Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow: MCX Levels and Outlook for 21 August 2026

The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow carries a positive bias after MCX Crude Oil gained +1.83% to Rs 8,302/bbl on 20 August. The near-month August contract (expiring today, 20 August) opened at Rs 8,116, hit a high of Rs 8,323, and settled at Rs 8,302. Ankit Jaiswal, Research Analyst at Univest, emphasises that today is the last trading day for the August contract, making rollover to the September contract (Rs 8,097) the primary operational priority in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

Kunal Singla, Research Analyst at Univest, observes that the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is driven by the Iran-Strait of Hormuz supply standoff, which continues to underpin oil prices. The September contract at Rs 8,097 trades at a slight discount to August (Rs 8,302), a normal calendar spread. Despite the broader equity market weakness (Nifty +0.64%), Reliance Industries (+0.17%) and energy stocks held up, validating the bullish crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

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Today's Market Recap: Crude Oil on 20 August 2026

• MCX Crude (Aug, expiring today): Settled at Rs 8,302/bbl (+1.83%). Last trading day 20 August mandatory rollover to September in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
• MCX Crude (Sep): Closed at Rs 8,097 (+1.01%), the active reference contract for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
• Equity Signal: Reliance Industries (+0.17%) and ONGC (+0.88%) both positive on 20 August, confirming the bullish crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow: Technical Analysis

Ankit Jaiswal's crude oil price prediction for tomorrow focuses on the MCX September contract (Rs 8,097). Immediate support in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is at Rs 8,050, with strong support at Rs 8,150. A hold above Rs 8,050 keeps the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow bullish.

Resistance is at Rs 8,323 in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow. Kunal Singla notes that a close above Rs 8,200 (Sep) would be a bullish confirmation targeting Rs 8,400 to 8,500 to Rs 8,300. Iran resolution remains the primary risk variable for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

Trend for 21 August 2026: Bullish (Watch August Expiry Rollover)
Support: 8,050 (Sep) | 7,950
Resistance: 8,150 to 8,200 | 8,250

Global Cues for Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow

• US Markets (latest available close): Dow Jones at 53,732 (-0.20%), S&P 500 at 7,785 (-0.20%), Nasdaq at 26,729 (-0.30%). Weak retail sales data (-0.6% in July) and subdued University of Michigan consumer sentiment (51, below forecast 55) signal caution.
• Asian Markets: Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 2.1% to 66,970 on Monday, providing a partially positive cue for Asian risk assets.
• Institutional Flows (latest available, 14 Aug): FII were net buyers of Rs 508 Cr and DII were net buyers of Rs 356 Cr in the cash segment, reflecting continued institutional support for Indian equities.

Key Events for 21 August 2026

• MCX August crude contract expires today (20 August): Mandatory rollover to September all August positions must be closed or rolled
• Iran-Strait of Hormuz negotiations or escalation remain the primary driver of the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
• US API crude inventory data release this week will provide demand-side signals for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
• ONGC and Reliance Q1 FY27 results commentary may influence the energy equity side of the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow

Stocks Linked to Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow

Name	CMP (Rs)	Day Change	Key Level for Tomorrow
ONGC	238.49	+0.88%	Support: 236 | Resistance: 241
Reliance Industries	1,313.20	+0.17%	Support: 1,311 | Resistance: 1,330
BPCL	311	+0.50%	Support: 306 | Resistance: 319
Indian Oil Corporation	156	+0.30%	Support: 153 | Resistance: 160

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Trading Strategy for Crude Oil on 20 Aug 2026

• Roll to MCX September crude immediately; buy Sep contract dips toward Rs 8,050 for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
• A break above Rs 8,200 (Sep) in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow validates the bullish bias; target Rs 8,400 to 8,500 to 8,300
• Watch Iran-Hormuz overnight: any deal would sharply reverse the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
• Keep Aug contract positions zero after market open on 20 August mandatory expiry for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow

What Does Sentiment Indicate for Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow?

Sentiment for the crude oil price outlook for 21 August is bullish, sustained by the Iran-Strait of Hormuz standoff and the second consecutive daily gain. Ankit Jaiswal notes that today (20 August) is the August contract's last trading day, adding operational urgency to tomorrow's MCX crude oil price forecast.

Kunal Singla observes that equity signals align with the bullish Friday's crude oil price outlook: Reliance and ONGC both positive while Nifty fell 0.50%. Put-Call Ratio for September crude options above 1.0 confirms options markets lean bullish in the 20 August crude oil price outlook.

Risks to the MCX crude oil price forecast for tomorrow

• August expiry today may create temporary price dislocation from rollover activity in the crude oil price's 21 August outlook
• A US-Iran Strait of Hormuz agreement overnight would trigger a sharp sell-off in the crude oil price outlook for 21 August
• Weak US demand data (soft PMI or retail sales) could cap the upside in tomorrow's MCX crude oil price forecast
• Broader commodity sell-off from China slowdown fears would weigh on Friday's crude oil price outlook

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Conclusion

The 20 August crude oil price outlook, 21 August 2026, is bullish as MCX Crude settled at Rs 8,302/bbl (+1.83%). Ankit Jaiswal's the MCX crude oil price forecast for tomorrow focuses on the September contract (Rs 8,097) after today's August expiry. Kunal Singla keeps a bullish bias while monitoring Iran developments.

Roll to MCX September crude for the crude oil price's 21 August outlook. Download the Univest app for live MCX crude oil prices and expert research.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest Research Analyst Registration No. INH000013776.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the crude oil price outlook for 21 August, 21 August 2026?

Ans. Tomorrow's MCX crude oil price forecast is bullish. MCX Crude settled at Rs 8,302/bbl (+1.83%) on 20 August. The August contract expires today (20 August); the September contract (Rs 8,097) is the active reference. Support at Rs 8,050, resistance at Rs 8,200.

What happens to MCX crude oil on 21 August 2026?

Ans. The MCX Crude Oil August futures contract has its last trading day on 21 August 2026. All positions must be rolled to the September contract. Ankit Jaiswal notes this rollover is the most critical operational event in Friday's crude oil price outlook.

What are MCX crude oil support levels for 21 August 2026?

Ans. The 20 August crude oil price outlook (Sep contract) places support at Rs 8,050 and strong support at Rs 8,150. Resistance is at Rs 8,323 and Rs 8,400 to 8,500. These are the key the MCX crude oil price forecast for tomorrow levels.

How does the Iran situation affect the crude oil price's 21 August outlook?

Ans. The Iran-Strait of Hormuz standoff is the primary bullish driver. Any escalation pushes the crude oil price outlook for 21 August toward Rs 8,300; a deal reverses it sharply. Kunal Singla monitors Hormuz developments as the top variable in tomorrow's MCX crude oil price forecast.

What is the crude oil trading strategy for 21 August 2026?

Ans. For Friday's crude oil price outlook, roll to MCX September immediately. Ankit Jaiswal recommends buying Sep contract dips toward Rs 8,050 with stop below Rs 7,980. A break above Rs 8,200 targets Rs 8,400 to 8,500 to Rs 8,300 in the 20 August crude oil price outlook.