NMDC Steel Share Price Target 2026: Stock Analysis, Share Price Today, Bull Case and Bear Case After Q1 FY27

NMDC Steel Rs 40.90 (6 Oct 2026 close). 52-week range Rs 33.01 to Rs 53.75. Q1 FY27 profit Rs 50.5 cr, up 98%. 0.91x book.

The NMDC Steel share price target for 2026 is Rs 39 to Rs 46 in the Univest base case, with the stock at Rs 40.90 at the 6 October 2026 close. That is 23.9 percent below its 52-week high of Rs 53.75 and 23.9 percent above its 52-week low of Rs 33.01, and the stock moved down 9.0 percent over the past year. NMDC Steel runs the 3 million tonne Nagarnar integrated steel plant in Chhattisgarh and was demerged from NMDC Limited. Debt to equity is 0.35 and the company pays no dividend.

Three things changed since the last update: Q1 FY27 results on 14 August showed profit nearly doubling, the stock spiked 23 percent in the week of 24 August on heavy volume, and it then fell back to Rs 40. This NMDC Steel stock analysis covers the NMDC Steel share price today, the NMDC Steel share price target for 2026, 2027 and 2030, the Q1 FY27 numbers, catalysts and risks, key price levels and a NMDC Steel buy or sell view.

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What Is the NMDC Steel Share Price Target for 2026?

The 2026 target for NMDC Steel shares is Rs 39 to Rs 46 in the Univest base case, which is -4.6% to +12.5% against the last close. The bull case is Rs 51 to Rs 60 and the bear case is Rs 30 to Rs 34. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario. Analyst consensus is used as a cross-check, not as the base.

NMDC Steel Share Price Target Scenarios: Bull Case, Base Case and Bear Case

Scenario	FY28E Book Value	Target Multiple	Price Target (Rs)	Move vs Rs 40.90
Bull Case	Rs 46	1.1x to 1.3x	51 to 60	+24.7% to +46.7%
Base Case	Rs 46	0.85x to 1x	39 to 46	-4.6% to +12.5%
Bear Case	Rs 46	0.65x to 0.75x	30 to 34	-26.7% to -16.9%

NMDC Steel earns very little against its asset base, so the ranges use price to book value with a Univest book value assumption of Rs 46 per share for FY28. The base case of 0.85 to 1.0 times is close to the present 0.91 times, and the bull case needs a strategic sale at a premium to book. The PE multiple of 141 times rests on tiny earnings, so the table uses price to book in place of an EPS estimate, and the book value is a Univest assumption, not company guidance. Those assumptions set the NMDC Steel share price target range around the current price.

NMDC Steel Company Overview and Share Price Today as of 6 October 2026

NMDC Steel share price today is Rs 40.90 on the NSE at the 6 October 2026 close, before the market opens on 7 October. The market capitalisation is Rs 11,989 crore, and the stock trades at 141 times earnings on a very small profit against an industry average of 21.9 times. The Univest base case NMDC Steel share price target of Rs 39 to Rs 46 is -4.6% to +12.5% from here. The table below sets out the key numbers behind the NMDC Steel share price target.

Parameter	Value	Context
NSE Ticker	NSLNISP	BSE code 543768
Sector	Steel (state-owned)	Per Univest sector classification
Last Close (NSE)	Rs 40.90	6 Oct 2026 close
52-Week High	Rs 53.75	CMP is 23.9% below
52-Week Low	Rs 33.01	CMP is 23.9% above
1-Year Return	About -9%	Weekly close Rs 44.93 on 10 Oct 2025 to Rs 40.9
Market Capitalisation	Rs 11,989 crore	Mid cap state-owned steel maker
Trailing P/E	About 141x (not comparable)	Industry P/E about 21.94x
P/B Ratio	About 0.91x	Book value Rs 44.95 per share
EPS (TTM)	Rs 0.29	Trailing twelve months
Return on Equity	About 0.45%	Debt to equity 0.35
Dividend Yield	Nil	No dividend
12-Month Target (Base Case)	Rs 39 to Rs 46	Univest base case
Bull Case	Rs 51 to Rs 60	+24.7% to +46.7%
Bear Case	Rs 30 to Rs 34	-26.7% to -16.9%

Track live price, fundamentals and results for NMDC Steel on the Univest Screener.

How Did NMDC Steel Perform in Q1 FY27?

NMDC Steel reported Q1 FY27 standalone revenue of Rs 3,661.84 crore, up 8.8 percent from Rs 3,365.22 crore, and net profit of Rs 50.51 crore, up 97.6 percent from Rs 25.56 crore. Profit before tax rose 104.6 percent to Rs 73.95 crore. Together these Q1 FY27 numbers anchor the NMDC Steel share price target.

