Nifty IT Rises Despite JPMorgan Warning of AI Disruption; Infosys, Tech Mahindra Gain, HCLTech and Wipro Lag

The Nifty IT index is rising approximately 1% on June 24, trading at 27,283.55 against a previous close of 27,012.05, as the sector attempts a technical recovery after one of its steepest five-day declines in recent history. The Nifty IT index had fallen sharply from 30,000-plus levels in mid-June, driven by Accenture’s guidance cut that rattled global IT services sentiment. Today’s Nifty IT rebound comes despite a fresh JPMorgan research note warning that AI disruption could cause long-term revenue growth deceleration across Indian IT majors, with an extreme bearish scenario implying 33-39% downside for TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech. Within the index, the performance divergence is sharp: Tech Mahindra leads all gainers at +2.9%, Infosys gains +1.7%, and TCS rises +0.95%, while HCLTech is essentially flat at +0.05% and Wipro remains the lone decliner at -0.34%.

The JPMorgan note adds a fresh dimension to the AI disruption debate around the Nifty IT sector. The brokerage outlined four scenarios for large Indian IT firms, noting that a reverse DCF analysis implies TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech are currently priced for 10-year revenue CAGRs of just 4%, 4%, and 5.6% respectively, well below the long-term average of 7-8%. Despite the warning, JPMorgan explicitly cautioned against excessive pessimism, saying it was “overly simplistic to assume that AI can automatically generate enterprise-grade software,” and describing IT services companies as the “plumbers in the tech world” whose integration and implementation role remains irreplaceable. The recovery today suggests the market is taking this nuanced view, treating the oversold conditions of the last five sessions as an opportunity. Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest notes that the performance today reflects selective buying in stocks that fell the hardest after the Accenture guidance shock, with the sector showing early signs of stabilisation at the 27,000 support zone.

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Nifty IT Stocks: Performance Today vs June 23 Close

Stock	NSE Symbol	Jun 23 Close (Rs)	Today Open (Rs)	Current Price (Rs)	Change (%)	JPMorgan Rating
Tech Mahindra	TECHM	1,415.60	1,420.00	1,457.00	+2.92%	Underperform
Infosys	INFY	1,029.30	1,040.90	1,046.70	+1.69%	Buy
TCS	TCS	2,059.60	2,061.00	2,079.20	+0.95%	Hold
Mphasis	MPHASIS	2,244.60	2,242.00	2,257.40	+0.57%	N/A
Coforge	COFORGE	1,481.20	1,478.10	1,488.30	+0.47%	N/A
HCLTech	HCLTECH	1,109.50	1,097.60	1,110.00	+0.05%	Buy
Persistent	PERSISTENT	4,836.50	4,847.50	4,836.00	-0.01%	N/A
Wipro	WIPRO	174.49	171.50	173.89	-0.34%	Underperform

JPMorgan’s 4 AI Scenarios for Indian IT Stocks

JPMorgan’s latest note on the Nifty IT sector outlined four distinct scenarios based on how AI disruption plays out for Indian IT companies. In the bull case, if IT revenue growth accelerates even slightly toward mid-single digits, the sector would re-rate higher from current depressed levels. The reverse DCF currently implies the market is pricing in only 4% 10-year revenue CAGR for TCS and Infosys, sharply below the historical 7-8% average, meaning any upside surprise on growth would be disproportionately positive for Nifty IT stocks. In the moderate bull scenario, growth stabilises at current levels with a gradual recovery, implying limited but positive returns from these prices. In the moderate bear case, growth stagnates at low single digits without any acceleration, suggesting further downside of 9-22% for TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech from current levels. The uber-bear case, which JPMorgan itself describes as extreme and requiring “a few quarters of 0% growth to play out,” assumes zero revenue growth to perpetuity due to AI disruption, implying a potential downside of 36% for TCS, 33% for Infosys, and 39% for HCLTech from current prices.

The brokerage simultaneously maintained Buy ratings on Infosys and HCLTech, a Hold on TCS, and Underperform ratings on Wipro and Tech Mahindra. The sector’s reaction to this note is telling: despite the uber-bear scenario headline, investors appear focused on the bull case framing, continuing to buy oversold large-cap IT stocks. Jefferies took a more direct bearish stance, warning that application services, which account for 40-70% of revenues for many Nifty IT firms, could be vulnerable to AI-led disruption, and that “there is more pain ahead for Indian IT.”

Why Tech Mahindra Leads the IT Sector Today Despite JPMorgan Underperform

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The most striking dynamic in today’s Nifty IT session is that Tech Mahindra, which carries a JPMorgan Underperform rating, is leading all IT sector gainers at +2.9%, while HCLTech, which carries a JPMorgan Buy rating, is essentially flat at +0.05%. This divergence reflects stock-specific technical dynamics rather than fundamental agreement with broker ratings. Tech Mahindra fell sharply from approximately Rs 1,524 to a low of Rs 1,344 on June 19, a peak-to-trough decline of nearly 12% in just three sessions, making it the most oversold Nifty IT stock heading into today. Technical bounces tend to be proportional to the preceding sell-off, which explains why Tech Mahindra is recovering the most aggressively. Additionally, Tech Mahindra’s revenue mix, which is more heavily weighted toward enterprise IT services for telecom and manufacturing clients, gives it a different AI disruption risk profile compared to TCS or Infosys, which have larger application services exposure in the 40-70% vulnerability range cited by Jefferies.

