Sensex Prediction for Monday: Monthly Options Expiry Day Levels for 29 June 2026

The sensex prediction for Monday, 29 June 2026, is uniquely critical because it is the BSE Sensex monthly options expiry day. Unlike the Thursday weekly Sensex expiry (which settled at 77,100.47 on 25 June 2026), the monthly expiry carries substantially larger open interest and wider pin-risk near 77,000 to 77,200. The Nifty 50 closed at 24,056.00 (+0.14%) and India VIX fell to 13.05 (-2.54%). The sensex prediction for Monday is shaped by the Sensex closing at 77,100.47 on Thursday, just 100 points above the monthly max pain zone, creating conditions for a range-bound Monday session gravitating toward 77,000 to 77,200 at the 3:30 PM monthly settlement.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Associate Director Kunal Singla have analysed the Sensex monthly options data, constituent positioning, and the weekend macro outlook to present the sensex prediction for Monday. The sensex prediction for Monday on a monthly expiry carries higher significance than the weekly sensex prediction for Monday and requires specific trading discipline around the expiry settlement window.

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Sensex Prediction for Monday: Monthly Expiry Context

• Monthly vs Weekly Expiry: The sensex prediction for Monday involves the Sensex monthly options expiry, which carries significantly larger OI than the Thursday weekly expiry that settled at 77,100.47. The sensex prediction for Monday therefore carries wider pin-risk bands and more sustained intraday volatility than this week’s Thursday expiry session.
• Max Pain Near 77,000 to 77,200: The sensex prediction for Monday is anchored by monthly max pain estimated at 77,000 to 77,200. With Thursday’s close at 77,100.47 (just 100 points above this zone), the Sensex is well-positioned to gravitate toward monthly max pain on Monday. Option writers in the sensex prediction for Monday benefit when the Sensex settles near 77,100 at 3:30 PM.
• June Monthly Settlement: The sensex prediction for Monday represents the June monthly F&O settlement. This creates additional institutional flows as large market participants roll or close June positions and begin July series. These June-end flows add to the sensex prediction for Monday’s inherent monthly expiry volatility.

Sensex Prediction for Monday: Key Monthly Expiry Levels

Trend: Monthly Expiry Range-Bound | Max Pain 77,000 to 77,200 | Expected Band 76,800 to 77,400

Level	Sensex
Support 1	76,800
Support 2	76,500
Resistance 1	77,300
Resistance 2	77,600

The sensex prediction for Monday from Ankit Jaiswal places 76,800 as the monthly expiry floor. With Thursday’s close at 77,100.47 and VIX at 13.05, Jaiswal expects the Sensex to oscillate in a 76,800 to 77,400 band on Monday before gravitating toward 77,000 to 77,200 max pain by 3:30 PM. The sensex prediction for Monday turns decisively bullish above 77,400 (a break above the Thursday intraday high of 77,803.18 on a close above 77,600 would signal genuine breakout) and cautious below 76,800. Monthly expiry dynamics will dominate the sensex prediction for Monday direction more than any technical signal between 2:00 and 3:30 PM.

Sensex Monthly F&O Analysis for 29 June 2026

• June Monthly OI Structure: The sensex prediction for Monday for the monthly expiry is defined by June monthly Put OI (concentrated near 76,500 to 77,000) and Call OI (concentrated near 77,200 to 77,500). This OI sandwich defines the expected Monday range for the sensex prediction for Monday.
• Monthly Expiry vs Weekly Expiry: The sensex prediction for Monday’s monthly expiry creates wider intraday moves than Thursday’s weekly expiry (which itself saw a range of 76,993.16 to 77,803.18, a 810-point span). Expect a similar or wider range in the sensex prediction for Monday on the monthly settlement day.
• HDFC Bank as Sensex Anchor: HDFC Bank carries the largest Sensex weight and closed at Rs 796.30 on 25 June 2026. Its intraday movement will be the primary driver of the sensex prediction for Monday direction throughout the expiry session.
• June-End Institutional Flows: June month-end triggers institutional portfolio rebalancing that adds to the sensex prediction for Monday volatility. FII and DII June closing flows will be released post-6 PM Monday, but intraday impact begins from the opening bell.

