Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank Prediction for Monday, 17 August 2026: Bajaj Finance Holds Rs 1,083 as Banking Exclusion Insulates This Variant From ICICI's -1.74% Thursday Fall

The Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday for Monday 17 August 2026 is shaped by Thursday's twin macro developments: MCX Crude Oil crashing -1.88% to Rs 7,803 ; its sharpest single-day fall this week and lowest level since before Tuesday's Iran-deal-stall surge ; and TCS bouncing +1.08% to Rs 2,356, confirming IT sector recovery after Wednesday's -3.93% crash. Nifty 50 closed at 24,354.85 (-0.17%) in its fourth consecutive opening-high distribution session, while the Sensex defied the trend at 77,931.10 (-0.19%). Bank Nifty slipped -0.43% to 57,459.10 after ICICI Bank fell -1.74%, blocking the Day 6 banking rotation for a second consecutive day. Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank is the sector tracked on Friday.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, frame the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday around crude oil's -1.88% Thursday fall as the dominant macro shift heading into Friday. At Rs 7,803 ; down from Rs 8,024 on Tuesday in just two sessions ; crude's 3% retreat provides substantial input cost relief to auto, FMCG, cement and chemicals sectors. Simultaneously, IT sector recovery (TCS -0.80% (Day 2 IT stalled), HCL Tech +0.34%) provides a second positive catalyst. Together, these two themes make the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday the most opportunity-rich of the week, even as banking consolidates after Thursday's ICICI Bank +0.40% (finally recovered Friday).

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Thursday's Market Recap for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

Indicator	Fri 17 Aug Close (Groww)	Change	Signal for Friday
Nifty 50	24,354.85	-0.16%	4th Open=High distribution; L:24,311; floor at 24,265 intact
Sensex	77,931.10	+0.15%	Only index green; TCS -0.80% (Day 2 IT stalled) drove this; L:77,399
Bank Nifty	57,459.10	-0.43%	Open=High session; ICICI +0.40% (finally recovered) primary drag; L:57,548
MCX Crude Oil	Rs 7,803/bbl	-1.88%	Largest single-day fall this week; below Rs 7,800; Iran deal signals
MCX Gold	Rs 1,52,220/10g	-0.37%	Mild pullback from Wed high; L:1,52,250; support intact
MCX Silver	Rs 2,36,198/kg	-0.80%	Correcting from Wed bounce; L:2,34,700
MCX Copper	Rs 1,373.55/kg	-0.29%	Mild dip; L:1,357.55; industrial demand intact
MCX Zinc	Rs 398.30/kg	-0.51%	L:390.45; supply deficit still alive
MCX Nat Gas	Rs 263.70/MMBTU	-0.60%	L:265.80; consolidating above Rs 265
TCS	Rs 2,356	+1.08%	IT Day 1 recovery; NASDAQ bounce confirmed; H:2,375
ICICI Bank	Rs 1,412.40	-1.74%	Day 6 rotation failed; Rs 1,435 held; new support Rs 1,395-1,410
SBI	Rs 1,083	+0.09%	PSU banking stable; H:1,086.80; floor at Rs 1,073
Reliance	Rs 1,317	-0.90%	Worst session this week; L:1,307.20; crude fall helps O2C Fri

Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday: Key Factors for Friday

• The Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday is entirely insulated from ICICI Bank's -1.74% and HDFC Bank's -0.55% Thursday falls. This banking exclusion makes it the financial services variant with the cleanest positive setup for Friday ; Bajaj Finance's Rs 1,083 floor defense and Muthoot Finance's gold AUM at Rs 1,52,220 are the two positive drivers, both intact through Thursday's session.
• Bajaj Finance at Rs 1,090.80 with Rs 1,083 intraday low held is the fourth consecutive session where the Rs 1,080-1,083 zone has been tested and defended. for Friday's session, four consecutive intraday floor defenses create a structural base ; institutional money is defending this level systematically in a way that confirms Friday's prediction is buy-on-dip not sell-on-strength.
• MCX Gold at Rs 1,52,220 (-0.37% Thursday) remains well above Rs 1,52,000 ; keeping Muthoot Finance gold loan collateral AUM at a strong level. for Friday's session, Muthoot's gold loan business is supported by gold staying above Thursday's intraday low of Rs 1,52,250. Ankit Jaiswal: Muthoot Finance above Rs 1,905 Friday = gold AUM floor confirmed.
• Crude oil crashing -1.88% to Rs 7,803 reduces consumer fuel costs ; improving NBFC (Bajaj Finance, Muthoot) borrower disposable income and loan repayment capacity. Kunal Singla identifies this as the structural consumer credit quality positive for Friday's session ; lower crude equals less household financial stress equals better NBFC asset quality outlook Friday.