HCLTech and Wipro: Why They Are Lagging the IT Sector Recovery

Within the Nifty IT, HCLTech and Wipro are the two notable underperformers. HCLTech is trading at Rs 1,110, up just 0.05% from its June 23 close of Rs 1,109.50, despite JPMorgan’s Buy rating. HCLTech may be facing continued institutional selling linked to its specific business mix: the company has a relatively higher proportion of its revenue in products and platforms (HCLSoftware), which analysts believe could face faster disruption from AI-native alternatives. Wipro continues to lag the Nifty IT recovery with a -0.34% decline, in line with its Underperform ratings from both JPMorgan and analysts at other brokerages. Wipro has been the weakest Nifty IT stock over the broader sell-off period, falling from Rs 179.50 on June 18 to Rs 171.50 at today’s open, a decline of nearly 4.5% versus TCS and Infosys which fell closer to 2-3% over the same period. The company’s muted near-term growth outlook and limited margin expansion visibility continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

Conclusion: Nifty IT Recovery Outlook

The Nifty IT index is recovering approximately 1% on June 24, with Tech Mahindra and Infosys leading gains and HCLTech and Wipro lagging. JPMorgan’s four-scenario AI disruption framework has added a fresh layer of analysis to the IT sector debate, but the market appears to be focusing on the bull case of mid-single-digit growth acceleration, which JPMorgan itself says would re-rate the entire sector from current lows. The key level to watch for the index is 27,000 as near-term support, with a sustained close above 27,400 needed to signal a meaningful technical recovery. Track all Nifty IT stocks live on Univest. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before investing in IT sector stocks.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nifty IT index level today?

Ans. The Nifty IT index is trading at approximately 27,283.55 on June 24, 2026, up about 1% from its previous close of 27,012.05. The index opened at 27,046.40 and hit a high of 27,383.95 in today’s session. The the sector recovery follows a sharp decline driven by Accenture’s guidance cut and JPMorgan’s AI disruption warning. Track the live the sector level on the Univest Screener.

What is JPMorgan’s warning on Nifty IT stocks?

Ans. JPMorgan outlined four scenarios for large Nifty IT stocks. In the extreme bear case, if AI causes zero revenue growth to perpetuity, TCS could fall 36%, Infosys 33%, and HCLTech 39% from current levels. In a moderate bear scenario (low single-digit growth, no acceleration), downside is 9-22%. In the bull case, mid-single-digit growth acceleration would re-rate the the sector sector. However, JPMorgan maintained Buy ratings on Infosys and HCLTech, noting it is ‘overly simplistic to assume AI can replace IT services firms.’

Why is Tech Mahindra gaining the most in Nifty IT today?

Ans. Tech Mahindra is up +2.92% today, leading Nifty IT gainers, despite carrying a JPMorgan Underperform rating. The gain is driven by a technical bounce: the stock fell from approximately Rs 1,524 to a low of Rs 1,344 (June 19), a 12% decline in three sessions, making it the most oversold the sector stock. Technical bounces tend to be proportional to the preceding decline. Additionally, Tech Mahindra’s telecom and enterprise IT revenue mix gives it a different AI disruption risk profile compared to peers.

Why are HCLTech and Wipro lagging the Nifty IT recovery?

Ans. HCLTech is up just 0.05% (essentially flat) despite a JPMorgan Buy rating, possibly due to institutional concerns about its products and platforms business (HCLSoftware) facing faster AI disruption. Wipro is down 0.34%, the only Nifty IT decliner today, reflecting its weaker near-term growth outlook and JPMorgan Underperform rating. Both stocks had less severe sell-offs in the preceding sessions compared to Tech Mahindra and Infosys, reducing the scale of their technical bounce.

What are JPMorgan’s ratings on Nifty IT stocks?

Ans. JPMorgan’s current ratings on major Nifty IT stocks are: Buy on Infosys, Buy on HCLTech, Hold on TCS, Underperform on Wipro, and Underperform on Tech Mahindra. Notably, today’s market performance is inverted from JPMorgan’s ratings: Tech Mahindra (Underperform) is the top the sector gainer at +2.92%, while HCLTech (Buy) is flat. This divergence reflects technical oversold conditions rather than disagreement with the fundamental analysis.

What did Jefferies say about Nifty IT stocks?

Ans. Jefferies took a more bearish stance than JPMorgan on Nifty IT stocks, warning that application services, which account for 40-70% of revenues for many Indian IT firms, could be vulnerable to AI-led disruption. The brokerage stated ‘there is more pain ahead for Indian IT,’ citing Anthropic and Palantir’s claims about AI eroding traditional services revenues. Jefferies added that consensus growth estimates for the sector stocks may not fully reflect AI disruption risks, posing downside threats to valuations.

What is the key level for the Nifty IT index?

Ans. The key near-term support for the Nifty IT index is 27,000, which is close to yesterday’s close of 27,012. A sustained close below 27,000 would signal continued weakness. On the upside, a close above 27,400 (today’s intraday high zone) would be the first confirmation that the sector’s technical recovery has legs. Longer-term, the the sector index had been trading in the 30,000 range before the recent sharp decline driven by Accenture’s guidance cut.

Should I buy Nifty IT stocks now?

Ans. Whether to buy Nifty IT stocks depends on your view of the AI disruption timeline. JPMorgan’s bull case, where even slight growth acceleration from 4% to mid-single digits would re-rate the sector significantly, suggests value at current levels. However, Jefferies and other bears argue there is further downside risk as AI disrupts application services revenues. The most important fundamental catalyst to watch is Infosys’ Q1 FY27 results guidance, which will provide the first concrete data point on whether IT demand is recovering or deteriorating further. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before investing.