Stock Market Prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026: Nifty Nears July Highs as RBI Verdict Week Begins

The stock market prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026, centres on one question: can the Nifty 50 clear the 24,430 to 24,530 band that capped it back on 6 and 7 July, or does the RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting starting the same day pull traders to the sidelines? The Nifty closed Friday at 24,383.60, up 66.45 points or 0.27 percent, while the Sensex ended at 78,094.64, up 166.49 points or 0.21 percent, and the Bank Nifty settled at 57,264.85, up 117.35 points or 0.21 percent. India VIX slipped 3.29 percent to 11.76, its calmest reading in weeks, which shapes a measured tone for the stock market prediction for Monday rather than a fearful one.

This stock market prediction for Monday has been prepared by Univest analysts Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director, using Friday closing data, moving averages, options positioning and global cues gathered ahead of the weekend. Ankit Jaiswal builds the technical case for the Nifty 50 and Sensex, while Kunal Singla reads the Bank Nifty and derivatives picture for a week that opens with the RBI policy meeting and closes with two index expiries.

Friday's Market Recap Behind the Stock Market Prediction for Monday

• Nifty 50 closed at 24,383.60 (+0.27%), Sensex at 78,094.64 (+0.21%) and Bank Nifty at 57,264.85 (+0.21%), with the Nifty holding a five day recovery from the 23,606 low of 24 July, a base this stock market prediction for Monday leans on.
• Sectoral action was mixed: Nifty Auto jumped 1.64 percent on Mahindra and Mahindra strength, while Nifty IT fell 1.56 percent as TCS dropped 2.72 percent and Infosys lost 2.16 percent. Nifty FMCG slipped 1.05 percent and Nifty Pharma added 0.72 percent.
• India VIX eased to 11.76, and FIIs stayed net buyers with Rs 3,623.50 crore of cash inflows on 30 July even as DIIs booked Rs 1,864.03 crore of net sales, a combination that supports the bullish lean in this stock market prediction for Monday.

Nifty 50 and Sensex Levels for the Stock Market Prediction for Monday

Index	Close (31 Jul)	Change	Support	Resistance
Nifty 50	24,383.60	+0.27%	24,300 / 24,150	24,430 / 24,530
Sensex	78,094.64	+0.21%	77,800 / 77,400	78,300 / 78,520
Bank Nifty	57,264.85	+0.21%	57,000 / 56,650	57,450 / 57,700

Ankit Jaiswal notes that the Nifty 50 is sitting just under its 200 day moving average of 24,778 while comfortably above its 50 day average of 23,903, a setup he reads as constructive but not yet in breakout territory. A close above 24,430 in Monday trade would open the door to 24,530 and then 24,650, while a slip below 24,300 could drag the index back toward 24,150. This range is the backbone of the stock market prediction for Monday across both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex, given the two indices have moved almost in lockstep since the 24 July low.

Bank Nifty Prediction for Monday

Kunal Singla flags the Bank Nifty as the weakest link in this stock market prediction for Monday, with its 14 day RSI at 41.5 versus 54.7 for the Nifty 50, reflecting two weeks of underperformance driven by HDFC Bank, which fell 0.77 percent on Friday even as the broader index closed green. The Bank Nifty needs to clear its 200 day moving average near 57,450 to confirm strength; failing that, support sits at 57,000 and then the 50 day average near 56,650. Private banks were flat on Friday while PSU banks outperformed, a rotation Kunal Singla is watching heading into the RBI policy week and a key variable in this stock market prediction for Monday.

Global Cues Shaping the Stock Market Prediction for Monday

• Wall Street staged a sharp Thursday rebound, with the Dow Jones up 1.19 percent to 52,208.06, the S&P 500 up 1.66 percent to 7,437.63 and the Nasdaq surging 2.78 percent to 25,122.18 on a Microsoft led rally, a day after a Fed driven selloff that had knocked the Dow down more than 2 percent.
• Brent crude settled at 89.03 dollars a barrel on Thursday, down 1.88 percent after an earlier intraday spike to 93.31 dollars on fresh Iran related strikes, while WTI eased to 83.59 dollars, both trends the stock market prediction for Monday treats as a moderating but still elevated risk.
• Gift Nifty August futures were trading around 24,422 on Friday morning, and the weekend Wall Street session plus any escalation in the Iran-US standoff will set the actual gap for Monday, alongside Asian market cues at the Monday open.

Key Events and Triggers for the Stock Market Prediction for Monday

• The RBI Monetary Policy Committee begins its three day meeting on Monday, 3 August, with the repo rate decision due Wednesday, 5 August. The repo rate has held at 5.25 percent through three straight reviews, and any shift in tone this week will move rate sensitive stocks first.
• The Nifty 50 has its weekly F&O expiry on Tuesday, 4 August, and the Sensex weekly expiry follows on Thursday, 6 August. Monday itself carries no index expiry, which should keep option driven volatility contained.
• Q1 FY27 earnings season stays busy into next week, with results flow continuing to test the domestic demand versus export headwind theme that has defined this reporting cycle.

Sectors to Watch in the Stock Market Prediction for Monday

Sector rotation is central to this stock market prediction for Monday, since the Nifty 50's headline gain on Friday masked a wide spread between the best and worst performing groups.

