ITC Share Price Rises on Q2 Results Buzz After a 35% One-Year Fall: Cigarette Price Hikes, Target Prices From Rs 290 to Rs 440 and the Rs 255 Stop-Loss Level

ITC share price rose about 2% on 5 October, to Rs 261.60 from a Thursday close of Rs 255.90, as investors bet that ITC Q2 results will show the worst of the excise duty shock is behind the FMCG major. The stock is down about 27% in 2026 and about 35% in twelve months, and it trades at a P/E of about 17, within 3% of its 52-week low of Rs 254.65, with cigarette volume the key swing factor.

If you are searching for the ITC target price, the ITC stop-loss level and ITC Q2 results, this article covers why the stock fell, the cigarette price hikes, Q1 FY27 results, the Q2 results outlook, brokerage targets from Systematix, JPMorgan, Antique and 360 One, valuation, the key levels and the risks. Price data is based on NSE and BSE figures, so recheck it before acting.

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Why Is ITC Share Price Rising Today?

The ITC share price is rising on three things: a broad market rebound, a run of cigarette price hikes that analysts say will lift margins, and hopes that Q2 results will show volumes stabilising. Weak US jobs data and easing crude lifted the Sensex 0.8% in morning trade, and ITC gained more than the market.

Why Has ITC Share Price Fallen 35% in a Year?

The fall is almost entirely a cigarette tax story. From 1 February 2026 the GST compensation cess expired and the government moved cigarettes into a 40% GST slab with an additional excise duty that depends on stick length. Analysts put the weighted tax increase for ITC at 28% to 30%, and the cumulative hike on some products near 45%.

ITC raised prices by a blended 25% early on, but analysts estimated that 35% to 40% was needed to fully offset the taxes. The shortfall hit margins, and the stock lost about 33% from the announcement to late September.

ITC Cigarette Price Hikes Behind the ITC Share Price

Brand and pack	Earlier price	September price	Change
Gold Flake Premium, 10 sticks	Rs 125 (Rs 115 at start of 2026)	Rs 135	Up 8% in September, up 17.4% in 2026
Classic Connect, 20 sticks	Rs 390 (about Rs 300 in February)	Rs 428	Up 9.74% in September, about 43% since February
Gold Flake Super Star, 10 sticks	Rs 79 (Rs 59 in February)	Rs 89	Up 12.66% in September

ICICI Direct estimates that these steps cover about 60% to 70% of the price rise needed to offset the tax, and that ITC will complete the portfolio repricing by Q3 FY27. A staggered approach protects volumes better than a single large hike, and Q1 FY27 volumes fell about 5% against the 10% decline analysts had feared, which is the main support for the ITC share price.

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ITC Q1 FY27 Results: Revenue Up, Profit Down for the ITC Share Price

Q1 FY27 metric	Figure	Change
Consolidated revenue	Rs 29,523.30 crore	Up 27.6%, inflated by the higher excise duty
Consolidated profit attributable to owners	Rs 4,394.13 crore	Down 16.2%
Standalone net profit	Rs 3,578.82 crore	Down 27% from Rs 4,910.73 crore
Cigarette revenue	Up about 80%	Reflects excise duty, not demand
Non-cigarette FMCG revenue	Up 15.3%	Healthy growth

The headline revenue jump owes more to the excise reset than to demand, and profit fell by more than the Street expected, which explains the weak ITC share price. The positive was a smaller volume decline than feared and 15% growth in non-cigarette FMCG.

ITC Q2 Results Outlook: What the Buzz Means for the ITC Share Price

ITC has not confirmed its Q2 results date, and last year it reported on 30 October. The buzz rests on cigarette price hikes flowing into realisations and on volumes stabilising as prices settle. ICICI Direct expects the hikes to weigh on volumes in Q2 and Q3 and sees gradual recovery from Q4 FY27, while HDFC Securities factors in a 6% volume decline for FY27.

Channel checks suggest consumers are downtrading, and Maharashtra king-size volumes reportedly fell about 20% in April. The Q2 print will show whether that eased as price gaps with lower-priced brands narrowed.

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ITC Target Price: What Brokerages Say

Source	Rating or view	Target price
360 One	Sum-of-the-parts valuation	Rs 440, about 68% above Rs 261.60
Antique Stock Broking	Target as cited	Rs 408
JPMorgan	Target as cited	Rs 310
Investec	Target as cited	Rs 308
Systematix	Hold, 18 times FY28E earnings	Rs 290

Systematix is cautious because cigarette volumes are subdued and price lags drag profit, and it expects the stock to stay range-bound near term. The spread of targets, from Rs 290 to Rs 440, shows how divided the Street is on how fast volumes and margins recover for the ITC share price.

