Crude Oil Price Prediction for Monday: Iran Supply Risk Sustains Four-Session Rally for 24 August 2026

The crude oil price prediction for Monday follows a Friday session where MCX Crude Sep opened at Rs 8,271, reached Rs 8,384, pulled back to Rs 8,224, and settled at Rs 8,353. Ankit Jaiswal, Research Analyst at Univest, notes that the pullback from the high and the flat-to-slightly-positive close show that profit-taking is active near Rs 8,380 to 8,400 — precisely the resistance zone identified in the crude oil price prediction for Monday. A Monday open above Rs 8,300 would signal that the profit-taking was absorbed and the crude oil price prediction for Monday remains bullish.

Kunal Singla, Research Analyst at Univest, observes that the crude oil price prediction for Monday is supported by Reliance Industries closing at Rs 1,316 (+0.21%) and ONGC (+0.88%) on Friday — both oil-linked equities confirming the sector-level bullishness. Additionally, the MCX Crude Oil Sep contract options market shows strong call buying at Rs 8,400 and Rs 8,500 strikes, suggesting institutional traders expect the crude oil price prediction for Monday to deliver a break above Rs 8,400 within the near term.

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Today's Market Recap: Crude Oil on 21 August 2026

Crude Oil Price Prediction for Monday: Technical Analysis

Ankit Jaiswal's crude oil price prediction for Monday identifies Rs 8,280 to 8,300 as the immediate support. This zone sits between Friday's close (Rs 8,353) and Friday's low (Rs 8,224), representing the consolidation base for any Monday dip-buying in the crude oil price prediction for Monday. A break below Rs 8,280 would signal profit-taking is gaining momentum, with Rs 8,224 as the next support in the crude oil price prediction for Monday.

On the upside, Rs 8,384 is the first resistance in the crude oil price prediction for Monday. Kunal Singla notes a break above Rs 8,400 would represent a new multi-week high for MCX Crude and confirm the crude oil price prediction for Monday as outright bullish, targeting Rs 8,450 to 8,500.

Trend for Monday 24 August 2026: Bullish
Support: Rs 8,280 to 8,300 | Rs 8,224
Resistance: Rs 8,384 | Rs 8,450 to 8,500

Global Cues for Crude Oil Prediction for Monday

• COMEX Overnight: COMEX gold and silver levels Monday morning are the primary pre-open cue for MCX precious metals on Monday. Watch spot gold above $3,400/oz and silver above $30.50/oz.
• Iran-Strait of Hormuz: Ongoing supply risk remains the dominant crude oil and commodity driver for Monday. Any weekend escalation or resolution will be the primary opening catalyst.
• US Dollar Index: A weaker DXY heading into Monday would support precious metals and commodities across the board on Monday.

Key Events for Monday 24 August 2026

• MCX Silver Mini and Copper 24 Aug options expire Monday 24 August — elevated intraday volatility expected in early Monday trade
• COMEX levels Monday morning set the MCX precious metal opening for Monday
• Iran-Strait of Hormuz weekend news is the primary catalyst for crude oil and energy commodities on Monday
• US EIA natural gas report and OPEC+ communications over the weekend will shape the energy complex on Monday

Oil and Gas Stocks to Watch in Crude Oil Price Prediction for Monday

Stock	21 Aug Close (Rs)	Change	Key Level for Monday
ONGC	238	+0.88%	Support: 235 | Resistance: 241
Reliance Industries	8,353	+0.21%	Support: 1,308 | Resistance: 1,316
BPCL	313	+0.60%	Support: 310 | Resistance: 318
Indian Oil Corporation	158	+0.40%	Support: 156 | Resistance: 161
GAIL India	203	-0.20%	Support: 200 | Resistance: 208

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Strategy for Crude Oil on Monday 24 August 2026

• Buy MCX Crude (Sep) on dips to Rs 8,280 with stop below Rs 8,180 targeting Rs 8,384 in the crude oil price prediction for Monday
• A break above Rs 8,400 in the crude oil price prediction for Monday targets Rs 8,450 to 8,500; trail stop to Rs 8,280 once Rs 8,400 is cleared
• Check COMEX WTI above $82-83/bbl Monday morning as the pre-open bullish confirmation for the crude oil price prediction for Monday
• Monitor Iran-Hormuz news before the Monday MCX open — any weekend developments will directly shape the crude oil price prediction for Monday

What Does Sentiment Indicate for Crude Oil Prediction for Monday?

