Natural Gas Price Prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026: MCX Natural Gas at Rs 252.70 as Iran Deal Uncertainty Keeps Prices Depressed Heading Into the Weekend
- August 7, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: News
MCX Nat Gas Fri: Rs 252.70/MMBTU (-0.39%). Range: Rs 251.20-255.00. Iran deal pending. NYMEX ~$3.80. US NFP key. Gold +1.40%.
The natural gas price prediction for Monday on Monday 10 August 2026 is shaped by Friday’s session where Nifty 50 closed at 24,570.65 (down 65 points, -0.27%), Sensex fell 455 points to 78,499.17 and Bank Nifty lost 317 points to 57,746.45. The session’s defining paradox: SBI Q1 FY27 beat strongly (PAT +10.23%, NIM recovered to exactly 3 percent, GNPA at a two-decade low of 1.47 percent) but Bajaj Finance crashed 5.84 percent and ICICI Bank fell 2.5 percent, dragging the financial sector. The top performers were Nifty Auto (+1.83 percent), Nifty IT (+1.42 percent led by TCS +3.36 percent) and MCX Gold (+1.40 percent) and MCX Silver (+3.19 percent). The primary catalyst for the natural gas price prediction for Monday is the US Non-Farm Payrolls for July 2026, released at 6 PM IST today after Indian market close, which will determine Monday’s opening gap direction. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, present the complete natural gas price prediction for Monday.
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Friday’s Data Behind the natural gas price prediction for Monday
| Indicator | Friday 7 Aug Close (Groww Confirmed) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,570.65 | -65.35 pts (-0.27%) |
| Sensex | 78,499.17 | -455.59 pts (-0.58%) |
| Bank Nifty | 57,746.45 | -317.20 pts (-0.55%) |
| Nifty Auto | 29,646.95 | +1.83%; top sectoral gainer |
| Nifty IT | 31,547.70 | +1.42%; TCS +3.36%, HCL +1.62%, Infosys +0.87% |
| Nifty PSU Bank | 8,786.20 | +0.65%; SBI +1.12% on Q1 FY27 beat |
| Nifty Metal | 13,189.85 | +0.50%; Hindustan Zinc +2.20% |
| Nifty Private Bank | 27,392.35 | -1.04%; ICICI -2.50%, Axis -1.43% |
| SBI Q1 FY27 | Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12%) | PAT Rs 21,121 cr (+10.23%); NIM 3.0%; GNPA 1.47% (2-decade low). High: Rs 1,124.5 |
| Bajaj Finance | Rs 1,078 (-5.84%) | Biggest Nifty 50 loser; dragged Fin Services sector |
| MCX Gold (Aug Fut) | Rs 1,49,703/10g (+1.40%) | Strong surge; safe-haven demand |
| MCX Silver (Mini Aug) | Rs 2,34,741/kg (+3.19%) | Outperformed gold; industrial + safe-haven combined |
| MCX Crude Oil (Aug) | Rs 7,356/bbl (-0.28%) | Slight dip; Iran deal uncertainty continues |
| India VIX | 12.16 | Unchanged from previous close |
| US NFP (July 2026) | Released 6 PM IST today | Primary weekend catalyst for Monday gap direction |
SBI Q1 FY27 and Bajaj Finance: Two Opposite Forces Behind the natural gas price prediction for Monday
Friday’s session presented two contradictory catalysts for the natural gas price prediction for Monday. SBI delivered its strongest quarterly result in recent memory: PAT up 10.23 percent to Rs 21,121 crore, NIM recovered to exactly 3 percent from Q4 FY26’s 2.93 percent and GNPA fell to 1.47 percent, a two-decade low. SBI surged to Rs 1,124.5 intraday before closing at Rs 1,097.20 (+1.12 percent). Simultaneously, Bajaj Finance crashed 5.84 percent to Rs 1,078, the biggest Nifty 50 loser, dragging the financial services sector. Ankit Jaiswal notes that the natural gas price prediction for Monday is shaped by which of these two forces dominates on Monday: SBI’s confirmed earnings strength or Bajaj Finance’s Q1 result-related concerns spilling into the broader NBFC sector.
Technical Levels for the natural gas price prediction for Monday
| Level Type | Zone |
|---|---|
| Immediate Support | Rs 247-251 |
| Key Support | Rs 240-244 |
| Immediate Resistance | Rs 258-262 |
| Key Resistance | Rs 268-274 |
Kunal Singla observes that India VIX closed Friday at 12.16, unchanged from Thursday’s close. Stable VIX at 12-13 despite the broader market fall is structurally positive for the natural gas price prediction for Monday: it means option sellers are not panicking and the August monthly series maintains a defined range. The natural gas price prediction for Monday’s support at Rs 247-251 is the immediate floor heading into Monday.
US NFP: The natural gas price prediction for Monday Primary Weekend Variable
US Non-Farm Payrolls for July 2026 releases at 6 PM IST today. A healthy NFP (175,000-230,000 range) supports a Monday gap-up in this outlook as Dow Jones rises and FII risk-on flows return to India on Monday morning. A weak NFP below 130,000 raises US recession concerns and creates a Monday gap-down in this outlook. Ankit Jaiswal recommends checking GIFT Nifty at 9 AM Monday before making any natural gas price prediction for Monday position decisions.