Global Cues for Sensex Prediction for Monday

• GIFT Nifty Monday Morning: GIFT Nifty estimated near 24,080 based on Thursday’s close. Check Monday morning between 7:00 and 9:15 AM. If GIFT Nifty holds above 24,000, the sensex prediction for Monday opens near or above 77,000 max pain, setting up a smooth expiry resolution. Below 23,850 signals a Monday opening below max pain that complicates the sensex prediction for Monday.
• Iran-US Weekend Outcome: A confirmed deal would gap Sensex above 77,400 on Monday, creating a gap-up expiry start above monthly max pain. A collapse would gap Sensex below 76,800, threatening the sensex prediction for Monday’s monthly expiry floor.
• US Friday Close: US market performance on Friday 27 June determines GIFT Nifty’s weekend drift. A strong US close supports the sensex prediction for Monday opening near max pain on Monday morning.

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Sensex Prediction for Monday: Monthly Expiry Strategy

1. Trade the Max Pain Range: The sensex prediction for Monday favours range trades between 76,800 support and 77,300 resistance. For option writers, selling June monthly straddles at 77,000 to 77,100 strikes is aligned with the sensex prediction for Monday max pain thesis.
2. Long on Dip Setup: If Sensex opens below 77,000 on Monday, the sensex prediction for Monday favours a long entry near 76,800 to 76,900 targeting 77,200 by 2:00 PM. Stop at 76,600.
3. Exit by 2:00 PM: All directional positions in the sensex prediction for Monday should be reduced by 2:00 PM. Monthly expiry settlement between 2:00 and 3:30 PM is the highest-risk window for the sensex prediction for Monday and can produce 400 to 600 point intraday swings.
4. HDFC Bank as Lead Indicator: Monitor HDFC Bank intraday for the sensex prediction for Monday direction. If HDFC Bank is above Rs 793 at 10:00 AM, the sensex prediction for Monday is tracking its positive scenario. If below Rs 785, the sensex prediction for Monday may test the 76,800 floor.

What Expiry Mechanics Mean for Sensex Prediction for Monday

Ankit Jaiswal notes that the sensex prediction for Monday’s monthly expiry at 77,000 to 77,200 is supported by Thursday’s weekly expiry settling at 77,100.47. This alignment between weekly settlement (77,100) and monthly max pain (77,000 to 77,200) is technically positive for the sensex prediction for Monday. It suggests option sellers in the June monthly series are well-positioned and will work to keep the Sensex near 77,000 to 77,200 through Monday’s settlement.

Kunal Singla adds that VIX at 13.05 (multi-week low) entering the monthly expiry weekend is a rare setup. The sensex prediction for Monday in a sub-13.5 VIX environment for a monthly expiry historically produces a smooth, range-bound expiry settlement near max pain rather than a sharp directional break. This supports the sensex prediction for Monday’s 76,800 to 77,400 expected range thesis.

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Risks to Sensex Prediction for Monday

• Iran Weekend Collapse: A breakdown in Switzerland would gap Sensex below 76,800 on Monday, forcing the sensex prediction for Monday below the monthly expiry floor and triggering stop-loss selling by option sellers defending the 77,000 strike.
• FII June-End Redemptions: Large-scale FII selling on the last Monday of June could overwhelm DII buying and push the Sensex Monday expiry outlook below 76,500, creating an extreme monthly expiry outcome that invalidates the Sensex Monday expiry outlook range trade thesis.
• Monthly Expiry Gap Risk: If Sensex opens far above (above 77,500) or below (below 76,600) the monthly max pain zone on Monday, the Sensex Monday expiry outlook sees sharp reversal risk as option sellers aggressively push the index back toward 77,000 to 77,200 by 3:30 PM settlement.

Stocks to Watch on Monday, 29 June 2026

Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla of Univest flag three stocks for Monday 29 June 2026. Note that 29 June 2026 is the Sensex monthly expiry, adding specific volatility to Sensex heavyweight names like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance, and Infosys in the 2:00 to 3:30 PM window.