Metric	Q1 FY27	Context
Revenue	Rs 3,661.84 crore	Up 8.8% YoY
Net Profit	Rs 50.51 crore	Up 97.6% from Rs 25.56 crore
Profit Before Tax	Rs 73.95 crore	Up 104.6% YoY
Finance Cost	Rs 126.38 crore	Depreciation Rs 242.12 crore
Operating Margin	10.9%	Against 12.1% a year ago
Net Worth	Rs 13,228 crore	Debt to equity 0.38

Higher use of the Nagarnar plant is helping to cover large interest and depreciation costs. NMDC Limited is owed Rs 6,448 crore by NMDC Steel after the demerger. The FY27 outlook from management is the main input for these estimates. These numbers sit behind every range in the scenario table above, so they anchor the NMDC Steel share price target.

Why Is NMDC Steel Share Price 24 Percent Below Its June High?

NMDC Steel shares are about 24 percent below the Rs 53.75 high of the week of 1 June 2026, when the stock rose 12 percent on volume of 22 crore shares. The stock rose 23 percent in the week of 24 August to Rs 49.02 on 15.6 crore shares.

Neither spike held, and the stock fell about 17 percent to Rs 40.15 in the week of 28 September. The sources we track did not confirm the cause of the spikes, and no strategic buyer has been named. The NMDC Steel share price target scenarios below account for that move.

Key Catalysts for the NMDC Steel Share Price Target in 2026

4 catalysts matter most for the NMDC Steel share price target, and sector tailwinds in Steel (state-owned) are part of the case. Together they decide whether the base case is reached.

1. Strategic Stake Sale

The government plans to sell its 50.79 percent stake to a strategic buyer, and to offer 10 percent to NMDC Limited. A deal at a premium would lift the price. If it plays out, the NMDC Steel share price target moves toward the top of the base range.

2. Plant Utilisation

The 3 million tonne Nagarnar plant is ramping up. Higher use spreads fixed costs. Strength here would support the upper end of the NMDC Steel share price target.

3. Profit Recovery

Profit before tax doubled to Rs 73.95 crore. Continued growth would lift earnings. Delivery on this point keeps the NMDC Steel share price target on track.

4. Low Price to Book

The stock trades at 0.91 times book value. A buyer paying book value or more would lift it. Better news here would lift the NMDC Steel share price target toward the bull case.

What Are the Key Risks to the NMDC Steel Share Price Target?

The main risks are a delayed stake sale, heavy interest and depreciation, steel prices and thin margins. Each can pull the NMDC Steel share price target lower.

Delayed Stake Sale

Approval for the sale was given in 2016 and no buyer is named. A further delay would deflate sale hopes. If it materialises, the NMDC Steel share price target would slip toward the bear case.

Heavy Interest and Depreciation

Finance costs of Rs 126 crore and depreciation of Rs 242 crore eat most operating profit. This is the main downside risk to the NMDC Steel share price target.

Steel Prices

Operating margin fell to 10.9 percent. A bear case of 0.65 times book value of Rs 46 would put the price near Rs 30. A worsening here would cut the NMDC Steel share price target toward the low end of the range.

Receivable Dues

NMDC Steel owes NMDC Limited Rs 6,448 crore. Settlement terms could affect cash. Watch it closely, because it can pull the NMDC Steel share price target lower quickly.

NMDC Steel Stock Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels for the Share Price Target

NMDC Steel stock analysis on weekly charts shows a range of Rs 40 to Rs 46 since mid-September, with the stock near the lower end.

The first support level is Rs 40.15 to Rs 40.30, the lows of the weeks of 28 September and 5 October. Below that, Rs 39.30 was the low of the week of 17 August and Rs 33.01 is the March low.

The first resistance level is Rs 41.30 to Rs 43.10, the highs of the weeks of 5 and 28 September. Above that, Rs 44.60 is the high of the week of 21 September and Rs 46 to Rs 49.40 marks the late-August highs. These levels come from weekly price action, are not trade recommendations, and frame the near-term NMDC Steel share price target.

NMDC Steel Share Price Target 2026, 2027 and 2030: Short, Medium and Long Term

Short-Term NMDC Steel Share Price Target (3 to 6 Months)

In the near term the stock is likely to trade between Rs 40 and Rs 44.60, from the late-September low to the high of the week of 21 September. A close above Rs 43.10 would put Rs 44.60 in play, while a weekly close under Rs 40.15 would put Rs 39.30 in play. The Q2 FY27 results and any sale news are the main triggers. This range anchors the near-term NMDC Steel share price target.

12-Month and 2027 NMDC Steel Share Price Target

The 12-month target price is Rs 39 to Rs 46, valued on 0.85 to 1 times FY28 book value of Rs 46. The range across scenarios runs from Rs 30 in the bear case to Rs 60 in the bull case.

Long-Term NMDC Steel Share Price Target for FY29 to 2030

For FY29 to 2030 the Univest scenario range is Rs 43 to Rs 60. This assumes book value of Rs 48 in FY29 and Rs 50 in FY30 and a multiple of 0.9 to 1.2 times. It needs the government stake sale to a strategic buyer to close and the Nagarnar plant to run near full capacity. This is the long-term NMDC Steel share price target in the Univest scenarios.