• Auto: Nifty Auto led Friday with a 1.64 percent gain as Mahindra and Mahindra jumped 3.5 percent to 3,398.50, and Ankit Jaiswal is watching whether that momentum can extend once the new trading week opens.
• IT: Nifty IT was the weakest sector on Friday as TCS fell 2.72 percent to 2,365.60 and Infosys dropped 2.16 percent to 1,130.10, even as the Nasdaq rallied overnight in the US, a divergence this stock market prediction for Monday flags as worth tracking for a bounce.
• Banking: HDFC Bank lagged on Friday while ICICI Bank and State Bank of India stayed marginally positive, and Kunal Singla suggests watching whether private banks catch up once the RBI policy tone becomes clearer.

Stock Market Prediction for Monday: Trading Strategy

• Use 24,300 on the Nifty 50 as the pivot for the session; a hold above it keeps the bullish reading in this stock market prediction for Monday intact.
• Avoid oversized fresh positions ahead of Wednesday's RBI decision, since policy surprises tend to move rate sensitive names sharply within a single session, a caution built into every stock market prediction for Monday this week.
• Track Bank Nifty separately from the Nifty 50 this week, since the RSI gap between the two indices suggests they may not move in tandem into the policy verdict.
• Respect stop losses below the day's support levels rather than averaging into a losing position, particularly with the Nifty weekly expiry falling on Tuesday.

What Market Sentiment Tells the Stock Market Prediction for Monday

India VIX easing to 11.76 on Friday, down 3.29 percent, is one of the calmest readings of the past month and suggests options markets are not pricing a violent move into the RBI verdict, a point Ankit Jaiswal considers meaningful support for the constructive tone in this stock market prediction for Monday. FIIs turned net buyers of Rs 3,623.50 crore in the cash segment on 30 July, extending a run of inflows that has helped the Nifty 50 claw back nearly all of its late July losses, even as DIIs booked Rs 1,864.03 crore of net sales the same session, a typical pattern when foreign flows turn positive and domestic funds use the strength to book some profit.

Kunal Singla notes that the derivatives market has stayed comparatively calm through the recovery, without the sharp put writing or aggressive call buying that usually signals an overheated setup, which keeps this stock market prediction for Monday leaning toward a range with an upward bias rather than a runaway rally. The combination of a low VIX, positive FII flows and a Nifty 50 sitting just under a well defined resistance band is, in Ankit Jaiswal's view, a classic pre event setup where the market waits for the RBI outcome before committing to a fresh direction.

Risks to the Stock Market Prediction for Monday

• A hawkish RBI tone on Wednesday, even without a rate change, could pressure banking and rate sensitive stocks starting as early as Monday on positioning ahead of the verdict, the single biggest risk to this stock market prediction for Monday.
• Any fresh escalation in the Iran-US standoff over the weekend could push Brent crude back above 90 dollars a barrel, a level that has historically pressured Indian equities through the oil import bill.
• A reversal in Thursday's Wall Street rally when US markets reopen Friday night could flip Gift Nifty's current mild positive bias into a flat to negative opening signal for Monday.
• IT sector weakness, visible in Friday's TCS and Infosys declines, could persist and cap the Nifty 50's upside even if banking and auto stocks hold firm, a divergence this stock market prediction for Monday will keep tracking.

Conclusion

The stock market prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026, is cautiously constructive, with the Nifty 50 expected to trade in a 24,300 to 24,530 band as traders position ahead of the RBI policy verdict due Wednesday. Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla both flag the calm VIX reading and steady FII buying as reasons to lean bullish, while cautioning that Bank Nifty's relative weakness and the ongoing Iran-US tensions keep the setup a genuine two way affair rather than a one directional call. A close above 24,430 would strengthen the bullish case in this stock market prediction for Monday, while a break below 24,300 would shift the bias back toward caution.

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What is the stock market prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026?

Ans. The stock market prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026, is cautiously bullish, with the Nifty 50 expected to trade between 24,300 support and 24,430 to 24,530 resistance as the RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting begins the same day.

Will the Nifty 50 open higher or lower on Monday?

Ans. Gift Nifty was trading near 24,422 on Friday morning, indicating a flat to mildly positive start, though the actual Monday open will depend on Friday's Wall Street close and any weekend developments in the Iran-US situation.

What do Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla say in this stock market prediction for Monday?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal expects the Nifty 50 and Sensex to hold their recent recovery while testing resistance near 24,430 to 24,530, while Kunal Singla flags Bank Nifty's weaker RSI reading of 41.5 as a sign the banking index may lag the headline recovery.

Is there an F&O expiry on Monday, 3 August 2026?

Ans. No. Monday carries no index expiry. The Nifty 50 weekly expiry falls on Tuesday, 4 August, and the Sensex weekly expiry falls on Thursday, 6 August.

How will the RBI MPC meeting affect the stock market prediction for Monday?

Ans. The RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting runs from 3 to 5 August, with the repo rate decision due Wednesday. The repo rate has held at 5.25 percent for three straight reviews, and traders are likely to stay cautious on rate sensitive stocks into the verdict.

Which sectors look strongest in the stock market prediction for Monday?

Ans. Auto led Friday's session with a 1.64 percent gain on Nifty Auto, driven by Mahindra and Mahindra's 3.5 percent rally, while IT was the weakest sector as TCS and Infosys both fell more than 2 percent.

What is the Nifty 50 support and resistance for Monday?

Ans. The Nifty 50 has support at 24,300 and then 24,150, with resistance at 24,430 and 24,530 based on Friday's close of 24,383.60 and the index's 50 and 200 day moving averages.

Should traders take fresh positions ahead of the RBI policy decision?

Ans. Univest analysts suggest keeping fresh positions modest ahead of Wednesday's RBI verdict, since policy surprises can move rate sensitive stocks sharply within a session, and consulting a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.