Sentiment for the crude oil price prediction for Monday is bullish, driven by the four-session Iran-Strait of Hormuz supply risk premium. Ankit Jaiswal notes that MCX Crude's 3.1% weekly gain from Rs 8,097 to Rs 8,353 was achieved in a measured, daily-incremental pattern rather than a spike, which suggests genuine supply-concern buying rather than speculative momentum in the crude oil price prediction for Monday.

Kunal Singla observes that the crude oil price prediction for Monday is further validated by the energy equity sector: Nifty Oil and Gas gaining 1.07% on Friday and ONGC specifically gaining 0.88% shows that institutional equity investors are already positioning for sustained crude oil prices. This equity-side confirmation historically precedes continued commodity price strength in the crude oil price prediction for Monday.

Risks to Crude Oil Prediction for Monday

• A surprise Iran-Hormuz diplomatic resolution would remove the supply risk premium and reverse the crude oil price prediction for Monday sharply lower
• OPEC+ surprise output increase statement over the weekend would weigh on the crude oil price prediction for Monday
• COMEX WTI falling below $80/bbl would create a gap-down Monday MCX opening in the crude oil price prediction for Monday
• A broad global risk-off event would reduce energy demand expectations and pressure the crude oil price prediction for Monday

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Conclusion

The crude oil price prediction for Monday, 24 August 2026, is bullish. MCX Crude (Sep) closed at Rs 8,353/bbl (+0.61%) on 21 August — its fourth consecutive positive session. Ankit Jaiswal places support at Rs 8,280 and resistance at Rs 8,384 for the crude oil price outlook for 24 August.

Kunal Singla notes the four-session Iran-driven rally and Nifty Oil and Gas's 1.07% Friday gain validate the Monday's MCX crude oil price forecast as bullish. Check COMEX WTI overnight. Download the Univest app for live MCX crude oil updates.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest Research Analyst Registration No. INH000013776.

Frequently Asked Questions on Crude Oil Prediction for Monday

What is the Wednesday's crude oil price outlook, 24 August 2026?

Ans. the 24 August crude oil price outlook is bullish. MCX Crude Oil (Sep 21 contract) closed at Rs 8,353/bbl (+0.61%) on Friday 21 August — its fourth consecutive positive session, driven by Iran-Strait of Hormuz supply concerns. Ankit Jaiswal places support at Rs 8,280 to 8,300 and resistance at Rs 8,384 for the MCX crude oil price forecast for Monday.

What is the weekly crude oil performance context for Monday?

Ans. MCX Crude Oil (Sep) has gained approximately 3.1% over four sessions from Tuesday's Rs 8,097 close to Friday's Rs 8,353. This sustained four-session rally on geopolitical support is the strongest weekly crude oil performance in the crude oil price's 21 August outlook analysis. Kunal Singla notes this trajectory supports the crude oil price outlook for 24 August being bullish.

What are MCX crude oil support and resistance for Monday 24 August 2026?

Ans. The Monday's MCX crude oil price forecast places immediate support at Rs 8,280 to 8,300 with strong support at Rs 8,224 (Friday's low). Resistance stands at Rs 8,384 (Friday's high) and stronger resistance at Rs 8,450. A Monday break above Rs 8,400 in the Wednesday's crude oil price outlook would target Rs 8,450 to 8,500.

How does the Iran-Strait of Hormuz situation affect crude oil prediction for Monday?

Ans. The Iran-Strait of Hormuz supply risk is the primary driver of the four-session MCX Crude rally. For the 24 August crude oil price outlook, any escalation over the weekend would add to the supply risk premium and create a gap-up MCX opening. A diplomatic development would cause a sharp reversal in the MCX crude oil price forecast for Monday. Monitoring weekend Iran news is essential before the Monday MCX open.

What is the crude oil trading strategy for Monday 24 August 2026?

Ans. For the crude oil price's 21 August outlook, Ankit Jaiswal recommends buying on dips to Rs 8,280 with stop below Rs 8,180 targeting Rs 8,384. A break above Rs 8,400 targets Rs 8,450 to 8,500 in the crude oil price outlook for 24 August. Kunal Singla advises checking COMEX WTI above $82-83/bbl as the pre-open bullish confirmation for Monday.