Key Factors for the natural gas price prediction for Monday
- MCX Natural Gas slipped marginally 0.39 percent to Rs 252.70 on Friday as Iran-US deal mediators continued shuttle diplomacy without a formal agreement, maintaining pressure on natural gas risk premiums in this outlook.
- MCX Crude Oil also falling 0.28 percent to Rs 7,356 on Friday, broadly in line with natural gas, confirms that the energy complex is under modest pressure from deal-in-progress signals in this outlook.
- India’s City Gas Distribution network additions (50 lakh connections in FY26) provide structural domestic demand that creates a floor for the natural gas price prediction for Monday independent of global Strait of Hormuz dynamics.
- US NFP at 6 PM IST today has indirect impact on the natural gas price prediction for Monday through the dollar: weak NFP weakens dollar which marginally supports NYMEX Natural Gas prices in this outlook.
Stocks to Watch for the natural gas price prediction for Monday
Univest analysts flag the following stocks for educational observation in this outlook on Monday. These are not buy or sell recommendations.
IGL: CMP Rs 402 est.. Ankit Jaiswal flags entry Rs 396-400, target Rs 418, SL Rs 385. IGL distributes city gas in Delhi NCR. Stable natural gas prices and structural CGD expansion support IGL’s margins in this outlook.
Reliance Industries: CMP Rs 1,334.80 (+0.74% Fri). Kunal Singla flags entry Rs 1,320-1,330, target Rs 1,360, SL Rs 1,298. Reliance’s KG-D6 natural gas production links it to the natural gas price prediction for Monday upstream realization.
BPCL: CMP Rs 321 (-0.83% Fri). Ankit Jaiswal flags entry Rs 315-320, target Rs 335, SL Rs 306. BPCL monitors both natural gas and crude oil as part of its energy basket in this outlook.
Screen All Stocks for the natural gas price prediction for Monday on Univest
Trading Strategy for the natural gas price prediction for Monday
- Rs 247-251 is the support zone for the natural gas price prediction for Monday. Buy-on-dip entry near this level with Rs 241 stop.
- Rs 258-262 is the first resistance in this outlook. Kunal Singla recommends selling into this resistance.
- Iran deal formally announced overnight would send the natural gas price prediction for Monday sharply lower toward Rs 235-240; be alert to this gap-down risk on Monday open.
- Monitor NYMEX Natural Gas futures Sunday evening for the natural gas price prediction for Monday. NYMEX below USD 3.70 signals further MCX pressure.
Risks to the natural gas price prediction for Monday
- Iran formal deal announced before Monday open, sending MCX Natural Gas below Rs 235 in this outlook.
- US NFP weakness signalling slower economic activity reducing natural gas industrial consumption in this outlook.
- Extended monsoon reducing air conditioning and commercial energy demand domestically in this outlook.
Conclusion
The natural gas price prediction for Monday on Monday 10 August 2026 is built on Friday’s close of Rs 252.70 per MMBTU (MCX Natural Gas Aug Fut) (-Rs 1.00 (-0.39%)), from a session where Nifty Auto (+1.83 percent), Nifty IT (+1.42 percent) and MCX precious metals (Gold +1.40 percent, Silver +3.19 percent) were the week’s bright spots while Bajaj Finance (-5.84 percent) and ICICI Bank (-2.5 percent) created financial sector drag. Ankit Jaiswal of Univest identifies Rs 258-262 as the primary resistance and Rs 247-251 as the critical support for the natural gas price prediction for Monday. The US NFP at 6 PM IST today is the primary variable: monitor GIFT Nifty Sunday evening and at 9 AM Monday before positioning for the natural gas price prediction for Monday.
Kunal Singla of Univest notes that the natural gas price prediction for Monday has a dual structure for Monday: the recovery case (IT and Auto momentum continues, SBI Q1 beat sustains, NFP healthy) and the continuation decline case (Bajaj Finance concerns spread to NBFCs, private banks extend selling, weak NFP). The natural gas price prediction for Monday’s support zone at Rs 247-251 is the line between these two scenarios on Monday.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
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FAQs on Natural Gas Price Prediction For Monday, 10 August 2026
What is the natural gas price prediction for Monday, 10 August 2026?
Ans. The natural gas price prediction for Monday is neutral to slightly bearish. MCX Natural Gas closed Friday at Rs 252.70 per MMBTU, down 0.39 percent. Iran deal uncertainty keeps the range Rs 247-262 in this outlook. Support is Rs 247-251 and resistance is Rs 258-262.
Which analysts prepared the natural gas price prediction for Monday?
Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director at Univest, prepared the natural gas price prediction for Monday using Groww-confirmed MCX Natural Gas data of Rs 252.70 per MMBTU.
How does the Iran deal affect the natural gas price prediction for Monday?
Ans. A formal Iran deal announced over the weekend would send the natural gas price prediction for Monday gap-down toward Rs 235-240 as the Strait risk premium deflates. Status quo (no deal) maintains the Rs 247-262 range in this outlook.
What is MCX Natural Gas support and resistance for the natural gas price prediction for Monday?
Ans. Support is Rs 247-251 and Rs 240-244. Resistance is Rs 258-262 and Rs 268-274 in the natural gas price prediction for Monday.
What stocks are linked to the natural gas price prediction for Monday?
Ans. IGL (city gas distribution), Reliance Industries (KG-D6 upstream) and BPCL (energy basket) are the three stocks in the natural gas price prediction for Monday.
