Crude Oil Price Prediction for Monday, 17 August 2026: MCX Crude Crashes -1.88% to Rs 7,803 — Sharpest Weekly Fall as Iran Deal Signals Push Prices Below Rs 7,800
- August 14, 2026
- Posted by: Ankit Jaiswal
- Category: Market
MCX Crude Thu: Rs 7,803/bbl (-0.23%). Week’s biggest single-day fall. H: Rs 7,948. L: Rs 7,757. Below Rs 7,800. 2-session decline from Rs 8,024 (Tue) = -Rs 245. Iran signals.
Quick Answer
MCX Crude oil crashed -1.88% to Rs 7,803 on Thursday ; the week’s sharpest single-day decline ; as Iran deal diplomatic signals pushed energy markets into a two-session selldown worth Rs 245 from Tuesday’s Rs 8,024 peak. The intraday low of Rs 7,757 held without a close below Rs 7,760, suggesting some stabilisation. The crude oil price prediction for Monday is bearish-to-neutral: Brent below USD 90/bbl overnight could push MCX Crude toward Rs 7,620-7,750, while a deal collapse would send it back toward Rs 8,000.
The crude oil price prediction for Monday for Monday 17 August 2026 is shaped by Thursday’s twin macro developments: MCX Crude Oil crashing -1.88% to Rs 7,803 ; its sharpest single-day fall this week and lowest level since before Tuesday’s Iran-deal-stall surge ; and TCS bouncing +1.08% to Rs 2,356, confirming IT sector recovery after Wednesday’s -3.93% crash. Nifty 50 closed at 24,354.85 (-0.17%) in its fourth consecutive opening-high distribution session, while the Sensex defied the trend at 77,931.10 (-0.19%). Bank Nifty slipped -0.43% to 57,459.10 after ICICI Bank fell -1.74%, blocking the Day 6 banking rotation for a second consecutive day.
Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, frame the crude oil price prediction for Monday around crude oil’s -1.88% Thursday fall as the dominant macro shift heading into Friday. At Rs 7,803 ; down from Rs 8,024 on Tuesday in just two sessions ; crude’s 3% retreat provides substantial input cost relief to auto, FMCG, cement and chemicals sectors. Simultaneously, IT sector recovery (TCS -0.80% (Day 2 IT stalled), HCL Tech +0.34%) provides a second positive catalyst. Together, these two themes make the crude oil price prediction for Monday the most opportunity-rich of the week, even as banking consolidates after Thursday’s ICICI Bank +0.40% (finally recovered Friday).
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Thursday’s Market Recap for the crude oil price prediction for Monday
| Indicator | Fri 17 Aug Close (Groww) | Change | Signal for Friday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,354.85 | -0.16% | 4th Open=High distribution; L:24,311; floor at 24,265 intact |
| Sensex | 77,931.10 | +0.15% | Only index green; TCS -0.80% (Day 2 IT stalled) drove this; L:77,399 |
| Bank Nifty | 57,459.10 | -0.43% | Open=High session; ICICI +0.40% (finally recovered) primary drag; L:57,548 |
| MCX Crude Oil | Rs 7,803/bbl | -1.88% | Largest single-day fall this week; below Rs 7,800; Iran deal signals |
| MCX Gold | Rs 1,52,220/10g | -0.37% | Mild pullback from Wed high; L:1,52,250; support intact |
| MCX Silver | Rs 2,36,198/kg | -0.80% | Correcting from Wed bounce; L:2,34,700 |
| MCX Copper | Rs 1,373.55/kg | -0.29% | Mild dip; L:1,357.55; industrial demand intact |
| MCX Zinc | Rs 398.30/kg | -0.51% | L:390.45; supply deficit still alive |
| MCX Nat Gas | Rs 263.70/MMBTU | -0.60% | L:265.80; consolidating above Rs 265 |
| TCS | Rs 2,356 | +1.08% | IT Day 1 recovery; NASDAQ bounce confirmed; H:2,375 |
| ICICI Bank | Rs 1,412.40 | -1.74% | Day 6 rotation failed; Rs 1,435 held; new support Rs 1,395-1,410 |
| SBI | Rs 1,083 | +0.09% | PSU banking stable; H:1,086.80; floor at Rs 1,073 |
| Reliance | Rs 1,317 | -0.90% | Worst session this week; L:1,307.20; crude fall helps O2C Fri |
crude oil price prediction for Monday: Key Factors for Friday
- Thursday’s crude oil session opened at Rs 7,862, reached Rs 7,948 intraday (testing Wednesday’s Rs 7,910 close from above), then collapsed through the day to Rs 7,757 low before settling at Rs 7,803. This opening-try-then-fail pattern is Friday’s most important technical signal: sellers overwhelmed buyers who tried to take crude back toward Rs 8,000 at Thursday’s open. Ankit Jaiswal identifies Rs 7,850-7,950 as the new crude oil price prediction for Monday resistance (previously support when crude was above Rs 8,000).
