Nifty 50 Prediction for Tomorrow, 29 September 2026: Can 22,700 Hold on Monthly Expiry?

Quick Answer: The Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow, Tuesday 29 September 2026, is cautious after the index fell 360.25 points to 22,780.25 on Monday. First support sits at 22,700 with 22,500 below it, while resistance is stacked at 22,900 and 23,000. The put-call ratio of 0.62 and a 12.58 percent jump in India VIX show traders leaning defensive. Monthly expiry means the range on Tuesday can be wider than usual.

The Nifty 50 began Monday close to 23,065, failed to hold the 23,000 mark and ended just above its day low of 22,762.20. It has now fallen for seven straight weeks, and Monday's move took it near six-month lows.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, is watching how the index behaves around 22,800, the at-the-money strike where both calls and puts are concentrated. Kunal Singla, Associate Director, is tracking crude oil and foreign flows as the swing factors for an expiry-day bounce or breakdown.

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Nifty 50 Closing Snapshot

Metric	Monday, 28 September 2026
Open	23,064.90
High	23,080.25
Low	22,762.20
Close	22,780.25
Previous close	23,140.50
Change	Down 360.25 points, or 1.56 percent
India VIX	13.69, up 12.58 percent

The index was never able to build on its opening levels and drifted lower through the day without a meaningful recovery. Nifty Next 50 fell 2.05 percent and Nifty 500 lost 1.64 percent, so the selling was not limited to frontline names.

Nifty 50 Levels and Options Data for Tomorrow

Trend	Support Levels	Resistance Levels
Weak, Watching for a Bounce	22,700 and 22,500	22,900 and 23,000

The support at 22,700 sits just 80 points below Monday's close, so it is the first level the index will test if the weakness continues. The 22,500 strike carries the second-largest put open interest, which makes it the next zone where buyers may step in.

On the upside, the 22,900 strike and the 23,000 strike hold heavy call open interest, with 23,000 the largest of all. A close above 23,000 would suggest call writers are giving ground, which is a stronger signal than an intraday spike.

Expiry-Day Playbook for the Nifty 50 Prediction for Tomorrow

• Let the first fifteen minutes settle before acting; GIFT Nifty was near 23,110 before Monday's open and the session still gapped and slid, so early signals can mislead.
• Treat 22,700 as the line to defend for long positions and 22,900 as the first hurdle for a bounce.
• Watch India VIX through the day; a further rise from 13.69 would favour caution and smaller sizes.
• Avoid holding large option positions into the final hour unless you are comfortable with expiry-day price gaps.

Check live Nifty 50, Sensex and Bank Nifty levels on the Univest Screener

Nifty 50 Heavyweights to Watch Tomorrow

Univest's desk is flagging four index heavyweights whose moves can steer the benchmark on expiry day. These are not buy calls, and each should be checked against your own risk plan before acting.

Stock	Monday's Move	What to Watch Tomorrow
Reliance Industries	Fell 2.32 percent to Rs 1,197.60 on 1.36 crore shares traded	Kunal Singla suggests tracking it against Brent crude, since the stock has been sensitive to oil-driven moves.
HDFC Bank	Fell 2.25 percent to Rs 719.05, the heaviest volumes among the names tracked	The largest banking weight in the index; watch whether it steadies near Monday's low of Rs 718.10.
Infosys	Rose 0.30 percent to Rs 1,003.20 against a falling market	Ankit Jaiswal flags it as the day's relative-strength name; watch if it holds above Rs 1,000.
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries	Eased 0.77 percent to Rs 1,838.00	A steadier pharma heavyweight that could cushion the index if selling resumes.

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Global and Macro Triggers for Tuesday

• Brent crude is trading around 105 to 106 dollars after the US rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• The US 10-year yield has hovered above 5 percent, which tends to draw money away from emerging-market equities.
• The rupee is near 95.8 per dollar, and foreign investors had sold about Rs 17,131 crore of Indian equities in September before Monday.
• Wall Street ended Friday higher, but US futures weakened after the Hormuz headline.

Nifty 50 Scenarios for Tomorrow

• Base case: A choppy range between 22,700 and 22,900, with expiry positioning dominating price action.
• Relief case: A move above 22,900 that holds into the afternoon would open a test of 23,000 and squeeze near-term call writers.
• Weak case: A break below 22,700 on rising volumes would put 22,500 in play and could push the VIX higher.

Risks to the Nifty 50 Outlook

• A fresh spike in crude oil could push the index through first support before the session is an hour old.
• Expiry-day short covering can produce a fast rally that invalidates the cautious setup.
• Continued foreign selling could keep large caps under pressure regardless of technical levels.
• A sudden de-escalation headline in West Asia could lift the market sharply against this cautious view.

Conclusion

This Nifty 50 view stays cautious after a 1.56 percent fall to 22,780.25, with first support at 22,700 and first resistance at 22,900. The put-call ratio of 0.62, a higher VIX and monthly expiry all argue for tight risk control rather than aggressive positioning. Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Infosys and Sun Pharma are the heavyweights on Univest's watchlist. These are observations, not guarantees, and each trader should size positions to their own risk appetite.

Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information and may not be accurate. Please verify all data independently before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Nifty 50 prediction for tomorrow, 29 September 2026?

Ans. The Nifty 50 outlook for Tuesday is cautious. The index closed at 22,780.25, down 1.56 percent, with support at 22,700 and 22,500 and resistance at 22,900 and 23,000 on monthly expiry day.

What does the Nifty put-call ratio of 0.62 indicate?

Ans. A put-call ratio below 1 means call open interest outweighs put open interest, which points to a cautious sentiment and a bias toward call writing at higher strikes.

Which Nifty strikes hold the most open interest for expiry?

Ans. The 23,000 strike carries the heaviest call open interest, while the largest put open interest sits at 22,800, followed by 22,500 and 22,700.

Why is Tuesday's Nifty session important?

Ans. Tuesday, 29 September 2026 is the monthly expiry for Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty derivatives, so positions are being closed or rolled and intraday swings can be wider than usual.

How high is India VIX after Monday's fall?

Ans. India VIX closed at 13.69 on Monday, up 12.58 percent from its previous close of 12.16.

Which Nifty heavyweights are flagged to watch tomorrow?

Ans. Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Infosys and Sun Pharma are flagged for monitoring. These are not buy calls and should be checked against your own risk plan.