Sensex Prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026: Index at 78,499 After Steeper Fall Than Nifty as ICICI Bank's 2.5 Percent Drop Weighs Heavy on Composition

The Sensex prediction for Monday for 10 August 2026 carries a steeper recovery requirement than the Nifty 50 prediction for Monday. Sensex closed at 78,499.17, falling 455 points (0.58 percent), significantly underperforming Nifty 50's 0.27 percent decline. The reason is compositional: ICICI Bank at approximately 7 percent Sensex weight dropped 2.5 percent, removing approximately 138 Sensex points directly. HDFC Bank's 0.45 percent decline added another 35-40 point drag. The structural irony of Friday's session is that the same Closing Auction Session mechanism that drove Sensex to outperform Nifty all week worked in reverse on Friday: ICICI Bank's heavier Sensex weight amplified the private bank selling drag in this outlook. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, present the complete Sensex prediction for Monday.

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Friday's Confirmed Close Behind the Sensex Prediction for Monday

Indicator	Friday 7 Aug Actual Close	Change from Thu
Nifty 50	24,570.65	-65.35 pts (-0.27%) | High: 24,629.8 | Low: 24,522.9
Sensex	78,499.17	-455.59 pts (-0.58%) | High: 78,757.4 | Low: 78,377.6
Bank Nifty	57,746.45	-317.20 pts (-0.55%) | High: 57,993.75 | Low: 57,688.3
SBI Q1 FY27	Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12%) | Intraday high Rs 1,124.5	PAT Rs 21,121 cr (+10.23%); NIM 3.0%; GNPA 1.47% (2-decade low)
ICICI Bank	Rs 1,421.00	-2.50% (Rs -36.50) | Private bank selling continued despite SBI beat
HDFC Bank	Rs 731.00	-0.45% (Rs -3.30) | Broad financial sector selling
TCS	Rs 2,452.70	+3.36% (Rs +79.70) | Top Nifty 50 gainer; IT recovery standout
Infosys	Rs 1,175.10	+0.87% (Rs +10.10) | IT sector broadly positive
Reliance Industries	Rs 1,334.80	+0.74% (Rs +9.80) | Second-best large-cap gainer
Bharti Airtel	Rs 1,959.90	+0.61% (Rs +11.90) | Re-rating continues post Q1 FY27
Hindustan Zinc	Rs 603.00	+2.20% (Rs +13.00) | Zinc at COMEX 4-year highs
US NFP (July 2026)	Released 6 PM IST today	Primary catalyst shaping Monday gap direction

ICICI Bank: The Sensex Prediction for Monday's Central Question

The Sensex prediction for Monday hinges more on ICICI Bank than on any other single stock. At 7 percent Sensex weight, ICICI Bank recovering 2 percent on Monday adds 140 Sensex points directly; ICICI Bank falling another 2 percent removes 140 Sensex points. This ICICI sensitivity is why the Sensex prediction for Monday could diverge significantly from the Nifty 50 prediction for Monday.

Ankit Jaiswal frames the ICICI Bank thesis for the Sensex prediction for Monday: the stock's Q1 FY27 fundamentals are unchanged: GNPA at a decade-low 2.1 percent, NIM 4.34 percent, loan growth 15.2 percent year-on-year. The three-session selling is entirely the PSU-private rotation trade that has not yet reversed despite SBI's confirmed Q1 FY27 beat. Kunal Singla expects ICICI Bank at Rs 1,415-1,420 to attract value buying from domestic institutional investors (DIIs) who look at the 52-week range in this outlook context.

TCS and Reliance as Sensex Prediction for Monday Positives

TCS surging 3.36 percent to Rs 2,452.70 added approximately 80-85 Sensex points on Friday, limiting the damage from banking sector selling. Reliance Industries at Rs 1,334.80 (+0.74 percent) added 70-80 Sensex points as Reliance Jio ARPU re-rating from Bharti Airtel's Rs 261 ARPU continues providing a valuation tailwind. Together, TCS and Reliance contributed approximately 150-165 Sensex points of positive momentum on Friday in this outlook, partially offsetting the 200-plus points from ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank selling.

