Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow, 11 August 2026: MCX Crude Breaks Above Rs 7,500 on Iran Deal Stall as Energy Complex Sees Broad Monday Surge
- August 10, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: News
MCX Crude Mon: Rs 7,520/bbl (+1.29%). Range Rs 7,412-7,560. Above Rs 7,500. Iran deal stalled. Gas +3.33%. Gold +0.51%. VIX 12.19.
The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow for Tuesday 11 August 2026 is built on Monday’s confirmed market close. Nifty 50 settled at 24,583.80 (+0.05%), Sensex at 78,542.44 (+0.06%) and Bank Nifty at 57,686.95 (-0.10%). The session’s defining story: Bajaj Finance recovered 2.24% to Rs 1,102.20 (resolving Friday’s NBFC fear), SBI fell 2.39% on post-Q1 result profit booking and ICICI Bank bounced 0.76% confirming the Day 3 PSU-private rotation reversal. On the commodity side, MCX Crude surged 1.29% to Rs 7,520 and MCX Natural Gas jumped 3.33% to Rs 264.10, signalling Iran deal talks stalled. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, present the complete crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
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Today’s Confirmed Data for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
| Indicator | Today’s Close (Mon 10 Aug) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,583.80 | +0.05% (H: 24,620.55 / L: 24,511.30) |
| Sensex | 78,542.44 | +0.06% (H: 78,672.08 / L: 78,305.94) |
| Bank Nifty | 57,686.95 | -0.10% (H: 58,012.60 / L: 57,527.75) |
| Nifty IT | 31,631.45 | +0.27%; Infosys +0.67%, TCS -1.10% |
| Nifty Auto | 29,620.05 | -0.09%; crude +1.29% is input cost headwind |
| Nifty Private Bank | 27,534.30 | +0.52%; ICICI Bank +0.76% Day 3 reversal |
| Nifty PSU Bank | 8,639.80 | -1.67%; SBI -2.39% post-Q1 booking |
| Nifty Metal | 13,226.70 | +0.28%; Hindustan Zinc positive |
| Bajaj Finance | Rs 1,102.20 (+2.24%) | Recovered from Friday crash; NBFC fear resolved |
| MCX Crude Oil (Aug) | Rs 7,520/bbl (+1.29%) | Iran deal stalled; biggest commodity move today |
| MCX Natural Gas (Aug) | Rs 264.10/MMBTU (+3.33%) | Biggest single-day surge this week; supply tightness |
| MCX Gold (10g) | Rs 1,51,310/10g (+0.51%) | Second positive session; range Rs 1,50,001-1,51,999 |
| MCX Silver (Mini Aug) | Rs 2,34,933/kg (+0.96%) | Range Rs 2,32,299-2,36,300; precious metals bull intact |
| MCX Copper (Aug) | Rs 1,375.70/kg (+0.75%) | Range Rs 1,365.75-1,380.50; industrial demand positive |
| MCX Zinc (Aug) | Rs 392.15/kg (+0.78%) | Range Rs 388.20-393.80; supply deficit intact |
| India VIX | 12.19 (+0.25%) | Stable; range 10.82-12.92; no panic in market |
Energy Surge: The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow’s Key Variable for Tomorrow
Monday’s biggest market-moving development was not in equities but in energy commodities. MCX Crude Oil surged 1.29% to Rs 7,520 and MCX Natural Gas jumped 3.33% to Rs 264.10, both confirming that Iran-US deal negotiations stalled over the weekend. Ankit Jaiswal notes that this energy surge has direct sector implications for tomorrow: it is a headwind for Auto, FMCG and Cement (higher input costs) and a tailwind for ONGC and the broader energy sector. for tomorrow, monitoring Brent crude direction Tuesday morning is as important as watching domestic banking recovery.
Kunal Singla observes that Natural Gas at Rs 264.10 is the highest level in over two months, reversing all of the Iran-deal-hope-driven decline from Rs 280+ levels in June. for tomorrow, if crude and gas continue higher Tuesday, defensive sectors (IT, healthcare, FMCG) would outperform cyclicals (auto, cement) in the prediction for tomorrow session.
Key Factors for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
- MCX Crude Oil breaking above Rs 7,500 on Monday for the first time since the Iran deal talks began is tomorrow’s most significant technical development. Rs 7,500 was the level where Auto, FMCG and Cement input cost improvement was fully priced. for tomorrow, crude sustaining above Rs 7,500 on Tuesday means these sectors face renewed input cost pressure.
- MCX Natural Gas surging 3.33% alongside crude’s 1.29% gain confirms the energy complex is moving on a unified geopolitical signal: Iran deal talks stalled. For the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow, when crude and gas move together in the same direction with this magnitude, the signal has multi-session duration.
- Nifty Auto fell 0.09% on Monday despite the broader market being flat (+0.05%), reflecting the early market reaction to crude’s rise. For the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow, if crude sustains above Rs 7,480-7,500 on Tuesday, Nifty Auto faces continued input cost headwinds and may underperform.
