NMDC Share Price Target 2027: Base and Bull Targets Built on FY26 Earnings

Investors weighing an NMDC target price for 2027 should start with where the stock sits today. At Rs 71.80 on 9 October 2026, it is 26.4% below its 52-week high of Rs 97.49 and 2.4% above its 52-week low of Rs 70.10. That range spans 39% from low to high, so the entry point matters as much as the NMDC price forecast itself.

This article builds the NMDC share price target from reported numbers only: five years of annual results, the last five quarters, the latest shareholding pattern and current valuation ratios from company filings and exchange data. Each scenario shows its assumptions, so you can see exactly how the Rs 81.8 base case and the Rs 99.0 bull case were reached, along with a downside risk level of Rs 56.6.

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NMDC Stock Analysis: Company Overview and Key Stats

NMDC (NSE: NMDC) has a market capitalisation of Rs 62,246 crore. In FY26 it reported revenue of Rs 33,559 crore and net profit of Rs 7,415 crore. The table collects the figures the NMDC share price target is built on.

Metric	Value
Company	NMDC
NSE Ticker	NMDC
CMP (9 October 2026)	Rs 71.80
52-Week High	Rs 97.49
52-Week Low	Rs 70.10
Market Cap	Rs 62,246 crore
PE Ratio (TTM)	8.35
Industry PE	10.06
Price to Book	1.83
Return on Equity	21.87%
Debt to Equity	0.19
EPS (TTM)	Rs 8.48
Dividend Yield	4.94%
12-Month Base Target	Rs 81.8
Bull Case	Rs 99.0
Downside Risk Level (not a target)	Rs 56.6

Why Is NMDC Share Price Target Set at Rs 81.8 for 2027?

The base-case NMDC stock target of Rs 81.8 applies a PE multiple of 8.35 to a forward EPS estimate of Rs 9.80. That EPS assumes 15.6% yearly growth, the pace from FY24 to FY26, and puts the target 13.9% above the current price. The bull case adds faster earnings growth and a higher multiple, while the downside risk level assumes flat earnings and a lower multiple.

Earnings Growth Behind the NMDC Target Price: Five Years of Results

NMDC grew revenue from Rs 26,683 crore in FY22 to Rs 33,559 crore in FY26, a compound annual growth rate of 5.9%. Net profit grew more slowly, from Rs 9,441 crore to Rs 7,415 crore (-5.9% a year), which points to margin pressure alongside the sales growth.

Financial Year	Revenue (Rs Cr)	Net Profit (Rs Cr)	EPS (Rs)	Dividend per Share (Rs)
FY22	26,683.31	9,441.10	32.17	14.74
FY23	18,435.10	5,538.40	19.11	6.60
FY24	22,678.53	5,572.24	6.34	7.25
FY25	25,498.84	6,539.75	7.44	3.30
FY26	33,559.27	7,415.37	8.47	3.50

FY26 revenue growth was 31.6%, faster than the four-year average of 5.9%, and net profit moved up 13.4%. EPS rose from Rs 6.34 in FY24 to Rs 8.47 in FY26. The FY27 outlook depends on whether that EPS estimate keeps compounding.

Margins and the Latest Quarter

NMDC converted 22.1% of FY26 revenue into net profit, against 25.6% in FY25, within a five-year range of 22.1% to 35.4%. EBITDA margin was 32.0% in FY26 versus 38.2% in FY25.

In the June 2026 quarter, revenue was Rs 7,143 crore, up 1.5% from the same quarter a year earlier, while net profit of Rs 2,006 crore was up 1.9%. EBITDA came in at Rs 2,816 crore, up 1.3% year on year. The next quarterly result is the first test of whether the earnings assumption holds.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

Debt to equity stands at 0.19, and shareholders' equity grew from Rs 18,032 crore in FY22 to Rs 34,076 crore in FY26. Operating cash flow in FY26 was Rs 4,996 crore against capital expenditure of Rs 3,171 crore, leaving free cash flow of Rs 1,826 crore, or 2.9% of the current market capitalisation. In FY25 free cash flow was negative at Rs 1,336 crore, so cash generation has not been steady year to year.

