Gold ETF Falls 2%, Silver ETF Down Up to 4.25%: Bullion Slides as Gold Drops Below $4,000 and Silver Hits $59

Gold ETF and Silver ETF investors are facing sharp losses today as bullion prices slide across the board , gold falling below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since recently25, and silver tumbling approximately 5% to approximately $59 per ounce, its lowest since December. In Indian ETF markets, Gold ETF units are down approximately 2% while Silver ETF products are underperforming significantly, falling approximately 4-4.25%. Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest explains the three-pronged macro trigger driving this correction and why Silver ETF has fallen twice as sharply as Gold ETF today.

The primary trigger for the Gold ETF and Silver ETF decline is a sharp repricing of US Federal Reserve rate expectations. Markets now assign approximately 68% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, up dramatically from approximately 29% just one week ago. This shift has two direct negative effects on bullion: first, higher rate expectations strengthen the US dollar, and gold and silver are priced in dollars globally , a stronger dollar makes bullion more expensive for non-dollar buyers, reducing demand; second, higher real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver. When a US Treasury bond pays 4%+ in real terms, the zero-yield Gold ETF faces structural competition for capital. The hawkish Fed repricing has been amplified by Brent crude’s collapse to approximately $73.74 , ironically, the very easing of the Iran war supply shock that was intended to reduce inflation is instead prompting markets to conclude that the inflation emergency may be over, enabling the Fed to remain restrictive or even tighten further.

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Gold ETF and Silver ETF: Performance Dashboard

ETF	Symbol	LTP	Change	Prev Close	Asset
Nippon India Gold BeES	GOLDBEES	Rs 115.15	-2.05%	Rs 117.56	Gold ETF , largest by AUM
HDFC Gold ETF	HDFCGOLD	Rs 118.92	-2.05%	Rs 121.41	Gold ETF
SBI Gold ETF	SETFGOLD	Rs 118.70	-2.10%	Rs 121.24	Gold ETF
Nippon Silver ETF	SILVERBEES	Rs 204.50	-4.15%	Rs 213.35	Silver ETF
HDFC Silver ETF	HDFCSILVER	Rs 204.15	-4.25%	Rs 213.21	Silver ETF , largest drop
ICICI Pru Silver ETF	SILVERIETF	Rs 213.35	-4.10%	Rs 222.46	Silver ETF
SBI Silver ETF	SBISILVER	Rs 209.69	-4.02%	Rs 218.47	Silver ETF
ABSL Silver ETF	SILVER	Rs 213.56	-4.07%	Rs 222.62	Silver ETF

Why Silver ETF Is Underperforming Gold ETF Today

Compare Gold ETF and Silver ETF on Univest Screener

The divergence between Gold ETF (down approximately 2%) and Silver ETF (down approximately 4-4.25%) today reflects silver’s dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. Unlike gold, which is primarily a monetary and store-of-value asset, silver derives approximately 55-60% of its demand from industrial applications including solar panels, electric vehicle components, electronics, and photography. The sharp decline in technology stocks in global markets recently has led some investors to liquidate Silver ETF positions to cover losses elsewhere in their portfolios , a margin-call driven selling dynamic. Additionally, silver’s smaller and less liquid market makes it more volatile than gold in both directions: when sentiment turns negative, Silver ETF falls faster and further than Gold ETF. The gold-to-silver ratio has widened to approximately 64, meaning silver has become relatively cheaper compared to gold, but in a risk-off environment this mean-reversion trade can take time to play out.

For context on the magnitude of gold’s current correction: gold peaked at approximately $5,589 per ounce at its January all-time high , a record reached before the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict. The subsequent pullback has been driven by the Iran war’s inflation shock, which eliminated all expected Fed rate cuts and shifted market pricing toward potential hikes. Gold is now approximately 20% below that January peak at approximately $3,980-4,000 per ounce, down approximately 5% year-to-date. Silver’s fall has been even steeper, collapsing from its January peak of approximately $116 per ounce to approximately $59 currently , a drawdown of approximately 49% from peak. However, analysts at major firms note that structural demand for both metals remains intact: central banks have been net gold buyers for four consecutive years, silver deficit conditions persist for the sixth consecutive year, and any sustained crude decline reducing inflation could eventually allow the Fed to return to a neutral or easing stance, which would be a major catalyst for Gold ETF and Silver ETF recovery.