Sensex Technical Levels for the Prediction for Monday

Level	Zone	Significance for Sensex prediction for Monday
Bear case floor	77,900-78,100	Weak NFP plus ICICI continuation scenario
Key support	78,200-78,350	Sensex prediction for Monday immediate support; hold here = base case
Friday's low	78,377.60	Break below Monday = accelerated selling in Sensex prediction for Monday
Friday's close	78,499.17	Sensex prediction for Monday reference; reclaiming 78,500 is Monday's first step
First resistance	78,700-78,800	Base case recovery target for Sensex prediction for Monday
Key resistance	79,000-79,200	Bull case; needs strong NFP plus ICICI recovery
Extended	79,500-79,700	Strong beat scenario; low probability in Sensex prediction for Monday

Track Live Sensex Levels and Screen Stocks for the Sensex prediction for Monday

Conclusion

The Sensex prediction for Monday for 10 August 2026 requires a more significant recovery than the Nifty 50 prediction for Monday because ICICI Bank's compositional weight amplified Friday's 455-point Sensex decline. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest places the Sensex prediction for Monday support at 78,200-78,350 and the first recovery target at 78,700-78,800. The Sensex prediction for Monday path to 79,000 requires ICICI Bank finding support at Rs 1,415-1,420 and TCS sustaining Friday's 3.36 percent gain into Monday.

Kunal Singla of Univest notes that the same CAS mechanism that caused Sensex to consistently outperform Nifty all week caused it to underperform on Friday. On Monday, when IT sector (TCS, Infosys) and Reliance hold their Friday gains, the CAS mechanism should again work in this outlook's favour once ICICI Bank stabilises. NFP is the key overnight variable for the Sensex prediction for Monday.

Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track live Sensex levels and ICICI Bank on Monday morning.

FAQs on Sensex Prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026

What is the Sensex prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026?

Ans. The Sensex prediction for Monday is cautiously neutral. Sensex closed Friday at 78,499.17, falling 455 points and losing 0.58 percent as private bank selling (ICICI Bank -2.5 percent) and broad financial sector drag offset SBI Q1 FY27 gains and TCS's 3.36 percent surge. Support for the Sensex prediction for Monday is 78,200-78,350 and resistance is 78,700-78,800. A healthy US NFP is needed for Sensex to recover in this outlook.

Why did Sensex fall more than Nifty on Friday in the Sensex prediction for Monday context?

Ans. Sensex fell 0.58 percent versus Nifty's 0.27 percent on Friday because Sensex's 30-stock composition gives higher effective weight to ICICI Bank (approximately 7 percent Sensex weight). ICICI Bank's 2.5 percent decline removed approximately 165 Sensex points, while the same stock has a lower weight in Nifty. The Sensex prediction for Monday's recovery requires ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank to bounce together, which would add 200-250 Sensex points from banking alone.

Will Sensex cross 79,000 on Monday?

Ans. Crossing 79,000 requires a 501-point recovery from Friday's close of 78,499. The Sensex prediction for Monday assigns 15 percent probability to this scenario, requiring a strong NFP above 220,000 plus ICICI Bank recovery above Rs 1,450 and SBI sustaining above Rs 1,110. The base Sensex prediction for Monday targets 78,700-78,800 as the first resistance.

Which analysts prepared the Sensex prediction for Monday?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, prepared the Sensex prediction for Monday using Groww-confirmed Friday actual close: Sensex 78,499.17 (-455.59 pts), ICICI Bank Rs 1,421 (-2.5%), TCS Rs 2,452.70 (+3.36%) and Reliance Industries Rs 1,334.80 (+0.74%).

What is Sensex support and resistance for the prediction for Monday?

Ans. Sensex support for Monday is 78,200-78,350 (immediate) and 77,900-78,100 (key). Resistance is 78,700-78,800 (first recovery) and 79,000-79,200 (bull case) in this outlook.

How does Reliance Industries affect the Sensex prediction for Monday?

Ans. Reliance Industries gained 0.74 percent to Rs 1,334.80 on Friday and is the Sensex's largest constituent at approximately 8 percent weight. Reliance above Rs 1,340 on Monday morning would contribute 80-100 Sensex points of positive momentum. Jio ARPU validation from Airtel's Rs 261 ARPU continues to provide structural upside for the Sensex prediction for Monday through Reliance Jio re-rating.