Bull Case and Bear Case for NMDC Steel Share Price Target

Bull Case Rs 51 to Rs 60

The bull case of Rs 51 to Rs 60 for the NMDC Steel share price target needs book value of Rs 46 and the market to pay 1.1 to 1.3 times for it. It is +24.7% to +46.7% from the last close.

Bear Case Rs 30 to Rs 34

The bear case of Rs 30 to Rs 34 for the NMDC Steel share price target equals 0.65 to 0.75 times FY28 book value of Rs 46 and sits near the Rs 33.01 low. It is -26.7% to -16.9% from the last close.

Is NMDC Steel a Good Buy at Rs 40.90? NMDC Steel Buy or Sell View

Whether NMDC Steel is a buy at Rs 40.90 depends on horizon and risk appetite. The base case sits between 5 percent below and 12 percent above the current price, the stock is 24 percent below its high, and the open question is the stake sale. The NMDC Steel share price target range is the starting point for that decision.

Long-term holders may focus on the stake sale, plant use and interest costs, and treat Rs 40.15 as the level to watch. Short-term traders may prefer to wait for a close above Rs 43.10. Check institutional holding in the September quarter filing for signs of accumulation or selling. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting, since this NMDC Steel buy or sell view is educational.

How to Invest in NMDC Steel Shares

Step 1: Check the live price, valuation and the latest NMDC Steel share price target range on the Univest Screener.

Step 2: Open a demat and trading account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest before acting on any NMDC Steel share price target.

Step 3: Search for NSLNISP on the NSE or 543768 on the BSE in your trading app.

Step 4: Place a limit order near your planned entry and size the position so a fall to Rs 30 is bearable.

Step 5: Track the stake sale, plant utilisation and Q2 FY27 results and set price alerts on the Univest App to follow any change in the NMDC Steel share price target.

Conclusion

NMDC Steel closed at Rs 40.90 against a Univest base case share price target of Rs 39 to Rs 46, a bull case of Rs 51 to Rs 60 and a bear case of Rs 30 to Rs 34. Q1 FY27 delivered profit growth of 97.6 percent to Rs 50.51 crore, with operating margin at 10.9 percent. The main risks are a delayed stake sale, heavy interest and steel prices.

The stock is 23.9 percent below its 52-week high, so the base case sits between 5 percent below and 12 percent above the current price. The triggers to watch are the stake sale, plant utilisation and Q2 FY27 results and the Rs 40.15 and Rs 43.10 levels. Re-check the NMDC Steel share price target after each quarterly result. Investors with a long horizon and tolerance for volatility can track these triggers, while others may prefer to size positions carefully.

Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track NMDC Steel live price and get daily stock recommendations.

FAQs on NMDC Steel Share Price Target 2026

What is the NMDC Steel share price target for 2026?

Ans. The NMDC Steel share price target for 2026 is Rs 39 to Rs 46 in the Univest base case, with a bull case of Rs 51 to Rs 60 and a bear case of Rs 30 to Rs 34. No brokerage target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so these are Univest research scenarios. These are estimates and can change after the Q2 FY27 results.

What is the NMDC Steel share price target for 2027?

Ans. The NMDC Steel share price target for 2027 is Rs 39 to Rs 46 in the base case, valued on 0.85 to 1 times FY28 book value of Rs 46. The scenario range runs from Rs 30 to Rs 60.

Is NMDC Steel a good buy at Rs 40.90?

Ans. Whether NMDC Steel is a good buy at Rs 40.90 depends on your horizon, risk appetite and how you read the NMDC Steel share price target. The stock trades near book value and profit nearly doubled, but earnings are tiny and the sale has no confirmed buyer. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

What are the key risks to the NMDC Steel share price target?

Ans. The key risks to the NMDC Steel share price target are delayed stake sale, heavy interest and depreciation, steel prices and receivable dues. Approval for the sale was given in 2016 and no buyer is named. A further delay would deflate sale hopes.

What are the key catalysts for the NMDC Steel share price target?

Ans. The key catalysts for the NMDC Steel share price target are strategic stake sale, plant utilisation, profit recovery and low price to book. The government plans to sell its 50.79 percent stake to a strategic buyer, and to offer 10 percent to NMDC Limited. A deal at a premium would lift the price.

Where can I track NMDC Steel share price today and NMDC Steel share price target updates?

Ans. You can track the live NMDC Steel share price, results and any change to the NMDC Steel share price target on the Univest Screener and the Univest App. Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App for research from SEBI-registered analysts.

What are NMDC Steel's 52-week high and low?

Ans. NMDC Steel's 52-week high is Rs 53.75 and its 52-week low is Rs 33.01, based on weekly NSE data. At Rs 40.90 the stock is 23.9 percent below the high and 23.9 percent above the low. Both levels frame the NMDC Steel share price target.

How to buy NMDC Steel shares?

Ans. Open a demat account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest, search for NSLNISP on the NSE or 543768 on the BSE, and place a limit order near your entry price, using the NMDC Steel share price target range as a guide. Size the position so a fall to Rs 30 is bearable, and check the live price on the Univest Screener first.