Sensex Prediction for Tomorrow, 10 August 2026: ICICI Bank Recovery at Rs 1,421 Is the Key to Reversing Friday's 455-Point Decline

The Sensex prediction for tomorrow on Monday 10 August 2026 has a clear asymmetry built in from Friday's composition dynamics. Sensex closed at 78,499.17, falling 455 points (-0.58 percent) ; more than double the percentage decline of Nifty 50 (-0.27 percent). The reason: ICICI Bank at approximately 7 percent Sensex weight fell 2.5 percent, removing approximately 138 Sensex points in one stock's move. The Sensex prediction for tomorrow for tomorrow therefore has a mirror image opportunity: when ICICI Bank reverses its decline on Monday, the same composition logic works in this outlook's favour. A 2 percent ICICI Bank recovery would add approximately 138 Sensex points to the Sensex prediction for tomorrow directly, creating a disproportionate Sensex recovery versus Nifty. Published on Sunday August 9, this Sensex prediction for tomorrow benefits from knowing Friday's US NFP result and the Dow Jones close, completing the information picture for tomorrow. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, present the complete Sensex prediction for tomorrow.

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Friday's Confirmed Close Behind the Sensex Prediction for Tomorrow

Index/Stock	Last Trading Day (Fri 7 Aug)	Change
Nifty 50	24,570.65	-65.35 pts (-0.27%)
Sensex	78,499.17	-455.59 pts (-0.58%)
Bank Nifty	57,746.45	-317.20 pts (-0.55%)
Nifty Auto	29,646.95	+1.83%; top sectoral performer
Nifty IT	31,547.70	+1.42%; TCS +3.36%, HCL +1.62%
Nifty PSU Bank	8,786.20	+0.65%; SBI Q1 FY27 beat
Nifty Private Bank	27,392.35	-1.04%; ICICI -2.50%, Axis -1.43%
SBI Q1 FY27	Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12%)	PAT Rs 21,121 cr (+10.23%); NIM 3.0%; GNPA 1.47% (2-decade low)
Bajaj Finance	Rs 1,078 (-5.84%)	Biggest Nifty 50 loser; NBFC sector concern heading into Monday
MCX Gold	Rs 1,49,703/10g (+1.40%)	Safe-haven demand on equity weakness
MCX Silver	Rs 2,34,741/kg (+3.19%)	Outperformed gold; GSR compression continues
India VIX	12.16	Unchanged; stable volatility heading into the weekend

The Composition Asymmetry in the Sensex Prediction for Tomorrow

Friday created a specific arithmetic setup for the Sensex prediction for tomorrow. Three Sensex stocks moved significantly:

Stock	Friday Move	Sensex Weight	Index Impact	Sensex prediction for tomorrow Reversal Potential
ICICI Bank	-2.50% to Rs 1,421	~7%	-138 pts drag	+138 pts if +2% recovery
Bajaj Finance	-5.84% to Rs 1,078	~3.5%	-85 pts drag	+42 pts if +3% partial recovery
TCS	+3.36% to Rs 2,452.70	~4%	+88 pts positive	+44 pts if sustains half
Reliance Industries	+0.74% to Rs 1,334.80	~8%	+39 pts positive	+20 pts if sustains

Ankit Jaiswal notes that the Sensex prediction for tomorrow's most efficient trade for Monday is the ICICI Bank reversal: a 2 percent recovery in ICICI Bank adds more Sensex points than almost any other single Nifty 50 stock could provide. This compositional fact is why the Sensex prediction for tomorrow could dramatically outperform Nifty on Monday if private banks recover.

Two Recovery Catalysts for the Sensex Prediction for Tomorrow

Catalyst 1 ; IT continuation: TCS at Rs 2,452.70 (+3.36 percent Friday) is the Sensex prediction for tomorrow's confirmed momentum carry. TCS sustaining above Rs 2,440 on Monday morning contributes 80-90 Sensex points and is the lowest-risk positive in this outlook. Infosys at Rs 1,175.10 (+0.87 percent) adds another 20-25 Sensex points at its weight if held. Together, IT sector continuation provides 100-120 Sensex points of structural positive for the Sensex prediction for tomorrow.

Catalyst 2 ; PSU-private rotation reversal Day 3: The PSU-private rotation that moved institutional capital from ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank into SBI has been running three sessions. SBI's Q1 FY27 result (now confirmed and processed by all institutions over the weekend) removes the final uncertainty that justified holding SBI over ICICI Bank. Kunal Singla identifies Monday's opening 30 minutes as the window when this rotation begins reversing in this outlook.

