ONGC Share Price Target 2027: Is Rs 235 Realistic? Bull Case Points to Rs 286

Investors weighing a ONGC target price for 2027 should start with where the stock sits today. At Rs 226.94 on 12 November 2026, it is 26.2% below its 52-week high of Rs 307.50 and 3.8% above its 52-week low of Rs 218.53. That range spans 41% from low to high, so the entry point matters as much as the ONGC price forecast itself.

This article builds the ONGC share price target from reported numbers only: five years of annual results, the last five quarters, the latest shareholding pattern and current valuation ratios from company filings and exchange data. Each scenario states its assumptions, so you can trace how the base case, the bull case and the downside risk level were reached and test them against your own view.

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ONGC Stock Analysis: Company Overview and Key Stats

ONGC (NSE: ONGC) has a market capitalisation of Rs 2,95,637 crore. In FY26 it reported revenue of Rs 6,21,019 crore and net profit of Rs 49,793 crore. The table collects the figures the ONGC share price target is built on.

Metric	Value
Company	ONGC
NSE Ticker	ONGC
CMP (12 November 2026)	Rs 226.94
52-Week High	Rs 307.50
52-Week Low	Rs 218.53
Market Cap	Rs 2,95,637 crore
PE Ratio (TTM)	5.83
Industry PE	6.53
Price to Book	0.74
Return on Equity	12.35%
Debt to Equity	0.46
EPS (TTM)	Rs 40.31
Dividend Yield	3.09%
12-Month Base Target	Rs 235
Bull Case	Rs 286
Downside Risk Level (not a target)	Rs 188

Why Is ONGC Share Price Target Set at Rs 235 for 2027?

The arithmetic is short. Trailing EPS of Rs 40.31 grown for one year gives a forward EPS estimate of Rs 40.31, and multiplying it by the unchanged PE of 5.83 gives the Rs 235 base-case ONGC stock target. The bull case adds faster earnings growth and a higher multiple, while the downside risk level assumes flat earnings and a lower multiple.

Earnings Growth Behind the ONGC Target Price: Five Years of Results

ONGC grew revenue from Rs 4,98,738 crore in FY22 to Rs 6,21,019 crore in FY26, a compound annual growth rate of 5.6%. Net profit grew more slowly, from Rs 49,294 crore to Rs 49,793 crore (0.3% a year), which points to margin pressure alongside the sales growth.

Financial Year	Revenue (Rs Cr)	Net Profit (Rs Cr)	EPS (Rs)	Dividend per Share (Rs)
FY22	4,98,738.22	49,294.06	36.19	10.50
FY23	6,40,400.05	32,777.61	28.17	11.25
FY24	6,13,611.58	55,273.15	39.06	12.25
FY25	6,24,461.45	38,328.61	28.80	12.25
FY26	6,21,019.28	49,793.10	32.93	7.25

FY26 revenue growth was -0.6%, slower than the four-year average of 5.6%, and net profit moved up 29.9%. EPS fell from Rs 39.06 in FY24 to Rs 32.93 in FY26. The FY27 outlook for the ONGC price target depends on whether that EPS estimate keeps compounding.

Margins and the Latest Quarter

ONGC converted 8.0% of FY26 revenue into net profit, against 6.1% in FY25, within a five-year range of 5.1% to 9.9%. EBITDA margin was 19.0% in FY26 versus 16.4% in FY25.

In the September 2026 quarter, revenue was Rs 2,01,458 crore, up 25.0% from the same quarter a year earlier, while net profit of Rs 18,535 crore was up 46.9%. EBITDA came in at Rs 40,325 crore, up 36.1% year on year. The next quarterly result is the first test of whether the earnings assumption behind the ONGC stock target holds.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

Debt to equity stands at 0.46, and shareholders' equity grew from Rs 2,83,328 crore in FY22 to Rs 4,09,693 crore in FY26. Operating cash flow in FY26 was Rs 1,12,719 crore against capital expenditure of Rs 41,282 crore, leaving free cash flow of Rs 71,438 crore, or 24.2% of the current market capitalisation. In FY25 free cash flow was Rs 49,827 crore.

Valuation Check for the ONGC Stock Target: PE, Price to Book and ROE

At a PE of 5.83 against an industry PE of 6.53, ONGC trades at a discount to its industry. Price to book is 0.74 on a book value of Rs 318.41 per share, and return on equity is 12.35%. A PE of 5.83 equals an earnings yield of 17.2%, and the FY26 dividend of Rs 7.25 per share gives a yield of 3.09%.