- BPCL falling 0.83% (from Friday’s data) and the energy complex surging on Monday creates an important crude oil price prediction for tomorrow positioning signal: crude rising from Iran deal stall is bad for BPCL’s refining margins (higher crude feedstock) and good for ONGC’s realization. Watch this ONGC-BPCL divergence for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow direction.
Technical Levels for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
| Level | Zone |
|---|---|
| Key Support | Rs 7,420-7,470 |
| Secondary Support | Rs 7,280-7,350 |
| Immediate Resistance | Rs 7,560-7,620 |
| Key Resistance | Rs 7,700-7,800 |
Stocks to Watch for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
ONGC: CMP Rs 242 est.. Ankit Jaiswal flags entry Rs 238-241, target Rs 252, SL Rs 230. ONGC’s upstream realization directly benefits from MCX Crude at Rs 7,520. This is tomorrow’s primary equity beneficiary from the energy surge.
Reliance Industries: CMP Rs 1,327.30 (-0.56% Mon). Kunal Singla flags entry Rs 1,318-1,325, target Rs 1,355, SL Rs 1,295. Reliance is balanced in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow: upstream KG-D6 and oil-to-chemicals benefit from higher crude while Jio and Retail are crude-neutral, making Reliance the diversified crude expression.
BPCL: CMP Rs 321 est.. Ankit Jaiswal flags entry Monitor only, target Watch for Iran deal, SL N/A. BPCL is the inverse crude oil price prediction for tomorrow trade: Iran deal confirmed = BPCL strongly bullish on GRM expansion; no deal sustained = BPCL faces margin compression.
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Strategy for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
- Rs 7,420-7,470 is the buy-on-dip zone for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow. Ankit Jaiswal recommends this as the entry range on any Tuesday morning correction from Monday’s Rs 7,520 close.
- Rs 7,560-7,620 is the first resistance for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow. Kunal Singla recommends booking 50 percent here.
- Monitor Brent Crude pre-market for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow. Brent above USD 92/bbl overnight confirms the Iran deal stall signal is sustaining globally.
- Iran deal formally confirmed overnight = avoid longs and watch for BPCL equity to surge from refining margin expansion. This is tomorrow’s primary binary risk.
Risks to the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
- Iran deal formally announced before Tuesday open sending MCX Crude gap-down toward Rs 6,800-7,100 in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
- OPEC+ production increase decision reversing the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
- Technical profit-taking from the 1.29% Monday surge creating a crude oil price prediction for tomorrow pullback to Rs 7,420-7,470.
Conclusion
The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow for Tuesday 11 August 2026 is shaped by three resolved positives from Monday: Bajaj Finance +2.24% (NBFC fear gone), ICICI Bank +0.76% (private bank Day 3 reversal confirmed) and SBI post-Q1 booking potentially exhausted at Rs 1,071. The primary new risk is energy: crude +1.29% to Rs 7,520 and Natural Gas +3.33% to Rs 264.10 signal Iran deal stalled, creating input cost headwinds for auto and FMCG in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest identifies Rs 7,420-7,470 as the primary support and Rs 7,560-7,620 as the resistance for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow on Tuesday.
Kunal Singla of Univest recommends the three-check approach for tomorrow: Brent crude direction pre-market (key for sector rotation in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow), Bajaj Finance opening above Rs 1,100 (NBFC recovery sustaining) and ICICI Bank above Rs 1,435 (Day 4 private bank recovery continuing). VIX at 12.19 confirms stable volatility for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow on Tuesday.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Verify all data with NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) before investing. Investments are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
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FAQs on Crude Oil Price Prediction For Tomorrow, 11 August 2026
What is the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow, 11 August 2026?
Ans. The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is bullish. MCX Crude surged 1.29% to Rs 7,520 on Monday, breaking above Rs 7,500 for the first time in days as Iran deal talks stalled. Support is Rs 7,420-7,470 and resistance is Rs 7,560-7,620 in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
Why did MCX Crude surge 1.29% on Monday in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow context?
Ans. MCX Crude surged because Iran-US deal negotiations stalled over the weekend, reversing the Strait risk premium that had declined on deal hopes. Natural Gas simultaneously surged 3.33%, confirming geopolitical supply risk is the unified driver in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
What is MCX Crude support and resistance for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow?
Ans. Support is Rs 7,420-7,470 and Rs 7,280-7,350. Resistance is Rs 7,560-7,620 and Rs 7,700-7,800 in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
Which analysts prepared the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow?
Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, prepared the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow using Groww-confirmed Monday data: MCX Crude Rs 7,520 (+1.29%).
What is the Iran deal impact on the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow?
Ans. Iran deal confirmed = MCX Crude gap-down toward Rs 6,800-7,100 in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow as Strait risk premium deflates. Iran deal stalled (as appears from Monday’s data) = crude sustains above Rs 7,480 and targets Rs 7,560-7,620.
