Q4 Results Expectations

[vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” column_margin=”default” column_direction=”default” column_direction_tablet=”default” column_direction_phone=”default” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” row_border_radius=”none” row_border_radius_applies=”bg” overflow=”visible” overlay_strength=”0.3″ gradient_direction=”left_to_right” shape_divider_position=”bottom” bg_image_animation=”none”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_tablet=”inherit” column_padding_phone=”inherit” column_padding_position=”all” column_element_spacing=”default” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” column_link_target=”_self” column_position=”default” gradient_direction=”left_to_right” overlay_strength=”0.3″ width=”1/1″ tablet_width_inherit=”default” tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” animation_type=”default” bg_image_animation=”none” border_type=”simple” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1680760962201{margin-right: 16px !important;margin-left: 16px !important;border-right-width: 10px !important;border-left-width: 10px !important;}”]The fourth quarter of FY23 ended on 31st March and many companies from different sectors have already announced their business updates for the past quarter. The rest will follow suit. Some of the prominent names that have declared their Q4 business updates include HDFC Ltd, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Vedanta, Hindustan Zinc and Britannia Industries.

Based on these updates, one can get an overview as to what to expect in the coming results season. At a broad level, these updates point to a continuation of growth and Q4FY23 shows no signs of any kind of slowdown. Considering these updates, FY23 may turn out to be one of the best years for many companies.

HDFC Bank – Another quarter with healthy growth of the loan book

HDFC Bank recorded a healthy loan growth for Q4FY23, showing a growth of nearly 17% over the previous year. The bank’s advances stood at Rs 16 lakh crore as of March 2023, compared with Rs 13.6 lakh crore as of March 2022.

According to the Q4FY23 business update released by the bank, HDFC Bank’s domestic retail loans grew by around 21% on a YOY basis during the same period, while commercial and rural banking loans surged 30% over March 2022 and corporate and other wholesale loans jumped 12.5% in the period ending March 2023.

The bank’s overall deposits stood at nearly Rs 18.8 lakh crore as of March 2023, a growth of around 21% over Rs 15.59 lakh crore as of March 2022. Retail deposits increased by around Rs 1.06 lakh crore during Q4FY23 and rose 23.5% over March 2022 and around 7.5% over December 2022. 

Bajaj Finance – All set for another record breaking year

In its Q4 business update the NBFC said that its customer base increased by 3.1 million to stand at 69.1 million as of March 31, 2023. “The Company recorded highest ever increase in its customer base of 11.5 million in FY23,” it said in a regulatory filing on April 4.

New loans booked during Q4 FY23 grew by 20% to 7.6 million as compared to 6.3 million in Q4 FY22. Core AUM grew by 29% to approximately Rs 247,350 crore as of 31 March 2023 as compared to Rs 192,087 crore as of March 31, 2022.

Marico – Key categories continue to do well 

For Marico Ltd, Q4FY23 was the third consecutive period of YoY volume growth in its India business. The FMCG  company’s quarterly update for Q4 said that volumes grew in mid-single digit. Growth in Q2 and Q3 was at 3-4%. The increase in Q4 comes on the back of strong performance by key product categories such as Parachute Coconut Oil, which saw a high single-digit volume growth.

On the other hand, volume of Saffola Oils dropped YoY due to a high base. This compares to 9% and 13% growth seen in Q2 and Q3, respectively. Further, value-added hair oils clocked double-digit value growth. Marico’s international business saw mid-teen increase in constant currency terms, thereby maintaining a strong growth trajectory. Here, currency depreciation was a key headwind.

Godrej Consumer Products – India set to outperform its international units

Godrej Consumer Products expects double-digit growth on a consolidated basis, led by “mid-single digit” volume growth through the March quarter. In India, the FMCG company said that its performance has “exceeded expectations”, especially on the volume front, according to its fourth-quarter update with the bourses. 

The Indonesia business is expected to report mid-single-digit constant currency sales growth. “The growth in ex-hygiene is close to double digits. We believe building blocks are in place in Indonesia to drive steady-to-strong performance in the next fiscal year,” it said. Godrej Africa, the U.S., and the Middle East witnessed a temporary pause in strong double-digit sales growth.

While the updates paint a positive picture, analysis of the declared results, will give us the true picture. Updates are limited to a few sectors and some sectors are likely to throw surprises as they release the Q4 results.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ketan Sonalkar (SEBI Rgn No INA000011255 )

Ketan Sonalkar is a certified SEBI registered investment advisor and head of research at Univest. He is one of the finest financial trainers, with a track record of having trained more than 2000 people in offline and online models. He serves as a consultant advisor to leading fintech and financial data firms. He has over 15 years of working experience in the finance field. He runs Advisory Services for Direct Equities and Personal Finance Transformation.

Note – This channel is for educational and training purpose only & any stock mentioned here should not be taken as a tip/recommendation/advice

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