NAVA Share Price Target 2026: Stock Analysis, Share Price Today, Bull Case and Bear Case After Q1 FY27

NAVA Rs 575 (6 Oct 2026 close). 52-week range Rs 501.65 to Rs 739.40. Q1 FY27 profit Rs 277 cr, down 10%; record income Rs 1,269 cr.

The NAVA share price target for 2026 is Rs 532 to Rs 646 in the Univest base case, with the stock at Rs 575.00 at the 6 October 2026 close. That is 22.2 percent below its 52-week high of Rs 739.40 and 14.6 percent above its 52-week low of Rs 501.65, and the stock moved down 7.9 percent over the past year. NAVA, formerly Nava Bharat Ventures, makes ferro alloys, runs power plants in India and Zambia and mines coal and manganese. Debt to equity is 0.25 and the dividend yield is 1.48 percent.

Three things changed since the last update: Q1 FY27 results showed record income but lower profit, management pushed back the Maamba Phase 2 start to Q2 FY28, and a 60 MW Odisha unit began a 55 to 60 day maintenance shutdown on 6 September. This NAVA stock analysis covers the NAVA share price today, the NAVA share price target for 2026, 2027 and 2030, the Q1 FY27 numbers, catalysts and risks, key price levels and a NAVA buy or sell view.

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What Is the NAVA Share Price Target for 2026?

The 2026 target for NAVA shares is Rs 532 to Rs 646 in the Univest base case, which is -7.5% to +12.3% against the last close. The bull case is Rs 736 to Rs 828 and the bear case is Rs 308 to Rs 364. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario. Analyst consensus is used as a cross-check, not as the base.

NAVA Share Price Target Scenarios: Bull Case, Base Case and Bear Case

Scenario	FY28E EPS	Target Multiple	Price Target (Rs)	Move vs Rs 575.00
Bull Case	Rs 46	16x to 18x	736 to 828	+28.0% to +44.0%
Base Case	Rs 38	14x to 17x	532 to 646	-7.5% to +12.3%
Bear Case	Rs 28	11x to 13x	308 to 364	-46.4% to -36.7%

FY28 EPS of Rs 38 in the base case compares with trailing EPS of Rs 34.32 and assumes ferro alloys volume recovers and power plants run at high load factors, without Maamba Phase 2 earnings. The stock trades at about 15 times the base estimate. The PE multiple used for each case is shown in the table, and the EPS estimate is a Univest assumption, not company guidance. Those assumptions set the NAVA share price target range around the current price.

NAVA Company Overview and Share Price Today as of 6 October 2026

NAVA share price today is Rs 575.00 on the NSE at the 6 October 2026 close, before the market opens on 7 October. The market capitalisation is Rs 16,283 crore, and the stock trades at 16.8 times earnings against an industry average of 14.8 times. The Univest base case NAVA share price target of Rs 532 to Rs 646 is -7.5% to +12.3% from here. The table below sets out the key numbers behind the NAVA share price target.

Parameter	Value	Context
NSE Ticker	NAVA	BSE code 513023
Sector	Metals, power and mining	Per Univest sector classification
Last Close (NSE)	Rs 575.00	6 Oct 2026 close
52-Week High	Rs 739.40	CMP is 22.2% below
52-Week Low	Rs 501.65	CMP is 14.6% above
1-Year Return	About -8%	Weekly close Rs 624.45 on 10 Oct 2025 to Rs 575
Market Capitalisation	Rs 16,283 crore	Mid cap diversified metals and power firm
Trailing P/E	About 16.8x	Industry P/E about 14.83x
P/B Ratio	About 1.86x	Book value Rs 308.68 per share
EPS (TTM)	Rs 34.32	Trailing twelve months
Return on Equity	About 9.0%	Debt to equity 0.25
Dividend Yield	About 1.48%	Dividend paid yearly
12-Month Target (Base Case)	Rs 532 to Rs 646	Univest base case
Bull Case	Rs 736 to Rs 828	+28.0% to +44.0%
Bear Case	Rs 308 to Rs 364	-46.4% to -36.7%

Track live price, fundamentals and results for NAVA on the Univest Screener.

How Did NAVA Perform in Q1 FY27?

NAVA reported Q1 FY27 consolidated revenue from operations of Rs 1,211.8 crore, up 1.6 percent, and a record total income of Rs 1,269 crore. Consolidated profit was Rs 277.2 crore, down 10 percent from Rs 308 crore and up 118 percent from Rs 127.1 crore in Q4 FY26. Together these Q1 FY27 numbers anchor the NAVA share price target.

