Nifty Financial Services 25/50 Prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026: Index Falls as Bajaj Finance 5.84 Percent Crash Dominates While HDFC Bank Cap Limits Banking Drag

The Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday on Monday 10 August 2026 is shaped by Friday's session where Nifty 50 closed at 24,570.65 (down 65 points, -0.27%), Sensex fell 455 points to 78,499.17 and Bank Nifty lost 317 points to 57,746.45. The session's defining paradox: SBI Q1 FY27 beat strongly (PAT +10.23%, NIM recovered to exactly 3 percent, GNPA at a two-decade low of 1.47 percent) but Bajaj Finance crashed 5.84 percent and ICICI Bank fell 2.5 percent, dragging the financial sector. The top performers were Nifty Auto (+1.83 percent), Nifty IT (+1.42 percent led by TCS +3.36 percent) and MCX Gold (+1.40 percent) and MCX Silver (+3.19 percent). The Nifty Financial Services 25/50 is the sectoral index for this prediction for Monday. The primary catalyst for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday is the US Non-Farm Payrolls for July 2026, released at 6 PM IST today after Indian market close, which will determine Monday's opening gap direction. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, present the complete Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday.

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Friday's Data Behind the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday

Indicator	Friday 7 Aug Close (Groww Confirmed)	Change
Nifty 50	24,570.65	-65.35 pts (-0.27%)
Sensex	78,499.17	-455.59 pts (-0.58%)
Bank Nifty	57,746.45	-317.20 pts (-0.55%)
Nifty Auto	29,646.95	+1.83%; top sectoral gainer
Nifty IT	31,547.70	+1.42%; TCS +3.36%, HCL +1.62%, Infosys +0.87%
Nifty PSU Bank	8,786.20	+0.65%; SBI +1.12% on Q1 FY27 beat
Nifty Metal	13,189.85	+0.50%; Hindustan Zinc +2.20%
Nifty Private Bank	27,392.35	-1.04%; ICICI -2.50%, Axis -1.43%
SBI Q1 FY27	Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12%)	PAT Rs 21,121 cr (+10.23%); NIM 3.0%; GNPA 1.47% (2-decade low). High: Rs 1,124.5
Bajaj Finance	Rs 1,078 (-5.84%)	Biggest Nifty 50 loser; dragged Fin Services sector
MCX Gold (Aug Fut)	Rs 1,49,703/10g (+1.40%)	Strong surge; safe-haven demand
MCX Silver (Mini Aug)	Rs 2,34,741/kg (+3.19%)	Outperformed gold; industrial + safe-haven combined
MCX Crude Oil (Aug)	Rs 7,356/bbl (-0.28%)	Slight dip; Iran deal uncertainty continues
India VIX	12.16	Unchanged from previous close
US NFP (July 2026)	Released 6 PM IST today	Primary weekend catalyst for Monday gap direction

SBI Q1 FY27 and Bajaj Finance: Two Opposite Forces Behind the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday

Friday's session presented two contradictory catalysts for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday. SBI delivered its strongest quarterly result in recent memory: PAT up 10.23 percent to Rs 21,121 crore, NIM recovered to exactly 3 percent from Q4 FY26's 2.93 percent and GNPA fell to 1.47 percent, a two-decade low. SBI surged to Rs 1,124.5 intraday before closing at Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12 percent). Simultaneously, Bajaj Finance crashed 5.84 percent to Rs 1,078, the biggest Nifty 50 loser, dragging the financial services sector. Ankit Jaiswal notes that the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday is shaped by which of these two forces dominates on Monday: SBI's confirmed earnings strength or Bajaj Finance's Q1 result-related concerns spilling into the broader NBFC sector.

Technical Levels for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday

Level Type	Zone
Immediate Support	21,100-21,200
Key Support	20,800-20,900
Immediate Resistance	21,600-21,700
Key Resistance	21,850-22,000

Kunal Singla observes that India VIX closed Friday at 12.16, unchanged from Thursday's close. Stable VIX at 12-13 despite the broader market fall is structurally positive for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday: it means option sellers are not panicking and the August monthly series maintains a defined range. The Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday's support at 21,100-21,200 is the immediate floor heading into Monday.

US NFP: The Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday Primary Weekend Variable

US Non-Farm Payrolls for July 2026 releases at 6 PM IST today. A healthy NFP (175,000-230,000 range) supports a Monday gap-up in this outlook as Dow Jones rises and FII risk-on flows return to India on Monday morning. A weak NFP below 130,000 raises US recession concerns and creates a Monday gap-down in this outlook. Ankit Jaiswal recommends checking GIFT Nifty at 9 AM Monday before making any Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday position decisions.

