Natural Gas Price Prediction for Tomorrow 25 May 2026: MCX Crashes 4.55% to Rs 276 on Memorial Day Demand Slump

Natural gas price prediction for tomorrow 25 May: MCX Rs 276.90 (-4.55% on 22 May). Henry Hub $2.92 (-3.21%). Memorial Day demand slump.

The natural gas price prediction for tomorrow on 25 May 2026 is cautiously bearish to range-bound after MCX natural gas suffered the largest single-day decline among all MCX commodities on 22 May, crashing 4.55 per cent to Rs 276.90 per MMBtu, while the US Henry Hub benchmark fell 3.21 per cent to $2.92 per MMBtu. The natural gas price prediction for tomorrow is defined by the Memorial Day demand slump: the four-day US weekend reduces industrial natural gas consumption significantly, removing approximately 15 to 18 per cent of normal weekday demand from US power plants and manufacturing facilities through Monday 26 May.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, notes that the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow has three bearish headwinds converging simultaneously: Memorial Day industrial demand reduction, the weekly EIA storage report expected to show a near-normal injection of 96 billion cubic feet (in-line readings cap price upside), and Golden Pass LNG Train 1 adding 0.7 billion cubic feet per day of export capacity from its first cargo on 22 April. Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, adds that the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow has one structural positive offsetting the bearish factors: the Strait of Hormuz LNG disruption continues to support global gas prices above the $2.50 per MMBtu floor.

Natural Gas Market Data: 22 May 2026

Natural Gas Price Prediction for Tomorrow: Key Drivers

• Memorial Day Industrial Demand Reduction: The four-day US Memorial Day weekend (Saturday 23 May to Monday 26 May) materially reduces US natural gas consumption. Manufacturing plants, offices and commercial buildings operate at reduced capacity or close entirely, reducing power demand by an estimated 15 to 18 per cent versus normal weekday levels. This demand reduction is the primary driver of Friday’s 3.21 per cent US Henry Hub decline and the dominant bearish factor in the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow.
• Golden Pass LNG Train 1 Adding Supply: Golden Pass LNG’s first cargo from Train 1 was dispatched in late April, adding approximately 0.7 billion cubic feet per day of new US LNG export capacity. More export capacity means more domestic natural gas leaves the US market, which should tighten domestic supply, but the counter-effect is that higher exports also draw from the same storage pool, creating a conflicting supply dynamic in the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow.
• EIA Storage Report Expected 96 Bcf Injection: The weekly EIA natural gas storage report is expected to show an injection of approximately 96 billion cubic feet, near the seasonal five-year average. An in-line reading is neutral for the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow. A larger-than-expected build (above 110 Bcf) would be bearish and push Henry Hub toward $2.70 support. A smaller build would be supportive.
• Hormuz Structural Floor Remains: Despite the Memorial Day demand slump, the Strait of Hormuz disruption to global LNG trade routes provides a structural floor for the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow. The Iran nuclear complication (uranium to stay in Iran) on 22 May suggests the Hormuz situation will not resolve quickly, maintaining the global LNG supply disruption premium.

Trend: Bearish to Range-bound; Rs 258 Support, Rs 296 Resistance

MCX Natural Gas Support 1: Rs 258/MMBtu

MCX Natural Gas Support 2: Rs 240/MMBtu

MCX Natural Gas Resistance 1: Rs 296/MMBtu

MCX Natural Gas Resistance 2: Rs 315/MMBtu

Henry Hub Support: $2.70/MMBtu

Henry Hub Resistance: $3.10/MMBtu

Track live MCX natural gas prices on the Univest Screener.

Conclusion: Natural Gas Price Prediction for Tomorrow 25 May 2026

The natural gas price prediction for tomorrow on 25 May 2026 is cautiously bearish, with MCX natural gas at Rs 276.90 per MMBtu after a 4.55 per cent crash on 22 May and US Henry Hub at $2.92 (-3.21 per cent). Memorial Day demand slump, Golden Pass LNG new supply and an expected in-line EIA storage injection are the three bearish factors. The Hormuz structural disruption provides the downside floor at Rs 258.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities and commodities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest is a SEBI-registered research analyst entity (Uniresearch Global Pvt Ltd, INH000012449). Commodity and F&O trading involves significant risk. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before investing.

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FAQs

What is the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow on 25 May 2026?

Ans. The natural gas price prediction for tomorrow is cautiously bearish, with MCX natural gas at Rs 276.90 per MMBtu (-4.55 per cent on 22 May) and US Henry Hub at $2.92 (-3.21 per cent). Memorial Day demand slump is the primary bearish driver. MCX support is Rs 258 and resistance Rs 296.

Why did natural gas price fall so sharply on 22 May?

Ans. MCX natural gas fell 4.55 per cent on 22 May due to the Memorial Day industrial demand reduction ; the four-day US weekend reduces US natural gas consumption by 15 to 18 per cent as manufacturing plants and commercial buildings operate at reduced capacity. US Henry Hub fell 3.21 per cent to $2.92 per MMBtu on the same demand slump in the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow context.

What is the EIA storage report expected to show?

Ans. The EIA weekly natural gas storage report is expected to show an injection of approximately 96 billion cubic feet for the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow. An in-line reading near 96 Bcf is neutral. A larger build above 110 Bcf would be bearish and push Henry Hub below $2.80 support. A smaller-than-expected build would be supportive and could reverse the decline.

What is MCX natural gas support and resistance for tomorrow?

Ans. MCX natural gas support for the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow is Rs 258 per MMBtu (first) and Rs 240 (second). Resistance levels are Rs 296 (first, post-crash ceiling) and Rs 315 (second). International Henry Hub support is $2.70 and resistance $3.10 per MMBtu.

How does Golden Pass LNG affect the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 exported its first cargo in late April and added approximately 0.7 billion cubic feet per day of new US LNG export capacity. More export capacity allows more US natural gas to leave the domestic market, which could either tighten domestic inventory (bullish) or increase overall supply utilisation (bearish for domestic prices). In the near term this is a bearish signal for the natural gas price prediction for tomorrow.