Metric	Q1 FY27	Context
Revenue from Operations	Rs 1,211.8 crore	Up 1.6% YoY; up 6% QoQ
Total Income	Rs 1,269 crore	Record quarter
Consolidated Profit	Rs 277.2 crore	Down 10% YoY; up 118% QoQ
EBITDA Margin	43.4%	Against 49.3% a year ago
Energy Revenue	Up 18.3% QoQ	Odisha 150 MW unit PLF 76%
Maamba PLF	89.3%	526 million units sold

Mining revenue rose 20.4 percent from the previous quarter. Ferro alloys revenue fell because the Odisha furnaces were stopped for planned maintenance until 1 August, and management cited lower coal costs and dividend income from NAVA Global as supports. NAVA also runs coal and manganese mining and a 150 MW Odisha power unit, and the group reports energy, mining and metals as separate divisions, which makes the quarterly mix easier to follow.

Investors read the quarter through its power plant load factors, ferro alloys output and mining sales rather than a single headline number. The Odisha ferro alloys furnaces were off line for most of the quarter, so a full quarter of production should help the next set of results. Zambia remains the largest single source of profit, which keeps currency and tariff terms in focus.

The FY27 outlook from management is the main input for these estimates. These numbers sit behind every range in the scenario table above, so they anchor the NAVA share price target.

Why Is NAVA Share Price 22 Percent Below Its May High?

NAVA shares are about 22 percent below the Rs 739.40 high of the week of 11 May 2026 after a sharp rally. The stock jumped 16.8 percent in the week of 13 April on 2.7 crore shares, or 35 times normal volume, and then fell 13.6 percent from the May peak.

It slid to Rs 540 in late September after Q1 profit fell 10 percent and the Maamba expansion was delayed, then rose 4.1 percent in the week of 5 October to close at Rs 575. No single announcement explained the April spike. The NAVA share price target scenarios below account for that move.

Key Catalysts for the NAVA Share Price Target in 2026

4 catalysts matter most for the NAVA share price target, and sector tailwinds in Metals, power and mining are part of the case. Together they decide whether the base case is reached.

1. Maamba Performance

The 300 MW Zambia plant ran at an 89.3 percent load factor. Steady output gives strong cash flow. If it plays out, the NAVA share price target moves toward the top of the base range.

2. Maamba Phase 2

The 300 MW expansion is now due in Q2 FY28. Delivery would add a large new earnings stream. Strength here would support the upper end of the NAVA share price target.

3. Ferro Alloys Recovery

Odisha furnaces resumed on 1 August after planned maintenance. Normal volume would lift revenue. Delivery on this point keeps the NAVA share price target on track.

4. Lower Coal Costs

Lower coal and manufacturing costs supported margin. Dividend income from NAVA Global added to profit. Better news here would lift the NAVA share price target toward the bull case.

What Are the Key Risks to the NAVA Share Price Target?

The main risks are project delays, plant outages, commodity prices and Zambia exposure. Each can pull the NAVA share price target lower.

Project Delays

Maamba Phase 2 faces cost challenges and is already later than planned. Further delay would push out earnings. If it materialises, the NAVA share price target would slip toward the bear case.

Plant Outages

A 60 MW Odisha unit is shut for 55 to 60 days from 6 September. Outages cut power revenue. This is the main downside risk to the NAVA share price target.

Commodity Prices

EBITDA margin fell to 43.4 percent from 49.3 percent. A bear case EPS of Rs 28 at 11 times would put the price near Rs 308. A worsening here would cut the NAVA share price target toward the low end of the range.

Zambia Exposure

A large share of profit comes from Zambia. Currency or policy shifts there would hit earnings. Watch it closely, because it can pull the NAVA share price target lower quickly.

NAVA Stock Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels for the Share Price Target

NAVA stock analysis on weekly charts shows a range of Rs 534 to Rs 580 since mid-September, with the stock near the upper end.

The first support level is Rs 552 to Rs 554, the low of the week of 5 October and the lows of late August. Below that, Rs 540 is the low of the week of 28 September and Rs 534 is the low of the week of 14 September.

The first resistance level is Rs 578, the high of the week of 5 October. Above that, Rs 586 to Rs 600 marks the August highs and Rs 639.80 is the high of the week of 15 June. These levels come from weekly price action, are not trade recommendations, and frame the near-term NAVA share price target.

NAVA Share Price Target 2026, 2027 and 2030: Short, Medium and Long Term

Short-Term NAVA Share Price Target (3 to 6 Months)

In the near term the stock is likely to trade between Rs 540 and Rs 600, from the late-September low to the August highs. A close above Rs 580 would put Rs 600 in play, while a weekly close under Rs 552 would put Rs 540 in play. The Q2 FY27 results are the main trigger. This range anchors the near-term NAVA share price target.

12-Month and 2027 NAVA Share Price Target

The 12-month target price is Rs 532 to Rs 646, valued on 14 to 17 times FY28 EPS of Rs 38. The range across scenarios runs from Rs 308 in the bear case to Rs 828 in the bull case.

Long-Term NAVA Share Price Target for FY29 to 2030

For FY29 to 2030 the Univest scenario range is Rs 572 to Rs 832. This assumes EPS of Rs 44 in FY29 and Rs 52 in FY30 and a multiple of 13 to 16 times. It needs Maamba Phase 2 to start on time and ferro alloys volume to recover after the planned stoppage. This is the long-term NAVA share price target in the Univest scenarios.

