Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank Prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026: Index Heavily Impacted by Bajaj Finance 5.84 Percent Crash as Banking Excluded

The Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday on Monday 10 August 2026 is shaped by Friday's session where Nifty 50 closed at 24,570.65 (down 65 points, -0.27%), Sensex fell 455 points to 78,499.17 and Bank Nifty lost 317 points to 57,746.45. The session's defining paradox: SBI Q1 FY27 beat strongly (PAT +10.23%, NIM recovered to exactly 3 percent, GNPA at a two-decade low of 1.47 percent) but Bajaj Finance crashed 5.84 percent and ICICI Bank fell 2.5 percent, dragging the financial sector. The top performers were Nifty Auto (+1.83 percent), Nifty IT (+1.42 percent led by TCS +3.36 percent) and MCX Gold (+1.40 percent) and MCX Silver (+3.19 percent). The Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank is the sectoral index for this prediction for Monday. The primary catalyst for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday is the US Non-Farm Payrolls for July 2026, released at 6 PM IST today after Indian market close, which will determine Monday's opening gap direction. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, present the complete Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday.

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Friday's Data Behind the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

Indicator	Friday 7 Aug Close (Groww Confirmed)	Change
Nifty 50	24,570.65	-65.35 pts (-0.27%)
Sensex	78,499.17	-455.59 pts (-0.58%)
Bank Nifty	57,746.45	-317.20 pts (-0.55%)
Nifty Auto	29,646.95	+1.83%; top sectoral gainer
Nifty IT	31,547.70	+1.42%; TCS +3.36%, HCL +1.62%, Infosys +0.87%
Nifty PSU Bank	8,786.20	+0.65%; SBI +1.12% on Q1 FY27 beat
Nifty Metal	13,189.85	+0.50%; Hindustan Zinc +2.20%
Nifty Private Bank	27,392.35	-1.04%; ICICI -2.50%, Axis -1.43%
SBI Q1 FY27	Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12%)	PAT Rs 21,121 cr (+10.23%); NIM 3.0%; GNPA 1.47% (2-decade low). High: Rs 1,124.5
Bajaj Finance	Rs 1,078 (-5.84%)	Biggest Nifty 50 loser; dragged Fin Services sector
MCX Gold (Aug Fut)	Rs 1,49,703/10g (+1.40%)	Strong surge; safe-haven demand
MCX Silver (Mini Aug)	Rs 2,34,741/kg (+3.19%)	Outperformed gold; industrial + safe-haven combined
MCX Crude Oil (Aug)	Rs 7,356/bbl (-0.28%)	Slight dip; Iran deal uncertainty continues
India VIX	12.16	Unchanged from previous close
US NFP (July 2026)	Released 6 PM IST today	Primary weekend catalyst for Monday gap direction

SBI Q1 FY27 and Bajaj Finance: Two Opposite Forces Behind the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

Friday's session presented two contradictory catalysts for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday. SBI delivered its strongest quarterly result in recent memory: PAT up 10.23 percent to Rs 21,121 crore, NIM recovered to exactly 3 percent from Q4 FY26's 2.93 percent and GNPA fell to 1.47 percent, a two-decade low. SBI surged to Rs 1,124.5 intraday before closing at Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12 percent). Simultaneously, Bajaj Finance crashed 5.84 percent to Rs 1,078, the biggest Nifty 50 loser, dragging the financial services sector. Ankit Jaiswal notes that the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday is shaped by which of these two forces dominates on Monday: SBI's confirmed earnings strength or Bajaj Finance's Q1 result-related concerns spilling into the broader NBFC sector.

Technical Levels for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

Level Type	Zone
Immediate Support	23,300-23,400
Key Support	23,000-23,100
Immediate Resistance	23,800-23,950
Key Resistance	24,100-24,200

Kunal Singla observes that India VIX closed Friday at 12.16, unchanged from Thursday's close. Stable VIX at 12-13 despite the broader market fall is structurally positive for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday: it means option sellers are not panicking and the August monthly series maintains a defined range. The Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday's support at 23,300-23,400 is the immediate floor heading into Monday.

US NFP: The Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday Primary Weekend Variable

US Non-Farm Payrolls for July 2026 releases at 6 PM IST today. A healthy NFP (175,000-230,000 range) supports a Monday gap-up in this outlook as Dow Jones rises and FII risk-on flows return to India on Monday morning. A weak NFP below 130,000 raises US recession concerns and creates a Monday gap-down in this outlook. Ankit Jaiswal recommends checking GIFT Nifty at 9 AM Monday before making any Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday position decisions.