Shareholding Pattern and Institutional Holding

Promoters held 58.89% of ONGC in September 2026, and promoter holding has stayed near 58.89% since September 2025. Foreign institutional investors (FII) held 8.56% and domestic institutions (DII) held 18.66%, which puts total institutional holding at 27.22%. FII holding rose from 6.98% in September 2025 to 8.56% in September 2026. Public shareholders own the remaining 13.89%. A meaningful institutional holding adds a layer of research coverage and trading depth.

ONGC Share Price Targets for the Short Term and 12 Months

Short Term ONGC Stock Target Levels: Technical Setup

At Rs 226.94 on 12 November 2026, ONGC trades below its 50-day simple moving average of Rs 230.12 and below its 200-day exponential moving average of Rs 244.56. The 14-day RSI reads 49.4, which is neutral territory, and the MACD line sits above its signal line. The nearest resistance level is Rs 230.12 (50-day simple moving average) and the nearest support is Rs 218.53 (52-week low). A sustained move above Rs 230.12 would improve the short-term setup, while a close below Rs 218.53 would shift attention to the next support.

12 Month ONGC Target Price for 2027

The 12-month target of Rs 235 means a move of 3.6% up from Rs 226.94 over the next 12 months. It would still leave the stock 23.6% below its 52-week high of Rs 307.50. The upside in the base case is thin, so the thesis here leans on the bull case and on patience. Anyone checking the ONGC share price target against their own view should focus on two inputs: the EPS estimate and the PE multiple.

How EPS Growth and PE Multiple Change the ONGC Target Price

EPS Growth	PE 4.66	PE 5.83	PE 6.70
0.0% (EPS Rs 40.31)	Rs 188	Rs 235	Rs 270
0.0% (EPS Rs 40.31)	Rs 188	Rs 235	Rs 270
6.0% (EPS Rs 42.73)	Rs 199	Rs 249	Rs 286

Each cell multiplies the forward EPS estimate by the PE shown. Reading across a row shows what a de-rating or re-rating does to the ONGC price forecast, and reading down a column shows what earnings growth is worth at a fixed multiple.

Bull Case and Downside Risk for ONGC Stock Target in 2027

Bull Case Rs 286

The bull case ONGC price target needs EPS growth of 6.0%, which lifts forward EPS to Rs 42.73, and a PE multiple that rises 15% to 6.70. That gives Rs 286, 26.0% above the current price and below the 52-week high of Rs 307.50.

Downside Risk Level Rs 188

The downside risk level is not a target. It assumes EPS stays flat at Rs 40.31 and the PE falls 20% to 4.66. That gives Rs 188, 17.2% below the current price and below the 52-week low of Rs 218.53.

Scenario	EPS Growth	PE Multiple	Price (Rs)	Change vs CMP
Bull Case	6.0%	6.70	Rs 286	+26.0%
Base Case	0.0%	5.83	Rs 235	+3.6%
Downside Risk	0.0%	4.66	Rs 188	-17.2%

Key Risks to the ONGC Target Price for 2027

Growth Slowdown Risk for the ONGC Price Target

Revenue in the September 2026 quarter was up 25.0% year on year, and FY26 revenue growth was -0.6%. If growth slows from here, the EPS estimate behind the ONGC stock target will need revising.

Liquidity and Size Risk

ONGC has a market capitalisation of Rs 2,95,637 crore. Institutional holding is 27.22%, and promoters hold 58.89%. A company of this size trades with deep liquidity, so entry and exit are rarely a problem, and the larger risk is paying too much for slow earnings growth.

Valuation and Margin Risk

Net margin was 8.0% in FY26, so a small slip in costs moves profit noticeably. At a PE of 5.83 versus an industry PE of 6.53, a de-rating toward the downside-risk PE of 4.66 would cut the price even if earnings hold.

Market and Technical Risk

Technical indicators add short-term risk: the 14-day RSI is 49.4 and the MACD sits above its signal line. A broad fall in the Nifty 50 or the Sensex can override company fundamentals for weeks at a time. Treat every ONGC share price target as a range of outcomes rather than a single point.

How to Invest in ONGC

Start with the live price and volume. Any ONGC share price target is only as current as the data behind it, and the data here is as of 12 November 2026, so refresh the Rs 226.94 price before acting on any level.

