Sensex Prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026: Heavyweights Hold the Line Into RBI Policy Week

The Sensex prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026, points to a range bound session with a mild positive bias, as the index closed Friday at 78,094.64, up 166.49 points or 0.21 percent, extending its climb back from the 75,474.43 low of 24 July. That recovery, now worth more than 2,600 points, sits at the centre of this Sensex prediction for Monday as the index heads into a week dominated by the RBI policy verdict rather than any expiry pressure of its own.

Univest analysts Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director, have prepared this Sensex prediction for Monday using Friday's closing data, moving averages and the heavyweight stock scorecard that has driven the index's recent recovery. Ankit Jaiswal focuses on the technical structure while Kunal Singla brings in the flow and policy context shaping the week ahead.

Sensex Closing Overview for the Prediction for Monday

• The Sensex closed at 78,094.64 on Friday, up 0.21 percent, having recovered from a 90 day low of 75,474.43 on 24 July to within striking distance of its 90 day high of 78,282.55 set on 17 July.
• The index gained just 0.13 percent net over the past two weeks despite the sharp mid month dip, underlining how quickly the recovery has unwound the earlier correction, a swing this Sensex prediction for Monday treats as the defining feature of the current setup.
• India VIX eased to 11.76, down 3.29 percent, a calm reading that supports the range bound tone in this Sensex prediction for Monday rather than pointing to a sharp directional break.

Sensex Technical Analysis for the Prediction for Monday

Metric	Level
Friday Close	78,094.64 (+0.21%)
14 Day RSI	53.57 (neutral to bullish)
50 Day Moving Average	76,393.95 (support)
200 Day Moving Average	80,108.52 (distant resistance)
Support	77,800 / 77,400 / 76,800
Resistance	78,300 / 78,520 / 79,000

Ankit Jaiswal builds this Sensex prediction for Monday around the index trading well above its 50 day moving average of 76,393.95, which he reads as a strong near term support cushion, while the 200 day average near 80,108.52 remains far enough away to be a background reference rather than an active resistance level for the coming week. A close above 78,300 would put the 78,520 mark, close to Friday's intraday high, back in focus, while a slip below 77,800 would risk a retest of the 77,400 zone.

Sensex Heavyweight Scorecard for the Prediction for Monday

Stock	Friday Close	Change
Reliance Industries	Rs 1,307.80	+1.15%
TCS	Rs 2,365.60	-2.72%
HDFC Bank	Rs 748.15	-0.77%
ICICI Bank	Rs 1,435.40	+0.10%
Mahindra and Mahindra	Rs 3,398.50	+3.50%

Kunal Singla notes that Friday's Sensex gain came from a clearly mixed heavyweight scorecard, with Reliance Industries and Mahindra and Mahindra offsetting weakness in TCS and HDFC Bank, a pattern that keeps this Sensex prediction for Monday balanced rather than driven by a single sector. He is watching whether energy and auto strength can continue to absorb any renewed softness from IT and banking heavyweights through the coming week.

F&O Calendar for the Sensex Prediction for Monday

• The Sensex weekly options expiry falls on Thursday, 6 August, not Monday, since BSE moved its weekly expiry to Thursday as part of the September 2025 exchange restructuring.
• The Sensex monthly expiry, also on the last Thursday of the month, falls later in August, so this Sensex prediction for Monday carries no direct expiry pressure for the opening session of the week.
• Volume on Sensex derivatives remains far lower than on Nifty 50 contracts, so the Tuesday Nifty expiry is unlikely to spill over meaningfully into Sensex positioning.

Global Cues for the Sensex Prediction for Monday

• Wall Street rallied on Thursday, with the Dow Jones up 1.19 percent to 52,208.06 and the S&P 500 up 1.66 percent to 7,437.63, a backdrop that supports the mild positive bias in this Sensex prediction for Monday.
• Brent crude eased to 89.03 dollars a barrel on Thursday after an earlier spike above 93 dollars tied to Iran related strikes, a moderation that removes some pressure from oil sensitive Sensex constituents.
• Gift Nifty August futures traded near 24,422 on Friday morning, and Friday night's Wall Street session together with any weekend West Asia developments will shape the actual Monday opening gap.

RBI MPC Week and the Sensex Prediction for Monday

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee begins its three day meeting on Monday, 3 August, with the rate decision due Wednesday, 5 August. Given how heavily banking and financial stocks are weighted in the Sensex, this Sensex prediction for Monday treats the policy outcome as the dominant catalyst for the week, ahead of Thursday's weekly expiry. The repo rate has been held at 5.25 percent for three consecutive reviews, and consensus expects another pause, though the RBI's commentary on liquidity and inflation could move rate sensitive heavyweights before the formal Wednesday announcement.

