Commodity Market Prediction for Monday | MCX Outlook 29 June 2026

The commodity market prediction for Monday, 29 June 2026, follows a partial MCX recovery on 25 June 2026: gold (+0.49%), silver (+2.24%), copper (+1.69%), natural gas (+2.44%), and zinc (+0.68%) all bounced while crude oil continued falling (-1.11%). The Nifty 50 closed at 24,056.00 (+0.14%) and the Sensex settled its weekly options at 77,100.47 above 77,000 max pain. VIX fell to 13.05. Two events dominate the commodity market prediction for Monday: the Iran-US weekend outcome from Switzerland talks and Monday 29 June 2026 being the BSE Sensex monthly options expiry day plus June month-end.

Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla of Univest present the commodity market prediction for Monday with focus on the weekend binary event (Iran-US talks) and Monday’s unique combination of monthly expiry and month-end flows.

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Commodity Market Prediction for Monday: MCX Recap 25 June 2026

Commodity	MCX Close (25 Jun)	Change	S1 (29 Jun)	R1 (29 Jun)
Gold (Aug Ten Fut)	Rs 1,44,024/10g	++0.49%	Rs 1,43,000	Rs 1,45,000
Silver (Jul Fut)	Rs 2,17,850/kg	++2.24%	Rs 2,15,000	Rs 2,20,000
Crude Oil (Jul Fut)	Rs 6,595/bbl	-1.11%	Rs 6,540	Rs 6,669
Copper (Jul Fut)	Rs 1,263.10/kg	++1.69%	Rs 1,250	Rs 1,280
Natural Gas (Jul Fut)	Rs 315.50/MMBtu	++2.44%	Rs 308	Rs 320
Zinc (Jul Fut)	Rs 353.30/kg	++0.68%	Rs 349	Rs 358

Commodity Market Prediction for Monday: Key Themes

• Iran-US Weekend Binary Event: The commodity market prediction for Monday is dominated by whether Iran-US Switzerland talks produce a confirmed deal or breakdown over the weekend. A deal would push crude toward Rs 6,450 and pressure gold below Rs 1,41,888 in the commodity market prediction for Monday. A breakdown would reverse all recent trends: crude above Rs 6,851, gold above Rs 1,46,600.
• Precious Metals Bounce Continuation: The commodity market prediction for Monday for gold (++0.49% today) and silver (++2.24% today) is cautiously positive if Iran deal remains unresolved over the weekend. Support at Rs 1,43,000 (gold) and Rs 2,15,000 (silver) in the commodity market prediction for Monday.
• Crude Remains Under Pressure: The commodity market prediction for Monday for crude (-1.11% today to Rs 6,595) is the most directionally bearish commodity heading into Monday. Support at Rs 6,540 and key resistance at Rs 6,669 in the commodity market prediction for Monday.
• Sensex Monthly Expiry Monday: The commodity market prediction for Monday is influenced by Monday’s Sensex monthly expiry (2:00 to 3:30 PM) via rupee and risk sentiment channels. Reduce MCX positions before 2:00 PM on Monday.

Global Cues for Commodity Market Prediction for Monday

• Iran-US Talks Weekend: The most important input for the commodity market prediction for Monday. Monitor Saturday and Sunday for Switzerland talk developments before placing any MCX positions for Monday.
• Dollar Index (DXY): DXY weekend direction affects all rupee-denominated MCX prices in the commodity market prediction for Monday. A softer dollar supports gold, silver, and copper; a stronger dollar creates downside risk across the commodity market prediction for Monday.
• US Friday Close: US Friday market performance will be incorporated into the commodity market prediction for Monday via GIFT Nifty and MCX opening gap on Monday morning.

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Commodity Market Prediction for Monday: Strategy

1. Gold and Silver: The commodity market prediction for Monday favours longs near Rs 1,43,000 (gold) and Rs 2,15,000 (silver) if Iran deal remains unconfirmed over the weekend. A deal confirmation reverses this commodity market prediction for Monday.
2. Crude Oil: The commodity market prediction for Monday for crude remains bearish below Rs 6,669 resistance. Short near Rs 6,595 targeting Rs 6,540 on continued Iran deal optimism. A deal collapse reverses sharply in the commodity market prediction for Monday.
3. Base Metals: The commodity market prediction for Monday for copper and zinc is cautiously positive above Rs 1,250 and Rs 349 respectively. LME direction over the weekend will confirm the commodity market prediction for Monday direction.
4. Sensex Expiry Monday: Avoid new MCX positions between 2:00 PM and 3:30 PM on Monday. Sensex monthly expiry volatility can spike MCX spreads unexpectedly in the commodity market prediction for Monday afternoon session.

