Crude Oil Price Prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026: MCX Crude at Rs 7,356 as Iran Deal Uncertainty and Precious Metals Safe-Haven Surge Create Divergent Energy Market

The crude oil price prediction for Monday on Monday 10 August 2026 is shaped by Friday's session where Nifty 50 closed at 24,570.65 (down 65 points, -0.27%), Sensex fell 455 points to 78,499.17 and Bank Nifty lost 317 points to 57,746.45. The session's defining paradox: SBI Q1 FY27 beat strongly (PAT +10.23%, NIM recovered to exactly 3 percent, GNPA at a two-decade low of 1.47 percent) but Bajaj Finance crashed 5.84 percent and ICICI Bank fell 2.5 percent, dragging the financial sector. The top performers were Nifty Auto (+1.83 percent), Nifty IT (+1.42 percent led by TCS +3.36 percent) and MCX Gold (+1.40 percent) and MCX Silver (+3.19 percent). The primary catalyst for the crude oil price prediction for Monday is the US Non-Farm Payrolls for July 2026, released at 6 PM IST today after Indian market close, which will determine Monday's opening gap direction. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, present the complete crude oil price prediction for Monday.

Click Here – Get Free Investment Predictions

Friday's Data Behind the crude oil price prediction for Monday

Indicator	Friday 7 Aug Close (Groww Confirmed)	Change
Nifty 50	24,570.65	-65.35 pts (-0.27%)
Sensex	78,499.17	-455.59 pts (-0.58%)
Bank Nifty	57,746.45	-317.20 pts (-0.55%)
Nifty Auto	29,646.95	+1.83%; top sectoral gainer
Nifty IT	31,547.70	+1.42%; TCS +3.36%, HCL +1.62%, Infosys +0.87%
Nifty PSU Bank	8,786.20	+0.65%; SBI +1.12% on Q1 FY27 beat
Nifty Metal	13,189.85	+0.50%; Hindustan Zinc +2.20%
Nifty Private Bank	27,392.35	-1.04%; ICICI -2.50%, Axis -1.43%
SBI Q1 FY27	Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12%)	PAT Rs 21,121 cr (+10.23%); NIM 3.0%; GNPA 1.47% (2-decade low). High: Rs 1,124.5
Bajaj Finance	Rs 1,078 (-5.84%)	Biggest Nifty 50 loser; dragged Fin Services sector
MCX Gold (Aug Fut)	Rs 1,49,703/10g (+1.40%)	Strong surge; safe-haven demand
MCX Silver (Mini Aug)	Rs 2,34,741/kg (+3.19%)	Outperformed gold; industrial + safe-haven combined
MCX Crude Oil (Aug)	Rs 7,356/bbl (-0.28%)	Slight dip; Iran deal uncertainty continues
India VIX	12.16	Unchanged from previous close
US NFP (July 2026)	Released 6 PM IST today	Primary weekend catalyst for Monday gap direction

SBI Q1 FY27 and Bajaj Finance: Two Opposite Forces Behind the crude oil price prediction for Monday

Friday's session presented two contradictory catalysts for the crude oil price prediction for Monday. SBI delivered its strongest quarterly result in recent memory: PAT up 10.23 percent to Rs 21,121 crore, NIM recovered to exactly 3 percent from Q4 FY26's 2.93 percent and GNPA fell to 1.47 percent, a two-decade low. SBI surged to Rs 1,124.5 intraday before closing at Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12 percent). Simultaneously, Bajaj Finance crashed 5.84 percent to Rs 1,078, the biggest Nifty 50 loser, dragging the financial services sector. Ankit Jaiswal notes that the crude oil price prediction for Monday is shaped by which of these two forces dominates on Monday: SBI's confirmed earnings strength or Bajaj Finance's Q1 result-related concerns spilling into the broader NBFC sector.

Technical Levels for the crude oil price prediction for Monday

Level Type	Zone
Immediate Support	Rs 7,200-7,250
Key Support	Rs 7,050-7,100
Immediate Resistance	Rs 7,500-7,550
Key Resistance	Rs 7,700-7,800

Kunal Singla observes that India VIX closed Friday at 12.16, unchanged from Thursday's close. Stable VIX at 12-13 despite the broader market fall is structurally positive for the crude oil price prediction for Monday: it means option sellers are not panicking and the August monthly series maintains a defined range. The crude oil price prediction for Monday's support at Rs 7,200-7,250 is the immediate floor heading into Monday.

US NFP: The crude oil price prediction for Monday Primary Weekend Variable

US Non-Farm Payrolls for July 2026 releases at 6 PM IST today. A healthy NFP (175,000-230,000 range) supports a Monday gap-up in this outlook as Dow Jones rises and FII risk-on flows return to India on Monday morning. A weak NFP below 130,000 raises US recession concerns and creates a Monday gap-down in this outlook. Ankit Jaiswal recommends checking GIFT Nifty at 9 AM Monday before making any crude oil price prediction for Monday position decisions.

Key Factors for the crude oil price prediction for Monday

• MCX Crude Oil at Rs 7,356 (-0.28 percent) on Friday while gold surged 1.40 percent creates the crude oil price prediction for Monday's defining context: the same Iran-Oman Strait uncertainty that is keeping crude below Rs 7,600 is also supporting gold through safe-haven demand. The two are inversely correlated in this environment.
• Auto sector surging 1.83 percent on Friday as the Nifty Auto index hit 29,646.95 confirms that crude at Rs 7,356 (below Rs 7,500) maintains the vehicle fuel cost improvement narrative that is structurally positive for the crude oil price prediction for Monday's downstream impact.
• US NFP at 6 PM IST today is the crude oil price prediction for Monday's macro demand catalyst. Strong NFP confirming US economic health supports crude demand expectations; weak NFP raises recession fears and would send crude toward Rs 7,050-7,100.
• Iran deal formally confirmed before Monday open is the single biggest downside risk for the crude oil price prediction for Monday, potentially sending MCX Crude to Rs 6,500-6,800 as the Strait risk premium deflates entirely.

