Banking and NBFC Stocks in Samvat 2083: Credit Growth Near 18%, a Rate Hike and the Numbers to Watch
- November 5, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: Market
Bank credit +17.94% YoY to Rs 232.54 lakh crore (15 Oct 2026). Deposits +16.6%. Repo rate 5.50%. Bank Nifty 57,759 on 5 Nov, +3.3% on the day.
Quick Answer
Banking and NBFC stocks in Samvat 2083 start with strong loan growth but new pressure on margins. RBI data showed bank credit up 17.94% year on year as of 15 October 2026, against about 11% a year earlier, while the RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50% on 7 October. The numbers to watch are credit and deposit growth, net interest margins and asset quality, because faster lending at higher funding costs can cut both ways.
Banking and NBFC stocks in Samvat 2083 enter the year with the strongest loan growth in years and a fresh challenge from rising interest rates. Bank credit grew 17.94% year on year to Rs 232.54 lakh crore as of 15 October 2026, according to RBI data, outpacing 16.6% deposit growth. A year earlier, credit growth was only about 11%.
At the same time, the RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on 7 October 2026, its first hike since February 2023. This article explains what the credit cycle means for banking and NBFC stocks and the numbers investors should track.
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How Strong Is Credit Growth Right Now?
Credit growth is the strongest it has been in more than two years. Non-food bank credit grew 19.1% year on year as of 30 September 2026, against 11.2% a year earlier, RBI data showed. Lending to services grew 28.3%, agriculture and industry 19.5% each, and personal loans 17.3%.
| Indicator | Latest | Year earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Bank credit growth (YoY) | 17.94% (15 Oct 2026) | About 11.5% (17 Oct 2025) |
| Bank credit outstanding | Rs 232.54 lakh crore | Rs 197.17 lakh crore |
| Deposit growth (YoY) | 16.60% | 9.7% (31 Oct 2025) |
| Non-food credit growth | 19.1% (30 Sep 2026) | 11.2% |
| Repo rate | 5.50% (hiked 7 Oct 2026) | 5.50% (Oct 2025), later cut to 5.25% |
Source: RBI data as reported by PTI and All India Radio. Repo rate history from RBI policy statements.
Part of the October surge came from festive demand and a liquidity surplus of Rs 2 lakh crore to Rs 4.5 lakh crore in the banking system in early October. The question for Samvat 2083 is whether that pace holds after the festive season.
How Will the Rate Hike Affect Banks and NBFCs?
The rate hike affects banking and NBFC stocks differently. Banks with many loans linked to the repo rate can reprice those loans quickly, which can support margins in the short term, while deposit costs usually rise later. CareEdge expects the hike to feed into external-benchmark loans first and MCLR-linked loans later.
NBFCs tend to feel higher funding costs faster because they borrow from banks and bond markets. The RBI’s October bulletin also noted that NBFCs’ dependence on bank borrowing rose in 2025. PL Capital flagged margin pressure from the repo hike in its note on Bajaj Finance, even as the lender’s AUM grew 26% to about Rs 5.85 lakh crore in Q2 FY27.
Banking and NBFC Stocks on 5 November 2026
Banking and NBFC stocks led the pre-Diwali rally. Bank Nifty was up 3.3% at 57,759 at 1:55 PM on 5 November 2026, while the Nifty PSU Bank index rose 3.2%.
| Stock | Type | Price (Rs) | Change on 5 Nov |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICICI Bank | Private bank | 1,488.10 | +4.49% |
| HDFC Bank | Private bank | 757.90 | +2.88% |
| State Bank of India | PSU bank | 1,003.65 | +2.52% |
| Axis Bank | Private bank | 1,276.40 | +3.60% |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | Private bank | 467.40 | +1.74% |
| Bajaj Finance | NBFC | 1,066.50 | +7.29% |
| Shriram Finance | NBFC | 969.95 | +6.73% |
NSE prices at about 1:34 PM to 1:56 PM IST on 5 November 2026.