Valuation Check for the NMDC Stock Target: PE, Price to Book and ROE

At a PE of 8.35 against an industry PE of 10.06, NMDC trades at a discount to its industry. Price to book is 1.83 on a book value of Rs 38.74 per share, and return on equity is 21.87%. A PE of 8.35 equals an earnings yield of 12.0%, and the FY26 dividend of Rs 3.50 per share gives a yield of 4.94%.

Shareholding Pattern and Institutional Holding

Promoters held 60.79% of NMDC in June 2026, and promoter holding has stayed near 60.79% since June 2025. Foreign institutional investors (FII) held 13.59% and domestic institutions (DII) held 13.81%, which puts total institutional holding at 27.40%. FII holding rose from 12.21% in June 2025 to 13.59% in June 2026. Public shareholders own the remaining 11.80%. A meaningful institutional holding adds a layer of research coverage and trading depth.

NMDC Share Price Targets for the Short Term and 12 Months

Short Term NMDC Stock Target Levels: Technical Setup

At Rs 71.80 on 9 October 2026, NMDC trades below its 50-day simple moving average of Rs 82.35 and below its 200-day exponential moving average of Rs 82.22. The 14-day RSI reads 27.8, which is oversold territory, and the MACD line sits below its signal line. The nearest resistance level is Rs 82.22 (200-day exponential moving average) and the nearest support is Rs 70.10 (52-week low). A sustained move above Rs 82.22 would improve the short-term setup, while a close below Rs 70.10 would shift attention to the next support.

12 Month NMDC Target Price for 2027

The 12-month target for NMDC is Rs 81.8: forward EPS of Rs 9.80 at a PE of 8.35. That is 13.9% above Rs 71.80. It would still leave the stock 16.1% below its 52-week high of Rs 97.49.

How EPS Growth and PE Multiple Change the NMDC Target Price

EPS Growth	PE 6.68	PE 8.35	PE 9.60
0.0% (EPS Rs 8.48)	Rs 56.6	Rs 70.8	Rs 81.4
15.6% (EPS Rs 9.80)	Rs 65.5	Rs 81.8	Rs 94.1
21.6% (EPS Rs 10.31)	Rs 68.9	Rs 86.1	Rs 99.0

Each cell multiplies the forward EPS estimate by the PE shown. Reading across a row shows what a de-rating or re-rating does to the NMDC price forecast, and reading down a column shows what earnings growth is worth at a fixed multiple.

Bull Case and Downside Risk for NMDC Stock Target in 2027

Bull Case Rs 99.0

The bull case NMDC price target needs EPS growth of 21.6%, which lifts forward EPS to Rs 10.31, and a PE multiple that rises 15% to 9.60. That gives Rs 99.0, 37.9% above the current price and above the 52-week high of Rs 97.49, so the stock would have to set a fresh 52-week high.

Downside Risk Level Rs 56.6

The downside risk level is not a target. It assumes EPS stays flat at Rs 8.48 and the PE falls 20% to 6.68. That gives Rs 56.6, 21.2% below the current price and below the 52-week low of Rs 70.10.

Scenario	EPS Growth	PE Multiple	Price (Rs)	Change vs CMP
Bull Case	21.6%	9.60	Rs 99.0	+37.9%
Base Case	15.6%	8.35	Rs 81.8	+13.9%
Downside Risk	0.0%	6.68	Rs 56.6	-21.2%

Key Risks to the NMDC Target Price for 2027

Growth Slowdown Risk for the NMDC Price Target

Revenue in the June 2026 quarter was up 1.5% year on year, and FY26 revenue growth was 31.6%. If growth slows from here, the EPS estimate behind the NMDC stock target will need revising.