Sensex Prediction for Monday: Trading Strategy

• Use 77,800 as the near term pivot for Monday; holding above it keeps the range bound bullish reading in this Sensex prediction for Monday intact.
• A close above 78,300 would open a path toward 78,520, while a break below 77,400 would shift the bias more defensive.
• Keep exposure to rate sensitive heavyweights measured ahead of Wednesday's RBI verdict rather than adding aggressively into the event.
• Watch Reliance Industries and the auto majors for continued leadership, since they have offset IT and banking softness through the recent recovery.

What Sentiment Data Adds to the Sensex Prediction for Monday

FIIs bought a net Rs 3,623.50 crore in the cash segment on 30 July, a flow that has underpinned the Sensex's climb back toward its July highs and remains a supportive input into this Sensex prediction for Monday. DIIs booked Rs 1,864.03 crore of net sales the same session, a pattern Ankit Jaiswal reads as domestic funds trimming into FII led strength rather than a sign of broader caution. India VIX at 11.76, down 3.29 percent on Friday, points to calm positioning ahead of the RBI verdict.

Kunal Singla adds that the Sensex's recovery has been broader than a single sector rally, spanning energy, auto and select banking names, which is a healthier setup for this Sensex prediction for Monday than a narrow, momentum driven bounce would be. He cautions, however, that low volatility ahead of a major policy event can unwind quickly if the RBI surprises the market, so the current calm should not be read as a guarantee of continued smooth trade.

Risks to the Sensex Prediction for Monday

• A hawkish RBI tone on Wednesday remains the biggest risk to this Sensex prediction for Monday, given the index's heavy weighting toward rate sensitive financial stocks.
• Renewed weakness in TCS or other IT heavyweights could offset gains from energy and auto, capping the index's upside.
• A fresh escalation in the Iran-US standoff over the weekend could push crude oil back above 90 dollars a barrel and weigh on sentiment.
• A reversal in Thursday's Wall Street rally when US markets trade Friday night could flip Gift Nifty's current mild positive bias ahead of Monday's open.

Conclusion

This Sensex prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026, favours a range bound session with a mild positive bias, with the index likely to trade between 77,800 support and 78,300 to 78,520 resistance. Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla both point to the index's broad based recovery and calm volatility as reasons for cautious optimism, while flagging the RBI policy verdict on Wednesday as the dominant event risk for the week. A close above 78,300 would strengthen this Sensex prediction for Monday, while a break below 77,400 would call for a more defensive stance.

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What is the Sensex prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026?

Ans. The Sensex prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026, favours a range bound session with a mild positive bias, with support at 77,800 and 77,400, and resistance at 78,300 and 78,520.

Where is Sensex support and resistance for Monday?

Ans. Sensex support for Monday is at 77,800, then 77,400 near the recent pivot, and 76,800 close to the 50 day moving average. Resistance is at 78,300, then 78,520 and 79,000.

Is there a Sensex expiry on Monday, 3 August 2026?

Ans. No. The Sensex weekly options expiry falls on Thursday, 6 August, not Monday, following BSE's September 2025 move of the weekly expiry from Tuesday to Thursday.

How will the RBI MPC meeting affect the Sensex prediction for Monday?

Ans. The RBI Monetary Policy Committee meets from 3 to 5 August, with the rate decision due Wednesday. Given the Sensex's heavy weighting toward banking and financial stocks, this Sensex prediction for Monday treats the verdict as the dominant trigger.

Which stocks are driving the Sensex prediction for Monday?

Ans. Reliance Industries and Mahindra and Mahindra led Friday's gains, up 1.15 percent and 3.5 percent respectively, while TCS and HDFC Bank were the main drags, falling 2.72 percent and 0.77 percent.

What is the Sensex RSI ahead of Monday's session?

Ans. The Sensex's 14 day RSI stood at 53.57 on Friday, a neutral to bullish reading, with the index trading above its 50 day moving average of 76,393.95.

What do Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla expect from the Sensex on Monday?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal expects the Sensex to hold above its 50 day moving average and test resistance near 78,300 to 78,520, while Kunal Singla flags the RBI verdict and IT sector softness as the main swing factors for the week.

Should investors buy Sensex stocks ahead of the RBI policy decision?

Ans. Univest analysts suggest keeping exposure to rate sensitive heavyweights measured ahead of Wednesday's RBI verdict, and recommend consulting a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.