Stock	CMP (25 June 2026)	Entry Zone	Target	Stop Loss
ICICI Bank	Rs 1,387.50	Rs 1,382 to Rs 1,392	Rs 1,412 to Rs 1,420	Rs 1,368
HDFC Bank	Rs 796.30	Rs 793 to Rs 799	Rs 812 to Rs 818	Rs 783
Reliance Industries	Rs 1,318.10	Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,320	Rs 1,338 to Rs 1,345	Rs 1,300

ICICI Bank at Rs 1,387.50 (+1.01% on 25 June 2026) is the standout banking momentum stock heading into Monday. Jaiswal flags the Rs 1,382 to Rs 1,392 entry zone targeting Rs 1,412 with stop at Rs 1,368. As a top Sensex constituent, ICICI Bank will see specific Monday Sensex monthly expiry positioning during the 2:00 to 3:30 PM window. HDFC Bank at Rs 796.30 is the largest Sensex component and Singla flags it as the primary Sensex monthly expiry anchor stock for Monday. Entry Rs 793 to Rs 799, target Rs 812, stop Rs 783. Reliance Industries at Rs 1,318.10 benefits from continued crude oil weakness reducing downstream input costs. Jaiswal sees Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,320 as the entry zone targeting Rs 1,338, with stop at Rs 1,300.

Conclusion

The Sensex Monday expiry outlook on 29 June 2026 is for a monthly options expiry session with max pain near 77,000 to 77,200. Ankit Jaiswal places the expected band at 76,800 to 77,400 with the Sensex gravitating toward 77,000 to 77,200 by the 3:30 PM monthly settlement. VIX at 13.05 and Thursday’s weekly expiry settling at 77,100.47 (aligned with monthly max pain) create a technically ideal setup for the Sensex Monday expiry outlook. All directional positions must be reduced before 2:00 PM on Monday.

This Sensex Monday expiry outlook is based on data as of close of trade on 25 June 2026. Check GIFT Nifty before 9:15 AM on 29 June 2026, monitor Iran-US weekend news, and track HDFC Bank intraday as the primary Sensex constituent signal for the Sensex Monday expiry outlook direction throughout the expiry session.

FAQs

What is the Sensex Monday expiry outlook, 29 June 2026?

Ans. The Sensex Monday expiry outlook is for a Sensex monthly options expiry session. Sensex closed at 77,100.47 on 25 June 2026. Monthly max pain is estimated near 77,000 to 77,200. The Sensex Monday expiry outlook expects a 76,800 to 77,400 range with gravitational pull toward 77,000 to 77,200 by 3:30 PM settlement.

What is the Sensex monthly max pain for 29 June 2026?

Ans. The Sensex Monday expiry outlook estimates monthly max pain at 77,000 to 77,200 for the June monthly expiry on 29 June 2026. The Sensex closing at 77,100.47 on Thursday (aligned with max pain) suggests option sellers are well-positioned to defend the 77,000 to 77,200 zone throughout Monday’s session.

What is Sensex support and resistance for Monday 29 June 2026?

Ans. The Sensex Monday expiry outlook places monthly expiry support at 76,800 (backed by Put OI) and 76,500. Resistance is at 77,300 and 77,600. The primary Sensex Monday expiry outlook range is 76,800 to 77,400 with 77,000 to 77,200 as the monthly max pain anchor.

What is the Sensex monthly expiry strategy for 29 June 2026?

Ans. The Sensex Monday expiry outlook favours range trades. Buy near 76,800 to 76,900 targeting 77,200 by 2:00 PM. For option writers, sell June monthly straddles at 77,000 to 77,100 strikes. Exit all positions by 2:00 PM before the 2:00 to 3:30 PM monthly expiry settlement window.

What stocks to watch for Sensex Monday expiry outlook?

Ans. For the Sensex Monday expiry outlook monthly expiry, HDFC Bank (largest Sensex component, entry Rs 793 to Rs 799, target Rs 812) and ICICI Bank (entry Rs 1,382 to Rs 1,392, target Rs 1,412) are the primary Sensex expiry anchor stocks. Reliance Industries (entry Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,320, target Rs 1,338) is the third key Sensex heavyweight for Monday.