Conclusion: Gold ETF and Silver ETF Today

Gold ETF is down approximately 2% today (GOLDBEES Rs 115.15, HDFCGOLD Rs 118.92, SETFGOLD Rs 118.70) while Silver ETF is falling approximately 4-4.25% (SILVERBEES Rs 204.50, HDFCSILVER Rs 204.15) as gold falls below $4,000 and silver hits $59 , driven by stronger USD and a jump in Fed rate hike probability to 68% from 29% a week ago. Silver ETF is underperforming Gold ETF due to industrial demand concerns and portfolio deleveraging. Compare Gold ETF and Silver ETF performance on Univest. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Gold ETF price falling today?

Ans. Gold ETF prices are falling today because the spot gold price has fallen below $4,000 per ounce , its lowest since recently25. The primary driver is a sharp rise in US Federal Reserve rate hike expectations: markets now assign approximately 68% probability to a Fed rate hike in September, up from 29% one week ago. Higher rate expectations strengthen the US dollar and increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, reducing demand for Gold ETF. GOLDBEES is down 2.05% to Rs 115.15, HDFCGOLD is down 2.05% to Rs 118.92.

Why is Silver ETF falling more than Gold ETF?

Ans. Silver ETF is falling approximately 4-4.25% today compared to Gold ETF’s 2% decline because silver has a dual nature as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. The recent selloff in technology stocks has led investors to liquidate Silver ETF positions to cover portfolio losses , a margin-call driven dynamic. Silver’s smaller market is also more volatile. Additionally, silver’s industrial demand (solar, EVs, electronics) is more sensitive to growth concerns than gold’s purely monetary demand. The gold-to-silver ratio has widened to approximately 64, signalling silver’s relative weakness.

What are the best Gold ETFs to buy in India?

Ans. The major Gold ETFs available in India include Nippon India ETF Gold BeES (GOLDBEES , largest by AUM), HDFC Gold ETF (HDFCGOLD), SBI Gold ETF (SETFGOLD), and several others tracking physical gold prices. All domestic Gold ETFs track the same underlying asset (physical gold price in rupees), so the primary differentiation factors are AUM (larger = more liquid), tracking error, and expense ratio. GOLDBEES at Rs 115.15 is the most liquid Gold ETF by trading volume. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before investing.

What is the current gold price in India?

Ans. Gold price in India today reflects the international spot price (approximately $3,980-4,000 per ounce) converted to rupees. Gold ETFs like GOLDBEES (Rs 115.15) and HDFCGOLD (Rs 118.92) track physical gold prices. The international gold price is near its lowest level since recently25, approximately 20% below the January all-time high of approximately $5,589 per ounce, driven by a stronger US dollar and rising Fed rate hike expectations.

What is the current silver price and why has it fallen so much?

Ans. Silver prices have fallen to approximately $59 per ounce today, down approximately 5%, the lowest since recently25. Silver has fallen approximately 49% from its January all-time high of approximately $116 per ounce. The key drivers of the fall are: the Iran war oil price shock that elevated inflation and eliminated Fed rate cut expectations, stronger US dollar, rising real yields, portfolio deleveraging in technology stocks, and reduced industrial demand expectations. Silver ETFs like SILVERBEES (Rs 204.50, -4.15%) and HDFCSILVER (Rs 204.15, -4.25%) have tracked this decline.

Should I buy Gold ETF or Silver ETF on the dip today?

Ans. Whether to buy Gold ETF or Silver ETF on a correction depends on your investment thesis and risk tolerance. Gold is approximately 20% below its January peak and has intact structural demand from central bank buying and USD debasement concerns. Silver is approximately 49% below its January peak and has six consecutive years of supply deficits supporting a long-term structural case. However, both metals face near-term headwinds from a more hawkish Fed. Silver ETF carries higher volatility. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before investing. This is not investment advice.

What drives the gold-to-silver ratio?

Ans. The gold-to-silver ratio (currently approximately 64) represents how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. A rising ratio means silver is underperforming gold. The ratio rises when: (1) industrial demand concerns weigh on silver’s non-monetary component; (2) risk-off sentiment leads to greater relative selling in the more volatile silver; (3) margin calls force silver liquidations. A falling ratio (silver outperforming gold) typically occurs when the economy is recovering, industrial demand is strong, and monetary easing is in view. Gold ETF and Silver ETF returns in India directly reflect this ratio dynamic.

What is the difference between Gold ETF and Gold Sovereign Bond?

Ans. Gold ETF (like GOLDBEES, HDFCGOLD) and Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) both track gold prices but differ significantly. Gold ETFs are traded on stock exchanges like shares, have no lock-in, and carry a small expense ratio. SGBs are government bonds with 8-year tenure (5-year exit), offer a 2.5% annual interest coupon in addition to gold price appreciation, have no capital gains tax if held to maturity, but are illiquid in secondary markets. SGBs are generally better for long-term investors while Gold ETFs suit those needing liquidity.