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Risks to Commodity Market Prediction for Monday

• Iran-US Deal Confirmation: Confirms crude bearish trend and reverses gold/silver bounce in the commodity market prediction for Monday sharply.
• Iran-US Collapse: Spikes crude above Rs 6,851, reverses entire downtrend in the commodity market prediction for Monday for energy and safe-haven assets.
• Sensex Monthly Expiry Volatility: Monday Sensex expiry between 2:00 and 3:30 PM can widen MCX spreads unexpectedly in the commodity market prediction for Monday afternoon session.

Stocks to Watch on Monday, 29 June 2026

Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla of Univest flag three stocks for Monday 29 June 2026. 29 June 2026 is the BSE Sensex monthly options expiry day and June month-end, adding specific volatility to Sensex heavyweights in the 2:00 to 3:30 PM expiry window.

Stock	CMP (25 June 2026)	Entry Zone	Target	Stop Loss
ICICI Bank	Rs 1,387.50	Rs 1,382 to Rs 1,392	Rs 1,412 to Rs 1,420	Rs 1,368
HDFC Bank	Rs 796.30	Rs 793 to Rs 799	Rs 812 to Rs 818	Rs 783
Reliance Industries	Rs 1,318.10	Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,320	Rs 1,338 to Rs 1,345	Rs 1,300

ICICI Bank at Rs 1,387.50 (+1.01% on 25 June 2026) leads momentum into Monday. Jaiswal flags entry Rs 1,382 to Rs 1,392 targeting Rs 1,412. As a top Sensex constituent, ICICI Bank will see direct Sensex monthly expiry positioning on Monday. HDFC Bank at Rs 796.30 is the largest Sensex weight and the primary Sensex monthly expiry anchor for Monday. Singla flags entry Rs 793 to Rs 799, target Rs 812, stop Rs 783. Reliance Industries at Rs 1,318.10 benefits from continued crude weakness reducing downstream costs. Entry Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,320, target Rs 1,338, stop Rs 1,300.

Conclusion

The commodity market prediction for Monday on 29 June 2026 is shaped by the Iran-US weekend binary event and Monday’s Sensex monthly expiry. Gold (Rs 1,44,024, ++0.49%) and silver (Rs 2,17,850, ++2.24%) bounce supports a cautiously bullish commodity Monday Monday view for precious metals if Iran deal remains unconfirmed. Crude (Rs 6,595, -1.11%) remains the most directionally bearish. Check Iran-US news Saturday-Sunday and COMEX/NYMEX before Monday 9:00 AM for the commodity Monday Monday view opening inputs.

FAQs

What is the commodity Monday Monday view, 29 June 2026?

Ans. Mixed: Gold Rs 1,44,024 (++0.49%), Silver Rs 2,17,850 (++2.24%), Nat Gas Rs 315.50 (++2.44%), Copper Rs 1,263.10 (++1.69%), Crude Rs 6,595 (-1.11%), Zinc Rs 353.30 (++0.68%). Iran-US weekend outcome is the primary swing factor for the commodity Monday Monday view.

How does Sensex monthly expiry affect commodity Monday Monday view?

Ans. Monday Sensex monthly expiry creates equity volatility 2:00 to 3:30 PM affecting rupee and risk sentiment, which amplifies MCX afternoon swings in the commodity Monday Monday view. Avoid new MCX positions during the Sensex monthly expiry window.

What is the gold commodity Monday Monday view?

Ans. Gold at Rs 1,44,024/10g (++0.49%) today. commodity Monday Monday view for gold: cautiously bullish above Rs 1,43,000 if Iran deal unconfirmed over weekend. A confirmed deal gaps gold below Rs 1,41,888 in the commodity Monday Monday view.

What is the crude commodity Monday Monday view?

Ans. Crude at Rs 6,595/bbl (-1.11%). commodity Monday Monday view for crude: bearish below Rs 6,669 resistance. A confirmed Iran deal targets Rs 6,450; a deal collapse spikes crude above Rs 6,851 in the commodity Monday Monday view.

What stocks with commodity Monday Monday view?

Ans. ICICI Bank (entry Rs 1,382 to Rs 1,392, target Rs 1,412), HDFC Bank (Sensex monthly expiry anchor, entry Rs 793 to Rs 799, target Rs 812), and Reliance Industries (entry Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,320, target Rs 1,338) are Monday’s equity picks alongside the commodity Monday Monday view.