Liquidity and Size Risk

NMDC has a market capitalisation of Rs 62,246 crore. Institutional holding is 27.40%, and promoters hold 60.79%. A company of this size trades with deep liquidity, so entry and exit are rarely a problem, and the larger risk is paying too much for slow earnings growth.

Valuation and Margin Risk

Net margin was 22.1% in FY26, and a squeeze from higher costs or weaker pricing would hit earnings first. At a PE of 8.35 versus an industry PE of 10.06, a de-rating toward the downside-risk PE of 6.68 would cut the price even if earnings hold.

Market and Technical Risk

The stock trades 26.4% below its 52-week high, with an RSI of 27.8 and a MACD reading below its signal line. Broader market weakness can override company fundamentals in the short term.

How to Invest in NMDC

Start with the live price and volume. Any NMDC share price target is only as current as the data behind it, and the data here is as of 9 October 2026, so refresh the Rs 71.80 price before acting on any level.

Next, review the fundamentals yourself. The Univest Screener lets you check NMDC's PE, ROE, debt and shareholding in one place.

Check NMDC fundamentals on the Univest Screener

Then compare the three NMDC target price scenarios with your own view. If you expect EPS growth below 15.6%, the base case is too optimistic for you; if you expect more, the bull case deserves weight.

Decide your position size and exit levels before you buy. The support and resistance levels above can serve as reference points, but they are not recommendations.

Finally, place the order through a SEBI-registered broker or the Univest app, and review the position after each quarterly result. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor if you are unsure.

Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track NMDC live price and get daily stock recommendations.

Conclusion

The NMDC share price target for 2027 is Rs 81.8 in the base case, with Rs 99.0 as the bull case. The support for that view is arithmetic you can check: EPS grew 15.6% a year over FY24 to FY26, and the stock trades at a PE of 8.35. The risks are equally concrete, including a stock that sits 26.4% below its 52-week high and a downside scenario that cuts the price 21% if earnings stall. Use these numbers as a framework, check them against the latest filings, and size any position to your own risk appetite.

FAQs on NMDC Share Price Target 2027

What is the NMDC share price target for 2027?

Ans. The base-case NMDC share price target for 2027 is Rs 81.8, with Rs 99.0 as the bull case. The downside risk level, which is not a target, is Rs 56.6. These are model estimates from reported earnings and the current PE, not guaranteed outcomes.

What is the NMDC share price today?

Ans. As of 9 October 2026, 3:30 PM IST, NMDC trades at Rs 71.80, up 1.57% on the day. The 52-week range is Rs 70.10 to Rs 97.49.

Is NMDC a buy or sell at the current price?

Ans. The data is mixed rather than one-sided: EPS has grown 15.6% a year over FY24 to FY26, but the stock is 26.4% below its 52-week high. Whether NMDC fits your portfolio depends on your time horizon and risk appetite, so consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing. This article is not investment advice.

What are the bull case target and downside risk level for NMDC shares?

Ans. The bull case target is Rs 99.0, which assumes 21.6% EPS growth and a PE of 9.60. The downside risk level is Rs 56.6, which assumes flat EPS and a PE of 6.68. It marks a risk, not a target.

What are the main risks to the NMDC price target?

Ans. The main risks are slower revenue growth, a small market capitalisation of Rs 62,246 crore, a PE de-rating and short-term weakness in the broader market. Each is covered in the risk section above.

What is the PE ratio of NMDC and how does it compare with the industry?

Ans. The PE ratio of NMDC is 8.35 against an industry PE of 10.06. Price to book is 1.83 and return on equity is 21.87%. The base case in the NMDC price target holds this PE constant.

Who owns NMDC, and what is the promoter holding?

Ans. Promoters held 60.79% of NMDC in June 2026. FII held 13.59%, DII held 13.81% and the public held 11.80%.

What were NMDC's latest quarterly results?

Ans. In the June 2026 quarter, NMDC reported revenue of Rs 7,143 crore (up 1.5% year on year) and net profit of Rs 2,006 crore (up 1.9%).