Next, review the fundamentals yourself. The Univest Screener lets you check ONGC's PE, ROE, debt and shareholding in one place.

Check ONGC fundamentals on the Univest Screener

Then compare the three ONGC target price scenarios with your own view. If you expect EPS growth below 0.0%, the base case is too optimistic for you; if you expect more, the bull case deserves weight.

Decide your position size and exit levels before you buy. The support and resistance levels above can serve as reference points, but they are not recommendations.

Finally, place the order through a SEBI-registered broker or the Univest app, and review the position after each quarterly result. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor if you are unsure.

Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track ONGC live price and get daily stock recommendations.

Conclusion

The ONGC share price target for 2027 is Rs 235 in the base case, with Rs 286 as the bull case. The support for that view is arithmetic you can check: EPS grew -8.2% a year over FY24 to FY26, and the stock trades at a PE of 5.83. The risks are equally concrete, including a net margin of just 8.0% that leaves profit sensitive to costs and a downside scenario that cuts the price 17% if earnings stall. Use these numbers as a framework for judging the ONGC price target, check them against the latest filings, and size any position to your own risk appetite.

FAQs on ONGC Share Price Target 2027

What is the ONGC share price target for 2027?

Ans. The base-case ONGC share price target for 2027 is Rs 235, which is 3.6% above the price of Rs 226.94 on 12 November 2026. The bull case is Rs 286 and the downside risk level, which is not a target, is Rs 188. All three come from one method: forward EPS multiplied by a PE multiple, using only reported results. They are model estimates and not guaranteed outcomes, and the next quarterly result is the first check on the EPS assumption.

What is the ONGC share price today?

Ans. As of 12 November 2026, 9:28 AM IST, ONGC (NSE: ONGC) trades at Rs 226.94, up 0.06% on the day. That is 26.2% below the 52-week high of Rs 307.50 and 3.8% above the 52-week low of Rs 218.53. The market capitalisation of Rs 2,95,637 crore places it among large-cap stocks. Prices change through the trading session, so check the live quote before acting on any level in this article.

Is ONGC a buy or sell at the current price?

Ans. The data points both ways. On the positive side, EPS has grown -8.2% a year over FY24 to FY26 and the base case implies 3.6% upside; on the cautious side, the net margin is a thin 8.0%, and the downside risk level of Rs 188 is 17% below the current price. Whether ONGC fits your portfolio depends on your time horizon, position size and risk appetite. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing, as this article is not investment advice.

What are the bull case target and downside risk level for ONGC shares?

Ans. The bull case in the ONGC share price target for 2027 is Rs 286, which assumes 6.0% EPS growth and a PE of 6.70, a 15% re-rating from today's multiple. That is 26.0% above the current price and below the 52-week high of Rs 307.50. The downside risk level is Rs 188, which assumes flat EPS and a PE of 4.66, 20% lower than today. It sits 17.2% below the current price and below the 52-week low of Rs 218.53, and it marks a risk to watch, not a target.

What are the main risks to the ONGC price target?

Ans. Four risks matter most for the ONGC share price target: slower revenue or profit growth, a PE de-rating, thin liquidity or size risk, and weakness in the broader market. The market capitalisation of Rs 2,95,637 crore means liquidity is deep, so the bigger risk is paying a full price for slow earnings growth. A fall to the downside-risk PE of 4.66 would cut the price even if earnings hold.

What is the PE ratio of ONGC and how does it compare with the industry?

Ans. The PE ratio of ONGC is 5.83, against an industry PE of 6.53, which is a discount to the industry. Price to book is 0.74 and return on equity is 12.35%, and the PE equals an earnings yield of 17.2%. The base case holds the PE unchanged, so the ONGC share price target moves only with earnings, while the bull and downside scenarios change the multiple by +15% and -20%.

Who owns ONGC, and what is the promoter holding?

Ans. Promoters held 58.89% of ONGC in September 2026. FII held 8.56%, DII held 18.66% and the public held 13.89%. Together the two institutional groups hold 27.22%. Shareholding is filed every quarter, so it is worth rechecking after each result.

What were ONGC's latest quarterly results?

Ans. In the September 2026 quarter, ONGC reported revenue of Rs 2,01,458 crore (up 25.0% year on year) and net profit of Rs 18,535 crore (up 46.9%). For comparison, FY26 full-year revenue growth was -0.6% and net profit moved up 29.9%. Each new quarter either supports or weakens the EPS growth of 0.0% assumed in the base case.