Is Muhurat Trading Really Auspicious? What 10 Years of Nifty Data Show About the Diwali Session and the Year That Follows

Is Muhurat trading auspicious in the way the market actually moves, or only in the way families celebrate it? The data gives a clear answer: the Diwali session is reliably positive but small, and it tells investors almost nothing about the year ahead. This year the session falls on Sunday, 8 November 2026, from 2:20 PM to 3:30 PM IST, and it opens Samvat 2083.

To test whether Muhurat trading is auspicious, we separate the belief from the numbers using two measures: how the Nifty 50 moved during each Muhurat hour, and how it moved from one Muhurat session to the next. The second measure is the one that matters for anyone who buys on Diwali and holds.

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Why Is Muhurat Trading Auspicious in Indian Tradition?

Muhurat trading is auspicious in tradition because Diwali marks the start of the new Samvat year, when traders traditionally open new account books after Laxmi Pujan. The exchanges keep a one-hour window open on the festival day so that investors can make a token first trade of the year. The belief is that a purchase in this hour brings prosperity through the year.

Every trade in the session is real and creates a settlement obligation, so the ritual has a market impact. That is why it is fair to ask whether Muhurat trading is auspicious in the numbers too.

Muhurat Trading Returns: How the Diwali Hour Has Moved the Market

Muhurat trading returns during the session itself have been mostly positive and always small. Across the ten sessions from 2016 to 2025, the Nifty closed higher eight times, and the biggest move was a 0.87% gain in 2022. The weakest was a 0.63% fall in 2017.

Year	Muhurat session move (Nifty)	Nifty Muhurat close	Muhurat-to-Muhurat return (our calculation)
2016	-0.14%	8,625.70	+17.6% to 2017
2017	-0.63%	10,146.55	+4.5% to 2018
2018	+0.65%	10,598.40	+9.7% to 2019
2019	+0.37%	11,627.15	+9.9% to 2020
2020	+0.47%	12,780.25	+40.2% to 2021
2021	+0.49%	17,916.80	-1.0% to 2022
2022	+0.87%	17,730.75	+10.1% to 2023
2023	+0.51%	19,525.55	+24.5% to 2024
2024	+0.40%	24,304.35	+6.4% to 2025
2025	+0.10%	25,868.60	-7.4% to 4 Nov 2026

Source: NSE closing data. Session move is against the previous trading day's close. The last row runs to the 4 November 2026 close of 23,960.60.

The longer record says the same. Over 20 sessions from 2006 to 2025, the Nifty ended higher 15 times, and 19 of those 20 moves stayed within 1% in either direction. So if Muhurat trading is auspicious for the hour, the effect is a bias of a few tenths of a per cent.

Is Muhurat Trading Auspicious for the Year That Follows?

No, the data does not show Muhurat trading as auspicious for the year that follows, because a good session has not led to a good Samvat year in any consistent way. The two negative sessions in the table, 2016 and 2017, were followed by gains of 17.6% and 4.5%. The strongest session of the decade, 2022, was followed by a solid 10.1% year, but the 2021 session rose 0.49% and the year that followed lost 1.0%.

Samvat 2082 is the clearest recent example. The Muhurat hour on 21 October 2025 closed 0.10% higher and even marked a fresh one-year high, yet the Nifty was down about 7.4% by 4 November 2026. Business Standard reported that the Sensex and Nifty were set for their worst Samvat performance in 15 years, as foreign investors sold Rs 3.03 trillion of Indian equities.

Calling Muhurat trading auspicious for returns misses what actually drove each year: earnings, interest rates, foreign flows and global events, not the festive hour. The 40.2% gain after Muhurat 2020 came from the post-pandemic recovery, while the 2026 fall came from high crude prices and rising bond yields.

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Why the Muhurat Hour Usually Closes Higher

The Muhurat hour usually closes higher, which is one reason people believe Muhurat trading is auspicious, because buying is the tradition, not selling. Many investors place small token buy orders, often in stocks they already own, while few sellers rush to exit on a festival evening. That one-sided flow tends to lift prices slightly.

