Jefferies Sees a Strong H2 for Oberoi, Lodha, DLF and Godrej Properties

India's listed real estate developers appear headed for a much stronger second half of the fiscal year, according to a fresh note from Jefferies that flags a broad-based recovery across the sector's largest names.

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Why the Rebound Matters After a Weak Quarter

The previous quarter had seen a steep 30 percent decline in pre-sales across Jefferies' coverage universe of developers, a drop significant enough to raise questions about near-term demand momentum in premium and mid-income housing markets. The projected 10 to 15 percent growth for the September quarter would not fully reverse that decline in absolute terms, but it does signal that the underlying demand environment is stabilising rather than deteriorating further.

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What's Driving the Improvement

Jefferies analysts Abhinav Sinha and Anadi Aggarwal specifically flagged sales and launch momentum as the key drivers behind the improved outlook. New project launches tend to generate a concentrated burst of bookings in their initial months, so developers with a strong launch pipeline heading into the September quarter are better positioned to show sequential improvement, independent of any broader market-wide demand recovery.

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The Four Developers in Focus

Oberoi Realty, Macrotech Developers (Lodha), DLF, and Godrej Properties represent a mix of regional strengths across India's real estate market, from Mumbai-focused premium housing to DLF's dominant position in Gurgaon's commercial and residential markets. A shared 10 to 15 percent pre-sales growth projection across all four suggests Jefferies sees this as a genuine sector-wide trend rather than a company-specific story limited to one or two names.

What Investors Should Watch

Pre-sales figures are a leading indicator of future revenue recognition in real estate, since developers typically book revenue over a project's construction period rather than at the point of sale. A genuine pre-sales recovery this quarter would therefore likely show up in these companies' reported financials with a lag, making the actual quarterly pre-sales numbers, once reported, the key data point to confirm whether Jefferies' projection plays out as expected.

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Conclusion

Jefferies' real estate stocks outlook points to a meaningful, if partial, recovery for India's largest listed developers after a weak prior quarter, driven by renewed sales and launch activity. Investors in this space should track each company's actual pre-sales disclosures against this projection once the September quarter numbers are reported.

The information in this article is for educational purposes only and must not be treated as investment advice. Stock markets are subject to risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please verify all data independently and consult a registered investment adviser before making any investment decision. Univest Communications Private Limited, SEBI Registered Research Analyst, Registration No. INH000013776.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which real estate stocks does Jefferies expect to see strong H2 growth?

Ans. Jefferies expects Oberoi Realty, Macrotech Developers (Lodha), DLF, and Godrej Properties to deliver 10 to 15 percent pre-sales growth in the September quarter.

How much did pre-sales decline in the previous quarter?

Ans. Pre-sales across Jefferies' coverage of these developers fell 30 percent in the previous quarter.

What is driving the projected pre-sales recovery?

Ans. Jefferies analysts specifically flagged sales and new project launch momentum as the key drivers behind the improved September quarter outlook.

What are pre-sales and why do they matter for real estate stocks?

Ans. Pre-sales refer to bookings made by buyers before or during a project's construction, and they act as a leading indicator of future revenue, since developers typically recognise revenue over the construction period rather than at the point of sale.

Does a projected pre-sales recovery guarantee stock price gains?

Ans. No, pre-sales growth is one operational indicator among several; stock performance also depends on valuation, broader market conditions, and how the actual reported numbers compare with projections.

Which developer has the strongest presence in Gurgaon's real estate market?

Ans. DLF holds a dominant position in Gurgaon's commercial and residential real estate markets among the four developers covered in this Jefferies note.

Where can I track live share prices for these real estate stocks?

Ans. You can check live prices and fundamentals for Oberoi Realty, Macrotech Developers, DLF and Godrej Properties using the Univest Screener.