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What to Watch in Credit Growth Through Samvat 2083
- Credit vs deposit growth: credit is growing faster than deposits, which can push banks to pay more for deposits and squeeze margins.
- Net interest margins: watch quarterly NIM trends in the Q3 FY27 results in January for the first full effect of the hike.
- Asset quality: fast loan growth in personal loans and NBFC books needs to be matched by stable bad-loan ratios and credit costs.
- RBI’s next move: SBI Research expects another 25 basis point hike in December, which would add to funding costs.
- AUM guidance: Bajaj Finance raised its FY27 AUM growth guidance to 26% to 27%, a sign of strong demand that investors can track each quarter.
The direction of banking and NBFC stocks also matters for the market as a whole. Financials are the largest weight in the Nifty 50, so the direction of bank earnings will strongly influence the index in Samvat 2083.
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Risks for Banking and NBFC Stocks in Samvat 2083
The main risks are a sharper rate cycle, a slowdown after the festive season and stress in unsecured loans. Bank Nifty fell about 3.6% in Samvat 2082 even as lending accelerated, which shows that loan growth alone does not guarantee stock returns. Higher inflation, at 5.54% in September 2026, could also slow consumer borrowing.
Conclusion
Banking and NBFC stocks in Samvat 2083 have strong credit growth behind them but face a rate cycle that could squeeze margins. Track credit and deposit growth, NIMs and asset quality each quarter rather than relying on headline loan growth. Compare valuations and balance sheets before choosing between banks and NBFCs.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. Past performance does not indicate future returns, and illustrative figures are not guaranteed. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current bank credit growth in India?
Ans. Bank credit in India grew 17.94% year on year to Rs 232.54 lakh crore as of 15 October 2026, according to RBI data. Deposits grew 16.6% to Rs 284.37 lakh crore. Non-food credit grew 19.1% as of 30 September 2026, compared with 11.2% a year earlier.
How will the RBI rate hike affect bank stocks?
Ans. The RBI's 25 basis point hike to 5.50% can affect bank stocks in two ways. Loans linked to the repo rate reprice quickly, which can support margins at first, but deposit costs usually rise later and can squeeze margins over time. The effect varies by bank depending on its loan and deposit mix.
Are NBFC stocks affected more by rate hikes?
Ans. NBFC stocks are often affected more quickly by rate hikes because NBFCs borrow from banks and bond markets and their funding costs rise sooner. Analysts at PL Capital flagged margin pressure for Bajaj Finance after the repo hike. NBFCs with strong pricing power and stable funding are usually better placed.
Why did Bank Nifty fall in Samvat 2082 despite strong credit growth?
Ans. Bank Nifty fell about 3.6% in Samvat 2082 because foreign investors sold heavily and rising rates raised concerns about margins, even as loan growth improved. Stock returns depend on valuations, margins and asset quality, not just loan growth. The index rebounded 3.3% on 5 November 2026 as crude prices cooled.
What should investors watch in banking stocks in Samvat 2083?
Ans. Investors should watch credit growth versus deposit growth, net interest margins, bad-loan ratios and credit costs, and the RBI's next rate decision. The Q3 FY27 results in January will show the first full quarter after the October hike. These numbers give a clearer picture than share price moves alone.
Is credit growth of 18% sustainable?
Ans. Credit growth near 18% may be hard to sustain if deposits keep growing more slowly and rates rise further. Part of the October 2026 surge came from festive demand and surplus liquidity. Investors should check whether growth stays strong after the festive season and whether asset quality holds up.
Which is better in Samvat 2083, banks or NBFCs?
Ans. Neither is better for every investor. Banks have lower-cost deposit funding and can reprice repo-linked loans quickly, while NBFCs often grow faster but face higher funding costs when rates rise. The right choice depends on valuations, risk appetite and goals, so consult a SEBI-registered adviser if unsure.