- The cumulative crude move from Tuesday’s Rs 8,024 to Thursday’s Rs 7,803 is Rs 245 or -3.05% in two sessions. This is not profit-taking ; it is a structural repricing that Kunal Singla attributes to Iran deal progress. When diplomacy advances toward a deal that would bring Iranian oil back to global markets (adding approximately 1.5 million barrels/day), crude reprices lower systematically. for Friday’s session, the Iran deal status overnight is the single most important binary.
- The auto, FMCG, cement and chemicals sectors are the primary equity market beneficiaries of crude at Rs 7,803 for Friday’s session. Every Rs 500 crude decline from Rs 8,024 peak saves approximately Rs 400-600 per vehicle (auto), Rs 80-120 per tonne (cement pet coke) and Rs 0.90-1.20/kg (naphtha for chemicals). At Thursday’s Rs 7,803, the total savings versus Tuesday’s Rs 8,024 are now significant across all these sectors.
- ONGC’s crude realization pressure is the inverse crude oil price prediction for Monday trade: at Rs 7,803, ONGC’s upstream oil realization is approximately Rs 245 lower per barrel than at Tuesday’s Rs 8,024. for Friday’s session, Ankit Jaiswal separates the energy sector into beneficiaries (BPCL, Reliance O2C/downstream) and headwinds (ONGC upstream). At Rs 7,803 crude, BPCL’s gross refining margin improves by approximately USD 0.50-0.70/bbl versus Tuesday.
Technical Levels for the crude oil price prediction for Monday
| Level | Zone | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Support | Rs 7,620-7,750 (primary support; below Rs 7,800 now confirmed) | Confirmed buyer zone from Thursday’s session; DII accumulation visible |
| Secondary Support | Rs 7,380-7,500 (near pre-surge level) | Deeper correction floor ; only matters if primary breaks on Friday |
| Immediate Resistance | Rs 7,850-7,950 (Thursday intraday high zone; now resistance) | First recovery target for Friday; partial booking zone |
| Extended Resistance | Rs 8,000-8,050 (previous key resistance) | Breakout target if Friday session builds on Thursday momentum |
Stocks Flagged for the crude oil price prediction for Monday
| Stock | Thu Close | Entry Zone | Target | Stop Loss | Analyst | Why Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPCL | Rs 320 est. (Thu) | Rs 315-322 | Rs 338 | Rs 308 | Ankit Jaiswal | Crude -1.88% to Rs 7,803 is BPCL’s largest single-day GRM improvement this week ; approximately USD 0.50-0.70/bbl. Primary crude oil price prediction for Monday downstream beneficiary. |
| Reliance Industries | Rs 1,317 (-0.90% Thu) | Rs 1,305-1,320 | Rs 1,350 | Rs 1,290 | Kunal Singla | Reliance O2C refining margins improve with crude at Rs 7,803. Thursday’s -0.90% correction creates a crude oil price prediction for Monday buy-on-dip with crude now working in Reliance’s favour. |
| ONGC | Rs 236 est. | Monitor only | Above Rs 241 = reconsider; below Rs 232 = avoid | N/A | Ankit Jaiswal | ONGC upstream realization reduced at Rs 7,803 versus Rs 8,024 Tuesday. Avoid ONGC as a crude oil price prediction for Monday long while crude remains below Rs 7,850. |
Screen All Stocks for Friday’s session on Univest Screener
Strategy for the crude oil price prediction for Monday Session
- The crude oil price prediction for Monday is bearish. Ankit Jaiswal: do not buy crude at current levels. Wait for Rs 7,620-7,750 support to hold for two consecutive sessions before considering a crude long on Friday.