ITC Stop-Loss and Support Levels for the ITC Share Price

Level	Type	Why it matters
Rs 290	Target	Near-term target in one technical view and the Systematix target
Rs 268	Resistance	A close above is the trigger in the technical view
Rs 261.60	5 October price	Up Rs 5.70 on the day
Rs 255	Stop-loss	Technical view and almost exactly the 52-week low
Rs 254.65	52-week low	A close below would be a fresh low

One analyst's view is that a closing break above Rs 268 could take ITC to Rs 290 with a stop-loss at Rs 255, for both fresh investors and existing holders. From Rs 261.60 that is about 11% of upside against a risk of about 2.5%, my arithmetic on reported levels. These are the analyst's views on the ITC share price and not a recommendation.

ITC Share Price Today: Valuation and Key Numbers

Item	Figure	What it tells you
Price, 5 October	About Rs 261.60	Up 2.2%
Market capitalisation	About Rs 3.21 lakh crore	Large-cap FMCG
Price to earnings	About 17 times	Close to the 18 times used by Systematix
52-week range	Rs 254.65 to Rs 426.40	High set on 31 October 2025
One-year return	About -35%	Heavy underperformance
Return in 2026	About -27%	Tax-driven

The ITC share price at a P/E of about 17 is close to the 18 times Systematix uses, so the debate is about earnings recovery and not the multiple.

Risks Behind the ITC Share Price

More tax: A further excise increase would again outpace price hikes and cut margins, hurting the ITC share price.

Volume loss: Downtrading and illicit trade can erode cigarette volumes more than expected.

Pricing lag: Price hikes cover only 60% to 70% of the required increase so far, which can cap the ITC share price.

FMCG margins: Non-cigarette FMCG must keep growing at a mid-teens pace to offset cigarettes.

Technical break: A close below Rs 254.65 would put the ITC share price at a new 52-week low.

What Should Investors Watch Next for ITC?

1. The Q2 results date and the cigarette volume trend.
2. A close above Rs 268, which would turn the near-term trend.
3. Completion of price hikes across the portfolio in Q3 FY27.
4. Non-cigarette FMCG growth and margins.
5. Any change in cigarette taxation in the Union Budget.

Conclusion

The ITC share price rose 2.2% to Rs 261.60 on 5 October on Q2 hopes, but it is down 35% in a year because of the February tax hike, and Q1 profit fell 16%. Targets run from Rs 290 to Rs 440, and the technical stop-loss of Rs 255 sits at the 52-week low. Recovery in the ITC share price depends on cigarette volumes stabilising from Q4 FY27. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making any decision.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is ITC share price rising today?

Ans. The ITC share price rose 2.2% to Rs 261.60 on 5 October on a market rebound, cigarette price hikes and hopes of a better Q2.

Why has ITC share price fallen 35% in a year?

Ans. From 1 February 2026 cigarettes moved into a 40% GST slab with extra excise duty, raising the weighted tax by 28% to 30%. ITC's price hikes have not fully offset it, which has weighed on the ITC share price.

What is the ITC target price?

Ans. Brokerage targets range from Rs 290 (Systematix, Hold) to Rs 308 (Investec), Rs 310 (JPMorgan), Rs 408 (Antique) and Rs 440 (360 One). These are broker estimates and not guaranteed.

What is the ITC stop-loss level?

Ans. One analyst suggests a stop-loss at Rs 255 after a close above Rs 268, with a near-term target of Rs 290. Rs 255 is almost the 52-week low of Rs 254.65.

What were ITC's Q1 FY27 results?

Ans. Consolidated revenue rose 27.6% to Rs 29,523.30 crore, helped by excise duty, and profit attributable to owners fell 16.2% to Rs 4,394.13 crore.

When are ITC Q2 results?

Ans. ITC has not confirmed the date. It reported Q2 on 30 October last year, so late October or early November is likely.

Has ITC raised cigarette prices?

Ans. Yes. In September it raised Gold Flake Premium to Rs 135, Classic Connect to Rs 428 and Gold Flake Super Star to Rs 89, after earlier hikes in February and June.

Is ITC a good stock to buy now?

Ans. This article does not constitute investment advice. The ITC share price is near its 52-week low with a P/E of about 17, but volume recovery is unproven. Consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before investing.