Technical Levels for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

Level	Zone	Why It Matters
Primary Support	23,280-23,380	Confirmed buyer zone from Thursday's session; DII accumulation visible
Secondary Support	23,050-23,160	Deeper correction floor ; only matters if primary breaks on Friday
Immediate Resistance	23,560-23,660	First recovery target for Friday; partial booking zone
Extended Resistance	23,850-23,960	Breakout target if Friday session builds on Thursday momentum

Stocks Flagged for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

Stock	Thu Close	Entry Zone	Target	Stop Loss	Analyst	Why Now
Bajaj Finance	Rs 1,090.80 (-0.31% Thu)	Rs 1,082-1,092	Rs 1,118	Rs 1,062	Ankit Jaiswal	Dominant ex-bank constituent. Four-session Rs 1,080-1,083 floor. Crude -1.88% improves borrower disposable income. Primary Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday.
Muthoot Finance	Rs 1,910 est.	Rs 1,892-1,912	Rs 1,952	Rs 1,858	Kunal Singla	MCX Gold Rs 1,52,220 keeps gold loan AUM elevated. Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday gold-linked NBFC play.
Reliance Industries	Rs 1,317 (-0.90% Thu)	Rs 1,305-1,320	Rs 1,350	Rs 1,290	Ankit Jaiswal	Reliance financial services division (Jio Financial) tracks this variant. Crude -1.88% positive for Reliance O2C. Secondary Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday.

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Strategy for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday Session

1. Rs 23,280-23,380 is Friday's primary support. Bajaj Finance at Rs 1,082-1,092 entry and Muthoot Finance at Rs 1,892-1,912 are Friday's two primary picks.
2. Bajaj Finance above Rs 1,095 Friday = Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday amplified positive; Rs 23,560-23,660 first resistance.
3. Muthoot Finance above Rs 1,930 Friday = gold AUM improvement signal for Friday's session.
4. Kunal Singla: insurance sector (HDFC Life, SBI Life) recovery Friday as secondary Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday breadth positive ; insurance sector tracks broader equity confidence.

Key Risks to the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

• Bajaj Finance breaking below Rs 1,068 Friday, dominating the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday downward through its dominant constituent weight.
• Gold falling below Rs 1,52,000 Friday, reducing Muthoot Finance gold loan collateral AUM on Friday.
• VIX rising above 14.50 Friday, reducing insurance company AUM and sector valuation on Friday.

Conclusion

The Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday for Monday 17 August 2026 has crude oil's -1.88% Thursday fall to Rs 7,803 as its most important macro input. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest identifies primary support at 23,280-23,380 and immediate resistance at 23,560-23,660 for Friday's session, with the crude relief trade (auto, FMCG, cement) and IT recovery (TCS, HCL Tech) as Friday's two highest-conviction positive themes.

Kunal Singla of Univest adds that ICICI Bank's Thursday -1.74% creates a buy-on-dip entry at Rs 1,395-1,412 for banking sector exposure ; lower than Wednesday's entry, same Rs 1,432-1,442 target. Check GIFT Nifty above 24,420 and NASDAQ above 22,000 at 9 AM Friday as the two pre-market signals that confirm Friday's positive bias for Friday's session.

FAQs on Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank Prediction For Monday, 17 August 2026

What is the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday, 17 August 2026?

Ans. Mildly positive. Insulated from ICICI +0.40% (finally recovered) and HDFC -0.55% Thursday. Bajaj Finance four-session Rs 1,083 floor held. MCX Gold Rs 1,52,220 keeps Muthoot AUM elevated. Support 23,280-23,380, resistance 23,560-23,660.

Which analysts prepared the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest.

Why is the ex-bank variant positive while banking indices are cautious in the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday?

Ans. The ex-bank variant excludes ICICI Bank (-1.74% Thu) and HDFC Bank (-0.55%) from its calculation. Bajaj Finance's four-session Rs 1,083 floor defense and Muthoot Finance's gold AUM above Rs 1,52,000 are the positive drivers ; making the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday mildly positive where banking-inclusive indices are cautious.

What is support and resistance for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday?

Ans. Support 23,280-23,380 and 23,050-23,160. Resistance 23,560-23,660 and 23,850-23,960.

Which stocks are watched in the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday?

Ans. Bajaj Finance (four-session floor defense, dominant weight), Muthoot Finance (gold AUM) and Reliance Industries (Jio Financial context) on Friday.