Key Factors for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

• Bajaj Finance at approximately 20-25 percent effective weight in the ex-bank variant dominates the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday. Its 5.84 percent Friday crash removed 100-150 index points and is the primary concern for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday.
• Without banking stocks, the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday has no SBI Q1 FY27 beat as a positive offset. The index is entirely dependent on NBFC and insurance company performance for Monday's direction.
• If Bajaj Finance announces Q1 FY27 results over the weekend that clarify the crash reason, the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday would see a gap reversal (up if results are positive, down if they confirm concerns).
• US NFP improving FII risk appetite would primarily benefit banking stocks rather than NBFCs, making its positive impact on the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday limited compared to the standard index.

Stocks to Watch for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

Univest analysts flag the following stocks for educational observation in this outlook on Monday. These are not buy or sell recommendations.

Bajaj Finance: CMP Rs 1,078 (-5.84% Fri). Ankit Jaiswal flags entry Rs 1,065-1,078 (after Q1 clarity), target Rs 1,130, SL Rs 1,038. Bajaj Finance is the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday's dominant stock. Weekend Q1 FY27 results or clarification of Friday's crash reason is the primary event to watch.

Muthoot Finance: CMP Rs 1,900 est.. Kunal Singla flags entry Rs 1,880-1,895, target Rs 1,945, SL Rs 1,852. Muthoot Finance's gold loan AUM benefits from MCX Gold surging 1.40 percent to Rs 1,49,703 on Friday. If Bajaj Finance stays weak, Muthoot becomes the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday's alternative positive.

HDFC Bank: CMP Rs 731 (-0.45% Fri). Ankit Jaiswal flags entry Rs 725-730, target Rs 748, SL Rs 714. HDFC Bank is tracked as the banking sector benchmark for context in this outlook even though it is excluded from this index.

Screen All Stocks for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday on Univest

Trading Strategy for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

1. 23,300-23,400 is the immediate support for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday.
2. 23,800-23,950 is the first resistance in this outlook.
3. Monitor Bajaj Finance at Monday open as the primary Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday direction signal.
4. Muthoot Finance and insurance stocks (HDFC Life, IPRU Life) are the alternative recovery signals if Bajaj Finance remains weak in this outlook.

Risks to the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday

• Bajaj Finance extending its Friday decline on Monday below Rs 1,040 in this outlook.
• NBFC sector contagion from Bajaj Finance spreading to Muthoot Finance and other NBFCs in this outlook.
• Insurance sector weakness from equity market AUM declines reducing insurance company valuations in this outlook.

Conclusion

The Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday on Monday 10 August 2026 is built on Friday's close of Approx. 23,400-23,800 (Significantly down (Bajaj Fin -5.84% dominant weight without banks)), from a session where Nifty Auto (+1.83 percent), Nifty IT (+1.42 percent) and MCX precious metals (Gold +1.40 percent, Silver +3.19 percent) were the week's bright spots while Bajaj Finance (-5.84 percent) and ICICI Bank (-2.5 percent) created financial sector drag. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest identifies 23,800-23,950 as the primary resistance and 23,300-23,400 as the critical support for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday. The US NFP at 6 PM IST today is the primary variable: monitor GIFT Nifty Sunday evening and at 9 AM Monday before positioning for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday.

Kunal Singla of Univest notes that the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday has a dual structure for Monday: the recovery case (IT and Auto momentum continues, SBI Q1 beat sustains, NFP healthy) and the continuation decline case (Bajaj Finance concerns spread to NBFCs, private banks extend selling, weak NFP). The Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday's support zone at 23,300-23,400 is the line between these two scenarios on Monday.

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FAQs on Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank Prediction For Monday, 10 August 2026

What is the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026?

Ans. The Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday is bearish. Bajaj Finance crashed 5.84 percent on Friday and dominates this index. Without banking stocks to provide any positive offset, support is 23,300-23,400 and resistance is 23,800-23,950 in this outlook.

Why is the ex-bank variant most impacted in the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday?

Ans. The ex-bank variant excludes HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI. Without SBI's +1.12 percent (from Q1 FY27 beat) providing any offset, Bajaj Finance's 5.84 percent crash dominates the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday fully.

Which analysts prepared the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, prepared the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday.

What is support and resistance for the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday?

Ans. Support is 23,300-23,400 and 23,000-23,100. Resistance is 23,800-23,950 and 24,100-24,200 in this outlook.

What stocks are watched in the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday?

Ans. Bajaj Finance (primary risk; Q1 clarity needed), Muthoot Finance (gold loan AUM beneficiary of Rs 1,49,703 MCX Gold) and HDFC Bank (sector benchmark reference) are watched in the Nifty Financial Services Ex Bank prediction for Monday.