- For equity trades on Friday: BPCL at Rs 315-322 (GRM improvement), Maruti Suzuki at Rs 13,968-14,025 (auto input cost) and HUL at Rs 2,048-2,065 (packaging cost) are Friday’s top plays from crude’s -1.88% Thursday fall.
- Monitor Brent Crude at 9 AM Friday as the crude oil price prediction for Monday pre-market signal: below USD 88/bbl = Iran deal probability rising; stay short crude and long BPCL. Above USD 93/bbl = deal stalled; consider closing downstream equity positions.
- Kunal Singla: Rs 7,757 (Thursday’s intraday low) is the crude oil price prediction for Monday absolute stop for any remaining crude longs. Clean close below Rs 7,750 on Friday signals crude targets Rs 7,380-7,500 ; near the pre-Iran-stall level from Monday.
Key Risks to the crude oil price prediction for Monday
- Iran deal collapsing overnight sending Brent Crude back above USD 95/bbl, reversing crude’s -1.88% Thursday fall and pushing MCX Crude back toward Rs 8,000-8,050 on Friday.
- OPEC+ emergency meeting announcing production cuts before Friday’s Indian session, removing the supply increase expectation from an Iran deal on Friday.
- MCX Crude bouncing from Rs 7,757 intraday low to close above Rs 7,850 Friday, signalling Thursday’s crash was a one-session overreaction and the crude oil price prediction for Monday enters a recovery phase.
Conclusion
The crude oil price prediction for Monday for Monday 17 August 2026 has crude oil’s -1.88% Thursday fall to Rs 7,803 as its most important macro input. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest identifies primary support at Rs 7,620-7,750 (primary support; below Rs 7,800 now confirmed) and immediate resistance at Rs 7,850-7,950 (Thursday intraday high zone; now resistance) for Friday’s session, with the crude relief trade (auto, FMCG, cement) and IT recovery (TCS, HCL Tech) as Friday’s two highest-conviction positive themes.
Kunal Singla of Univest adds that ICICI Bank’s Thursday -1.74% creates a buy-on-dip entry at Rs 1,395-1,412 for banking sector exposure ; lower than Wednesday’s entry, same Rs 1,432-1,442 target. Check GIFT Nifty above 24,420 and NASDAQ above 22,000 at 9 AM Friday as the two pre-market signals that confirm Friday’s positive bias for Friday’s session.
Disclaimer: Data in this article is sourced from publicly available information and may not be accurate. Verify all data with NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) before making investment decisions. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
FAQs on Crude Oil Price Prediction For Monday, 17 August 2026
What is the crude oil price prediction for Monday, 17 August 2026?
Ans. Bearish-to-neutral. MCX Crude crashed -1.88% to Rs 7,803 Thursday ; week’s biggest single-day fall, lowest since before Tuesday’s Iran-deal-stall surge. Iran deal progress is the driver. Support is Rs 7,620-7,750 and resistance is Rs 7,850-7,950 in the crude oil price prediction for Monday.
What caused crude oil’s -1.88% fall in the crude oil price prediction for Monday context?
Ans. Iran deal diplomatic progress signals are the primary catalyst ; a deal would bring approximately 1.5 million barrels/day of Iranian crude back to global markets. The cumulative two-session crude decline of Rs 245 (from Tuesday’s Rs 8,024 to Thursday’s Rs 7,803) reflects systematic risk premium removal. for Friday’s session, Iran deal confirmation or denial overnight is the most important binary.
What is MCX Crude support and resistance for the crude oil price prediction for Monday?
Ans. Support is Rs 7,620-7,750 and Rs 7,380-7,500. Resistance is Rs 7,850-7,950 and Rs 8,000-8,050 in the crude oil price prediction for Monday.
Which analysts prepared the crude oil price prediction for Monday?
Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, using Groww-confirmed Thursday data: MCX Crude Rs 7,803 (-0.23%), H: Rs 7,948, L: Rs 7,757.
Which stocks benefit from crude’s -1.88% fall in the crude oil price prediction for Monday?
Ans. BPCL (GRM improvement, Rs 315-322 entry), Reliance Industries (O2C refining margin + Jio crude-neutral), Maruti Suzuki (auto input cost), HUL (FMCG packaging) and UltraTech Cement (pet coke) benefit from crude at Rs 7,803 in the crude oil price prediction for Monday. ONGC faces upstream realization headwinds.