Key Factors for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday

• The 25 percent cap on HDFC Bank in the 25/50 variant reduces the direct private banking drag from HDFC Bank's -0.45 percent in this outlook versus the standard index. However, the higher effective weight of Bajaj Finance and ICICI Bank amplifies their declines (-5.84 percent and -2.5 percent respectively).
• Bajaj Finance at Rs 1,078 (-5.84 percent Friday) is the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday's primary concern. Bajaj Finance has higher relative weight in the 25/50 variant, making the 5.84 percent crash more impactful for this index.
• SBI at Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12 percent Friday) provides a partial recovery anchor in this outlook through PSU banking confidence from the Q1 FY27 beat.
• US NFP at 6 PM IST today: strong NFP improving FII risk appetite would support recovery in Bajaj Finance and ICICI Bank on Monday, helping the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday.

Stocks to Watch for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday

Univest analysts flag the following stocks for educational observation in this outlook on Monday. These are not buy or sell recommendations.

HDFC Bank: CMP Rs 731 (-0.45% Fri). Ankit Jaiswal flags entry Rs 725-730, target Rs 748, SL Rs 714. HDFC Bank at 25 percent cap remains significant in the 25/50 variant. Rs 725-730 is the accumulation zone for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday.

Bajaj Finance: CMP Rs 1,078 (-5.84% Fri). Kunal Singla flags entry Rs 1,065-1,078 (after weekend clarity), target Rs 1,130, SL Rs 1,038. Higher effective Bajaj Finance weight in 25/50 makes it the primary Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday signal. Requires understanding of Friday's crash reason before entry.

ICICI Bank: CMP Rs 1,421 (-2.50% Fri). Ankit Jaiswal flags entry Rs 1,415-1,420, target Rs 1,452, SL Rs 1,398. ICICI Bank stabilisation at Rs 1,415-1,420 is the private banking recovery confirmation for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday.

Screen All Stocks for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday on Univest

Trading Strategy for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday

1. 21,100-21,200 is the support for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday.
2. 21,600-21,700 is the first resistance in this outlook.
3. Track Bajaj Finance alongside ICICI Bank on Monday: if both stabilise, the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday has recovery potential.
4. Monitor the PSU-private bank spread: SBI holding above Rs 1,082 while ICICI Bank finds support at Rs 1,415 is the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday rotation reversal signal.

Risks to the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday

• Bajaj Finance concerns spreading to Mahindra Finance and Muthoot Finance in this outlook.
• ICICI Bank extending its decline below Rs 1,400 in this outlook.
• Weak NFP reducing FII appetite for NBFCs and private banks in this outlook.

Conclusion

The Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday on Monday 10 August 2026 is built on Friday's close of Approx. 21,200-21,500 (Down significantly (Bajaj Fin -5.84%, ICICI -2.5% vs HDFC 25% cap)), from a session where Nifty Auto (+1.83 percent), Nifty IT (+1.42 percent) and MCX precious metals (Gold +1.40 percent, Silver +3.19 percent) were the week's bright spots while Bajaj Finance (-5.84 percent) and ICICI Bank (-2.5 percent) created financial sector drag. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest identifies 21,600-21,700 as the primary resistance and 21,100-21,200 as the critical support for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday. The US NFP at 6 PM IST today is the primary variable: monitor GIFT Nifty Sunday evening and at 9 AM Monday before positioning for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday.

Kunal Singla of Univest notes that the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday has a dual structure for Monday: the recovery case (IT and Auto momentum continues, SBI Q1 beat sustains, NFP healthy) and the continuation decline case (Bajaj Finance concerns spread to NBFCs, private banks extend selling, weak NFP). The Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday's support zone at 21,100-21,200 is the line between these two scenarios on Monday.

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FAQs on Nifty Financial Services 25/50 Prediction For Monday, 10 August 2026

What is the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026?

Ans. The Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday is bearish with stabilisation potential. Bajaj Finance crashed 5.84 percent and ICICI Bank fell 2.5 percent on Friday. Support is 21,100-21,200 and resistance is 21,600-21,700 in this outlook.

Why is the 25/50 different from the standard index in the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday?

Ans. The 25 percent cap on HDFC Bank reduces private banking concentration. However, higher effective Bajaj Finance and ICICI Bank weights mean the 25/50 is hit harder by their Friday declines (-5.84% and -2.5%) in this outlook.

Which analysts prepared the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, prepared the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday.

What is support and resistance for the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday?

Ans. Support is 21,100-21,200 and 20,800-20,900. Resistance is 21,600-21,700 and 21,850-22,000 in the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday.

What stocks are watched in the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday?

Ans. HDFC Bank (25% cap, accumulation zone Rs 725-730), Bajaj Finance (key uncertainty, weekend clarity needed) and ICICI Bank (stabilisation signal) are watched in the Nifty Financial Services 25/50 prediction for Monday.