Should You Invest in OMC Stocks Such as HPCL, BPCL and IOCL? Brent Below $90, a Q2 Profit Rebound, a Rs 67,900 Crore LPG Burden, and the Inventory Loss Risk to Weigh First
- November 11, 2026
- Posted by: Ankit Jaiswal
- Category: News
HPCL, BPCL, IOC up 10-13.5% in Nov as Brent fell below $90. Q2 FY27 standalone profit Rs 30,106 cr combined; LPG negative buffer about Rs 67,900 cr (my arithmetic).
Quick Answer
OMC stocks HPCL, BPCL and IOC gained 10% to 13.5% in November to 11 Nov 2026 as Brent fell below $90. Q2 FY27 standalone profit of the three was Rs 30,106 crore. A Rs 67,900 crore LPG negative buffer and inventory losses remain risks.
OMC stocks are back in focus as HPCL, BPCL and IOC have gained between 10% and 13.5% in November, helped by Brent crude slipping below $90 on 10 November, its lowest since late August. The question many investors ask is whether to invest now. This note sets out the Q2 FY27 results, the Brent move, the LPG and inventory risks, and a checklist, without recommending any stock.
Share levels move daily, so check NSE and BSE for the live price. Brent figures here come from reports on 10 and 11 November and differ by contract and time.
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OMC Stocks in November: What Moved and Why
| Date and item | What happened | Source note |
|---|---|---|
| OMC stocks: 5 November | HPCL, BPCL and IOC rose as much as 7% as Brent fell below $95 | Kotak Neo |
| OMC stocks: 9 November | Brent fell nearly 6% after a US pause on further action against Iran | Same source |
| OMC stocks: 10 November | Brent dipped below $90, then recovered to about $90.64; WTI at $85.41 | Lowest since late August |
| OMC stocks: brent versus 30 October high | About 23% below a high near $118 | Kotak Neo |
| OMC stocks: november to 11 November | HPCL, BPCL and IOC up 10% to 13.5% | Kotak Neo |
The three state-run companies buy crude, refine it and sell fuel at prices that are partly set by the government, so lower crude prices can widen marketing margins if retail prices stay unchanged. Airline, paint and tyre stocks also gained as crude fell, which shows how broad the crude trade is. Another Business Standard note on 5 November said OMC stocks rose up to 7% as Brent cooled below $95. Brent was reported near $97 on 9 November in one source and below $91 on 11 November in others, so the exact level depends on the contract and the hour.
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HPCL, BPCL and IOC Q2 FY27 Results
| Company | Q2 FY27 profit | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Indian Oil | Standalone Rs 21,630 crore | Rs 7,610 crore a year earlier; consolidated Rs 22,503 crore |
| BPCL | Standalone Rs 4,993 crore | Down 22.5% from about Rs 6,443 crore; Q1 was a loss of Rs 3,962 crore |
| HPCL | Standalone Rs 3,482 crore | Down about 9% from Rs 3,830 crore; consolidated Rs 3,625 crore, down 6% |
| OMC stocks: combined standalone profit | Rs 30,106 crore | Up 68.3% year on year; Q1 combined loss about Rs 18,150 crore |
| OMC stocks: gross refining margin | BPCL $32.53 a barrel; HPCL $27.89 a barrel | BPCL was $10.78 a year earlier |
Business Standard reports a slightly different combined figure of Rs 29,896.1 crore, up 66.2%, because it adjusts for exceptional gains and losses, while the Rs 30,106 crore figure is reported standalone profit. Both show a sharp rebound from a heavy Q1 loss. The combined EBITDA margin was 10.1% of net sales, against 9.4% a year earlier and negative 1.9% in Q1. Strong refining margins and an excise cut that was not passed on to consumers lifted profits, while the three companies still lost money on LPG.