Bull Case and Bear Case for NAVA Share Price Target

Bull Case Rs 736 to Rs 828

The bull case of Rs 736 to Rs 828 for the NAVA share price target needs EPS of Rs 46 and the market to pay 16 to 18 times for it. It is +28.0% to +44.0% from the last close.

Bear Case Rs 308 to Rs 364

The bear case of Rs 308 to Rs 364 for the NAVA share price target equals 11 to 13 times FY28 EPS of Rs 28 and sits below the Rs 501.65 low. It is -46.4% to -36.7% from the last close.

Is NAVA a Good Buy at Rs 575? NAVA Buy or Sell View

Whether NAVA is a buy at Rs 575.00 depends on horizon and risk appetite. The base case sits between 8 percent below and 12 percent above the current price, the stock is 22 percent below its high, and the open question is Maamba Phase 2. The NAVA share price target range is the starting point for that decision.

Long-term holders may focus on Maamba, ferro alloys volume and margin, and treat Rs 552 as the level to watch. Short-term traders may prefer to wait for a close above Rs 580. Check institutional holding in the September quarter filing for signs of accumulation or selling. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting, since this NAVA buy or sell view is educational.

How to Invest in NAVA Shares

Step 1: Check the live price, valuation and the latest NAVA share price target range on the Univest Screener.

Step 2: Open a demat and trading account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest before acting on any NAVA share price target.

Step 3: Search for NAVA on the NSE or 513023 on the BSE in your trading app.

Step 4: Place a limit order near your planned entry and size the position so a fall to Rs 308 is bearable.

Step 5: Track Maamba Phase 2, ferro alloys volume and Q2 FY27 results and set price alerts on the Univest App to follow any change in the NAVA share price target.

Conclusion

NAVA closed at Rs 575.00 against a Univest base case share price target of Rs 532 to Rs 646, a bull case of Rs 736 to Rs 828 and a bear case of Rs 308 to Rs 364. Q1 FY27 delivered record income of Rs 1,269 crore but profit down 10 percent, with EBITDA margin at 43.4 percent. The main risks are project delays, plant outages and commodity prices.

The stock is 22.2 percent below its 52-week high, so the base case sits between 8 percent below and 12 percent above the current price. The triggers to watch are Maamba Phase 2, ferro alloys volume and Q2 FY27 results and the Rs 552 and Rs 580 levels. Re-check the NAVA share price target after each quarterly result. Investors with a long horizon and tolerance for volatility can track these triggers, while others may prefer to size positions carefully.

Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track NAVA live price and get daily stock recommendations.

FAQs on NAVA Share Price Target 2026

What is the NAVA share price target for 2026?

Ans. The NAVA share price target for 2026 is Rs 532 to Rs 646 in the Univest base case, with a bull case of Rs 736 to Rs 828 and a bear case of Rs 308 to Rs 364. No brokerage target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so these are Univest research scenarios. These are estimates and can change after the Q2 FY27 results.

What is the NAVA share price target for 2027?

Ans. The NAVA share price target for 2027 is Rs 532 to Rs 646 in the base case, valued on 14 to 17 times FY28 EPS of Rs 38. The scenario range runs from Rs 308 to Rs 828.

Is NAVA a good buy at Rs 575.00?

Ans. Whether NAVA is a good buy at Rs 575.00 depends on your horizon, risk appetite and how you read the NAVA share price target. Income is at a record with a 1.5 percent yield, but profit fell 10 percent and a key expansion is delayed. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

What are the key risks to the NAVA share price target?

Ans. The key risks to the NAVA share price target are project delays, plant outages, commodity prices and zambia exposure. Maamba Phase 2 faces cost challenges and is already later than planned. Further delay would push out earnings.

What are the key catalysts for the NAVA share price target?

Ans. The key catalysts for the NAVA share price target are maamba performance, maamba phase 2, ferro alloys recovery and lower coal costs. The 300 MW Zambia plant ran at an 89.3 percent load factor. Steady output gives strong cash flow.

Where can I track NAVA share price today and NAVA share price target updates?

Ans. You can track the live NAVA share price, results and any change to the NAVA share price target on the Univest Screener and the Univest App. Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App for research from SEBI-registered analysts.

What are NAVA's 52-week high and low?

Ans. NAVA's 52-week high is Rs 739.40 and its 52-week low is Rs 501.65, based on weekly NSE data. At Rs 575.00 the stock is 22.2 percent below the high and 14.6 percent above the low. Both levels frame the NAVA share price target.

How to buy NAVA shares?

Ans. Open a demat account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest, search for NAVA on the NSE or 513023 on the BSE, and place a limit order near your entry price, using the NAVA share price target range as a guide. Size the position so a fall to Rs 308 is bearable, and check the live price on the Univest Screener first.