Sensex Technical Levels for the Prediction for Tomorrow

Level	Zone	Significance for Sensex prediction for tomorrow
Bear case floor	77,900-78,100	Bajaj Finance continuation below Rs 1,040 plus weak Dow
Key support	78,200-78,350	Primary Sensex prediction for tomorrow floor; ICICI and HDFC holding here is bullish
Friday close	78,499.17	Sensex prediction for tomorrow reference level; reclaiming by 10 AM = positive
Recovery target	78,700-78,800	Base case for Sensex prediction for tomorrow on ICICI partial recovery and TCS holding
Bull case	79,000-79,200	Full ICICI recovery (+2%), TCS sustaining, Bajaj Fin stabilising
Major resistance	80,000	Psychological ceiling; needs multiple positive catalysts together

Reliance Industries: The Sensex prediction for tomorrow Anchor for Tomorrow

Reliance Industries at Rs 1,334.80 (+0.74 percent Friday) confirmed its role as the Sensex's most independent large-cap, gaining while the index fell. Three simultaneous positive catalysts ; Jio ARPU re-rating from Bharti Airtel's Rs 261 ARPU result, O2C feedstock cost improvement from crude at Rs 7,356 and Reliance Retail structural expansion ; are all intact. Ankit Jaiswal identifies Reliance above Rs 1,330 at Monday open as the Sensex prediction for tomorrow's anchor: at 8 percent Sensex weight, Reliance sustaining contributes 70-80 Sensex points of structural positive in this outlook regardless of banking sector noise.

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Conclusion

The Sensex prediction for tomorrow for Monday 10 August 2026 is built on the arithmetic of Friday's composition-driven 455-point decline. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest explains the mirror image opportunity: the same ICICI Bank weight (~7 percent) that removed 138 Sensex points on Friday's 2.5 percent decline will add 138 Sensex points on a 2 percent recovery tomorrow. The Sensex prediction for tomorrow support is 78,200-78,350 and the primary target is 78,700-78,800.

Kunal Singla of Univest notes that this Sunday-published Sensex prediction for tomorrow benefits from knowing US NFP and the Dow Friday close. Check GIFT Nifty at 9 AM Monday, Bajaj Finance opening level relative to Rs 1,078 and ICICI Bank relative to Rs 1,421. The first 30 minutes of Monday's session defines the Sensex prediction for tomorrow direction for the full day.

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FAQs on Sensex Prediction for Tomorrow, 10 August 2026

What is the Sensex prediction for tomorrow, Monday 10 August 2026?

Ans. The Sensex prediction for tomorrow is neutral to cautiously positive. Sensex closed at 78,499.17 on Friday August 7, falling 455 points, more than Nifty's 65-point decline because ICICI Bank (-2.5 percent) carries higher Sensex weight. The Sensex prediction for tomorrow places support at 78,200-78,350 and resistance at 78,700-78,800 as the first recovery target.

Why did Sensex underperform Nifty on Friday in the Sensex prediction for tomorrow context?

Ans. Sensex fell 0.58 percent versus Nifty's 0.27 percent on Friday because ICICI Bank at approximately 7 percent Sensex weight fell 2.5 percent, removing 135-140 Sensex points. Simultaneously, Bajaj Finance at lower but still meaningful Sensex weight crashed 5.84 percent. For the Sensex prediction for tomorrow, these same stocks bouncing would create a disproportionate Sensex recovery versus Nifty, mirroring Friday's inverse logic.

Will Sensex reach 79,000 tomorrow in the Sensex prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. The Sensex prediction for tomorrow assigns 20 percent probability to touching 79,000 on Monday. This requires ICICI Bank recovering 2 percent to Rs 1,450 (adding 135-140 Sensex points), TCS sustaining its +3.36 percent gains (contributing 80-90 Sensex points) and a positive NFP having lifted the Dow Friday. The base Sensex prediction for tomorrow target is 78,700-78,800, not 79,000.

How does Reliance Industries affect the Sensex prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. Reliance Industries at Rs 1,334.80 (+0.74 percent Friday) is the Sensex's largest constituent at approximately 8 percent weight. Reliance gained while the broader index fell, confirming institutional conviction. The Sensex prediction for tomorrow benefits if Reliance sustains above Rs 1,330 at Monday open, contributing 70-80 Sensex points of structural positive support.

Which analysts prepared the Sensex prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, prepared the Sensex prediction for tomorrow using Groww-confirmed Friday data: Sensex 78,499.17 (-455.59 pts), ICICI Bank Rs 1,421 (-2.5%), Reliance Industries Rs 1,334.80 (+0.74%), TCS Rs 2,452.70 (+3.36%) and Bajaj Finance Rs 1,078 (-5.84%).

What is Sensex support and resistance for the prediction for tomorrow?

Ans. Sensex support is 78,200-78,350 (immediate) and 77,900-78,100 (key floor). Resistance is 78,700-78,800 (first recovery target) and 79,000-79,200 (bull case). The 80,000 level remains the major psychological resistance in this outlook.