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The LPG Burden and the Inventory Loss Risk
| Risk | Figure or note | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| OMC stocks: negative LPG buffer, IOC | Rs 32,505.69 crore | Cumulative under-recovery as of 30 September |
| OMC stocks: negative LPG buffer, BPCL | Rs 17,334.40 crore | Same date |
| Negative LPG buffer, HPCL | Rs 18,048.82 crore | Same date |
| HPCL: total (my arithmetic) | About Rs 67,900 crore | Sum of the three figures above |
| LPG compensation recognised | Yes Securities cites Rs 3,620 crore of LPG subsidy compensation in Q2 | Compensation is partial and policy driven |
| Inventory losses | IOC warned falling crude could cause losses in later quarters | A fast crude fall can hurt reported profit |
| ICRA stress case | Brent at $105 to $115 with flat prices could mean about Rs 64,000 crore of FY27 under-recoveries | A stress scenario and not a forecast |
Falling crude helps marketing margins but can create inventory losses, because the companies hold crude bought at higher prices. In May 2026 Nomura said IOC was better placed than HPCL and BPCL because of stronger refining integration, while HPCL and BPCL were more exposed to marketing losses. That view is from before the Q2 results, so read the latest brokerage notes.
Checklist and Risks
| Investor situation | Questions to consider |
|---|---|
| Existing holder | Has a 10% to 13.5% November gain changed my target weight in the sector? |
| New investor | Have I read the Q2 filings and the LPG and inventory notes, not only the crude headline? |
| Short-term trader | Can I handle a reversal if Brent rises on US and Iran headlines? |
| Long-term investor | Do government pricing control and subsidy burden fit my time horizon? |
The main risks are a crude rebound if US and Iran talks fail, inventory losses as crude falls, the unpaid LPG burden, forex losses, changes in excise or retail pricing and the risk that the three companies behave differently. Univest does not recommend any security.
Conclusion
OMC stocks have gained 10% to 13.5% in November as Brent fell below $90, and the three companies earned Rs 30,106 crore standalone in Q2 FY27 after a Q1 loss. The Rs 67,900 crore LPG burden and inventory losses are the risks to weigh. Read the filings and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before acting.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions on OMC Stocks, HPCL, BPCL and IOCL
Why are OMC stocks rising in November?
Ans. HPCL, BPCL and IOC have gained 10% to 13.5% in November as Brent crude fell below $90 on US and Iran peace hopes, lifting hopes of better marketing margins. Q2 FY27 profits also rebounded sharply from Q1 losses.
What were the Q2 FY27 profits of HPCL, BPCL and IOC?
Ans. On a standalone basis, IOC reported Rs 21,630 crore, BPCL Rs 4,993 crore and HPCL Rs 3,482 crore, together Rs 30,106 crore. Business Standard's adjusted combined figure is Rs 29,896.1 crore.
Does lower crude always help OMC stocks?
Ans. No. Lower crude prices can widen marketing margins if retail prices stay unchanged, but a fast fall can cause inventory losses, and refining margins and policy also matter.
What is the LPG under-recovery problem?
Ans. The companies sell LPG below cost at government-controlled prices. As of 30 September the negative LPG buffer was Rs 32,505.69 crore at IOC, Rs 17,334.40 crore at BPCL and Rs 18,048.82 crore at HPCL, about Rs 67,900 crore in total by my arithmetic.
Which of the three is better placed?
Ans. In May 2026 Nomura said IOC was better placed because of refining integration, while HPCL and BPCL were more exposed to marketing losses. That view predates the Q2 results, so check newer notes. Univest does not rate these stocks.
Why do the combined profit figures differ?
Ans. Rs 30,106 crore is the reported standalone total, up 68.3%, while Business Standard's Rs 29,896.1 crore is adjusted for exceptional items, up 66.2%. They use different bases.
What could reverse the rally in OMC stocks?
Ans. A rebound in Brent if US and Iran talks fail, inventory losses as crude falls, a bigger LPG burden or unfavourable pricing and excise decisions.
Should I invest in HPCL, BPCL or IOC now?
Ans. Univest does not recommend any security. Crude, margins, LPG losses and policy all matter, so read the filings and consult a SEBI-registered adviser.
