Commodity Market Prediction for Monday, 5 October 2026

Nifty Commodities index at 9,130.25, down 1.93%. Crude oil jumped 2.11% while gold, silver, natural gas, copper and zinc all eased. Markets shut Friday for Gandhi Jayanti, plus the weekend.

Updated: 1 Oct 2026 • 3:50 pm

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Quick Answer

The commodity market prediction for Monday, 5 October 2026, is mixed. Crude oil jumped on Thursday while gold, silver, natural gas, copper and zinc all eased, even as India VIX spiked 7.64 percent to 14.52, its sharpest single-day jump since late September, as broad-based selling hit most sectors, with Nifty Auto and Nifty Metal the worst hit even as Nifty IT bucked the trend entirely and rallied. Since Indian markets are shut Friday for Gandhi Jayanti and through the weekend, Thursday's close remains the last available data until Monday.

Thursday, 1 October 2026, split the commodity complex. The Nifty Commodities index, a broad gauge of commodity-linked equities, fell 1.93 percent to 9,130.25, even as crude oil jumped 2.11 percent. Gold, silver, natural gas, copper and zinc all eased the same session.

Univest's desk will revisit this commodity market prediction for monday once Monday's opening trade confirms direction.

Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla at Univest note that the outlook for Monday hinges on whether crude oil's rally extends once trading resumes, since that same pressure also weighed on broader equity markets through higher input costs and inflation concerns on Thursday.

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Table of Contents

Commodity Snapshot for Monday

Commodity	Price	Change
Crude Oil (bbl)	Rs 8,918	+2.11%
Gold (10g)	Rs 149,540	+0.34%
Silver (kg)	Rs 224,568	+0.39%
Natural Gas (mmBtu)	Rs 285.90	-1.52%
Copper (kg)	Rs 1,393.90	-0.55%
Zinc (kg)	Rs 411.80	-1.12%

Key Drivers for the Commodity Market Monday

Crude oil jumped 2.11 percent on MCX, its sharpest single-day rise in over a week, even as broader Indian equities sold off.
India VIX spiked 7.64 percent to 14.52, its sharpest single-day jump since late September, as broad-based selling hit most sectors, with Nifty Auto and Nifty Metal the worst hit even as Nifty IT bucked the trend entirely and rallied.
Industrial metals eased alongside the broader risk-off mood, with Nifty Metal down 2.35 percent, one of Thursday's worst-performing sectors.

Traders relying on this commodity market prediction for monday should still size positions to their own risk appetite.

Stocks to Watch Alongside the Commodity Market

Reliance Industries is the most direct large-cap proxy for crude oil swings and fell 1.63 percent on Thursday even as crude itself rallied, since higher input costs for refining outweighed any upstream benefit. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, an upstream producer, also fell 1.52 percent despite the firmer crude price, a divergence worth watching once trading resumes Monday.

Why This Is Written for Monday

Indian markets are closed Friday, 2 October 2026, for Gandhi Jayanti, as well as Saturday and Sunday, so Thursday's closing prices remain the last available data until trading resumes on Monday, 5 October 2026. Treat this commodity market prediction for monday as a briefing to prepare for that session, not a live call that updates over the long weekend.

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Risks to the Commodity Market Prediction for Monday

Any further escalation in the factors behind Thursday's crude oil rally could push prices higher still over the long weekend.
Unexpected US Federal Reserve commentary could move the US Dollar Index and the entire commodity complex.
Thin volumes early Monday can exaggerate short-term price swings.

As with any commodity market prediction for monday, the opening minutes of Monday's trade will confirm or challenge the levels discussed here.

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Conclusion

The commodity market prediction for Monday stays mixed, with crude oil the clear outlier on the upside while gold, silver, natural gas, copper and zinc all eased. Whether that crude strength extends is the key variable heading into 5 October 2026.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities are subject to market risk. Read all related documents carefully before investing. The information provided here is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest is a SEBI-registered investment adviser (Registration No. INH000013776). Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the commodity market prediction for Monday, 5 October 2026?

Ans. The commodity market prediction for Monday is mixed, with crude oil up 2.11 percent while gold, silver, natural gas, copper and zinc all eased, based on Thursday's MCX closing prices.

This commodity market prediction for monday is built from Thursday's verified market data, since markets are shut through the long weekend.

Why is this a commodity market prediction for Monday instead of tomorrow?

Ans. Because Indian markets are closed Friday, 2 October 2026, for Gandhi Jayanti, as well as Saturday and Sunday, so the next trading session is Monday, 5 October 2026.

Why did crude oil rally on Thursday?

Ans. Crude oil rallied on Thursday because crude oil jumped 2.11 percent on MCX, its sharpest single-day rise in over a week, even as broader Indian equities sold off.

How does the commodity market prediction for Monday affect stock markets?

Ans. Rising crude oil raises India's import bill and inflation risk, and Thursday's rally coincided with a sharp sell-off across most of the Indian equity market.

What should traders watch in Monday's commodity market session?

Ans. Traders should watch whether crude oil's rally extends, along with India VIX and any weekend developments, for Monday's commodity market session.