Stocks to Watch for the crude oil price prediction for Monday

Univest analysts flag the following stocks for educational observation in this outlook on Monday. These are not buy or sell recommendations.

ONGC: CMP Rs 238.85 (+0.44% Fri). Ankit Jaiswal flags entry Rs 236-238, target Rs 247, SL Rs 228. ONGC's Q2 FY27 realization directly tracks MCX Crude direction. Friday's +0.44 percent confirms the Rs 7,356 crude level is already positive for ONGC in this outlook.

Reliance Industries: CMP Rs 1,334.80 (+0.74% Fri). Kunal Singla flags entry Rs 1,320-1,330, target Rs 1,360, SL Rs 1,298. Reliance is net-neutral in this outlook as O2C feedstock benefits from lower crude while upstream realization tracks crude direction.

BPCL: CMP Rs 321 (-0.83% Fri). Ankit Jaiswal flags entry Rs 315-320, target Rs 335, SL Rs 306. BPCL's refining margin improves with crude easing. An Iran deal would be very bullish for BPCL's gross refining margins in this outlook.

Screen All Stocks for the crude oil price prediction for Monday on Univest

Trading Strategy for the crude oil price prediction for Monday

1. Monitor Iran news Sunday evening. No formal deal = crude oil price prediction for Monday maintains Rs 7,200-7,550 range; formal deal = gap-down to Rs 6,500-6,800.
2. Rs 7,200-7,250 is the buy-on-dip zone for the crude oil price prediction for Monday in the no-deal scenario. Ankit Jaiswal recommends entry here with Rs 7,050 stop.
3. Rs 7,500-7,550 is the first resistance in this outlook. Kunal Singla recommends booking positions near this level.
4. Track ONGC and BPCL opening prices Monday as opposite-direction signals for the crude oil price prediction for Monday: ONGC up = crude positive; BPCL up = crude down (refining margin expansion).

Risks to the crude oil price prediction for Monday

• Iran formal deal before Monday open sending MCX Crude gap-down toward Rs 6,500-6,800 in this outlook.
• OPEC+ emergency production cut reversing crude's mild decline and pushing toward Rs 7,800 in the crude oil price prediction for Monday.
• US NFP weakness signalling demand slowdown sending crude below Rs 7,100 in the crude oil price prediction for Monday.

Conclusion

The crude oil price prediction for Monday on Monday 10 August 2026 is built on Friday's close of Rs 7,356 per barrel (MCX Crude Aug Fut) (-Rs 21 (-0.28%)), from a session where Nifty Auto (+1.83 percent), Nifty IT (+1.42 percent) and MCX precious metals (Gold +1.40 percent, Silver +3.19 percent) were the week's bright spots while Bajaj Finance (-5.84 percent) and ICICI Bank (-2.5 percent) created financial sector drag. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest identifies Rs 7,500-7,550 as the primary resistance and Rs 7,200-7,250 as the critical support for the crude oil price prediction for Monday. The US NFP at 6 PM IST today is the primary variable: monitor GIFT Nifty Sunday evening and at 9 AM Monday before positioning for the crude oil price prediction for Monday.

Kunal Singla of Univest notes that the crude oil price prediction for Monday has a dual structure for Monday: the recovery case (IT and Auto momentum continues, SBI Q1 beat sustains, NFP healthy) and the continuation decline case (Bajaj Finance concerns spread to NBFCs, private banks extend selling, weak NFP). The crude oil price prediction for Monday's support zone at Rs 7,200-7,250 is the line between these two scenarios on Monday.

Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track live levels and receive NFP-driven alerts for the crude oil price prediction for Monday on Monday.

FAQs on Crude Oil Price Prediction For Monday, 10 August 2026

What is the crude oil price prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026?

Ans. The crude oil price prediction for Monday is range-bound with downside risk from Iran deal. MCX Crude fell 0.28 percent to Rs 7,356 on Friday. Support is Rs 7,200-7,250 and resistance is Rs 7,500-7,550. Iran deal formally confirmed overnight is the primary downside catalyst in the crude oil price prediction for Monday.

Which analysts prepared the crude oil price prediction for Monday?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, prepared the crude oil price prediction for Monday using Groww-confirmed MCX Crude data of Rs 7,356 per barrel.

Why did crude fall while gold surged on Friday in the crude oil price prediction for Monday context?

Ans. Crude falling 0.28 percent while gold surged 1.40 percent on the same day reflects the safe-haven rotation dynamic: investors sold equities and energy (partly on Iran deal hopes) and bought gold for safety. The crude oil price prediction for Monday is inversely correlated to gold in this environment.

What is MCX Crude support and resistance for the crude oil price prediction for Monday?

Ans. Support is Rs 7,200-7,250 and Rs 7,050-7,100. Resistance is Rs 7,500-7,550 and Rs 7,700-7,800 in the crude oil price prediction for Monday.

How does an Iran deal affect the crude oil price prediction for Monday?

Ans. A formal Iran deal confirmed before Monday open would send MCX Crude gap-down toward Rs 6,500-6,800 as the Strait of Hormuz risk premium fully deflates in the crude oil price prediction for Monday. This would be positive for BPCL refining margins and Auto input costs.