further risk premium.

What is the MCX crude oil expiry date and its impact on the commodity prediction?

Ans. MCX May 2026 crude oil futures expire on 18 May 2026 (Monday). All open positions in the May contract must be squared off before the MCX expiry deadline. This creates elevated volatility in the first 2 hours of Monday’s MCX session, making the commodity market prediction for tomorrow on crude oil the highest-risk but also potentially highest-reward trade of the day.

How does the Trump-Xi summit affect base metals in the commodity prediction?

Ans. The Trump-Xi Beijing summit concluded on 15 May with Xi stating that US-China common interests outweigh their differences, a constructive signal for base metals because China accounts for approximately 50 per cent of global industrial metal demand. The commodity market prediction for tomorrow on base metals is mildly positive on this diplomatic backdrop, with copper the primary beneficiary.

Which commodity is the safest to trade on 18 May based on the prediction?

Ans. Based on the commodity market prediction for tomorrow, MCX silver and copper offer the most range-bound and manageable risk profiles. Crude oil carries the highest expiry-day risk on 18 May. Gold carries FOMC minutes risk on 20 May. Natural gas is directionally bullish but volatile. Silver and base metals trade within defined ranges with clearly placed support and resistance levels in the commodity market prediction for tomorrow.