There is a catch. In many past sessions the market opened above the previous close and gave back part of that gain within the hour, so the first minutes have often been the most expensive point. A positive close for the index also hides wide differences between stocks.

So, Is Muhurat Trading Auspicious for Your Money?

Muhurat trading is auspicious as a reminder to invest with intent, and that is where its real value lies. Treating the session as a forecast has not worked, but treating it as a yearly checkpoint can. Investors can use the date to review goals, rebalance, start or step up an SIP, or make a planned purchase of a company they have already studied.

• Use it as a review date: compare your portfolio with your goals once a year, at the start of each Samvat year.
• Keep the trade small: a token purchase fits the tradition and limits the risk of a fast-moving 70-minute window.
• Use limit orders: prices can jump at the open, so set the price you are willing to pay.
• Ignore the session close: a red or green hour has not predicted the year in the last decade.

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What Samvat 2083 Brings Into This Year's Session

Samvat 2083 opens after a hard year but on strong recent momentum. The Nifty was at 24,544.75 at 1:55 PM on 5 November 2026, up about 6.5% from its 30 October close, as crude oil prices cooled and financials and autos rallied. The Sensex was up more than 2% on the day.

That rebound may make the Diwali hour look festive, but whether Muhurat trading is auspicious for Samvat 2083 will still depend on fundamentals. The year ahead will depend on crude oil, the RBI's rate path after its October hike to 5.50%, foreign flows and earnings, just as every earlier Samvat year did.

Conclusion

Is Muhurat trading auspicious? In the market data, the answer is a modest yes for the hour and a firm no for the year. The Diwali session has closed higher in 8 of the last 10 years, but by small amounts, and the year that followed has ranged from a 40% gain to a 7% loss regardless. Use 8 November as a planning date for Samvat 2083, not as a signal.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Muhurat trading auspicious for investors?

Ans. Muhurat trading is auspicious as a tradition, but the data does not show it as a reliable signal for returns. The Nifty 50 closed higher in 8 of the last 10 Muhurat sessions, but every move was below 1%. The Samvat years that followed ranged from a 40.2% gain to a 7.4% fall, with no link to how the session went.

What are the average Muhurat trading returns in the last 10 years?

Ans. The Nifty 50's Muhurat session moves from 2016 to 2025 average about +0.31%, based on the closing data in this article. The best session was 2022 at +0.87% and the weakest was 2017 at -0.63%. Over 20 sessions since 2006, 19 moves stayed within 1% in either direction.

Does a positive Muhurat session mean the market will rise that year?

Ans. No, a positive Muhurat session has not reliably led to a positive year. The 2025 session closed 0.10% higher, yet the Nifty fell about 7.4% by 4 November 2026. The negative sessions of 2016 and 2017 were followed by gains of 17.6% and 4.5%, so the hour and the year have moved independently.

When is Muhurat trading in 2026?

Ans. Muhurat trading in 2026 is on Sunday, 8 November, the day of Diwali Laxmi Pujan. Normal trading runs from 2:20 PM to 3:30 PM IST on NSE and BSE, with a pre-open session from 2:05 PM. Stocks under the Closing Auction Session stop continuous trading at 3:15 PM.

Why does the market usually rise during Muhurat trading?

Ans. The market usually rises during Muhurat trading because most participants place small token buy orders as part of the tradition, while few investors sell on a festival day. This one-sided demand lifts prices slightly. In several years, though, the market opened higher and then gave back part of the gain within the hour.

Should I buy stocks during Muhurat trading?

Ans. Buying during Muhurat trading can make sense if it is a planned purchase of a stock or fund you have already researched. It should not be a reaction to festive mood or tips. Keep the amount modest, use limit orders and decide your exit or stop-loss before you place the trade.

How did the market perform in Samvat 2082?

Ans. Samvat 2082 was weak for large caps. The Nifty fell about 7.4% and the Sensex about 8.4% from the Muhurat 2025 close to 4 November 2026, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose about 4.5%. Foreign investors sold Rs 3.03 trillion of equities and domestic institutions bought Rs 7.74 trillion, according to Business Standard.