Gold Price Prediction: After a 20% Crash, Can Gold Rise 20-25% by Dhanteras 2027? Axis Direct's Forecast, Targets, Risks and the Buy or Wait Question

Gold price prediction for Dhanteras 2027: Axis Direct sees MCX gold at Rs 1.65 lakh to Rs 1.80 lakh per 10 grams, a rise of about 13% to 23% from the 4 November price near Rs 1.46 lakh, per Business Today. The headline 20% to 25% return depends on which price you start from. This is a brokerage forecast, not a promise. Figures below come from Business Today, PTI and other press reports. This is not investment advice.

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Gold Price Prediction: What Axis Direct Says

Item	Detail
Target by next Dhanteras	Rs 1,65,000 to Rs 1,71,000 (one report); Rs 1.65 lakh to Rs 1.80 lakh (another report)
Reference price	About Rs 1.46 lakh on 4 November; another report cites Rs 1,42,750
Resistance	Near Rs 1,60,000, which turned into a supply zone
Peak	Rs 1,80,000, from which gold fell more than 20%
Return since last Dhanteras	About 8%
Five-year gain	About 200%, from about Rs 47,600 in November 2021

The two Business Today reports give slightly different target ranges and starting prices, so I show both. On my arithmetic, Rs 1.65 lakh from Rs 1.46 lakh is about 13%, and Rs 1.80 lakh is about 23%. From Rs 1,42,750, Rs 1,71,000 is about 20% and Rs 1.80 lakh is about 26%. Always check the base price behind any percentage return.

Why Axis Direct Stays Positive

Support	Detail
Correction view	Chirag Mehta of Axis Direct calls the fall a correction without capitulation and sees it as temporary liquidity pressure
ETF inflows	Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of USD 3.2 billion through 23 October, after 15 straight weeks of inflows
Central banks	China's central bank added 21 tonnes in September, its 23rd straight month of buying
Staggered buying	Axis Direct says long-term investors can add gold gradually

Motilal Oswal sees USD 3,800 to USD 3,900 per ounce as an accumulation zone, with medium-term targets of USD 4,500 to USD 4,700, per Business Today. Gold closed 30 October at USD 3,875 and was near USD 4,100 on 6 November.

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Why Did Gold Fall More Than 20%?

Factor	Detail
Strong dollar	The dollar index rose about 4%, and gold usually moves opposite to the dollar
US rates	The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on 28 October, and US inflation was 3.7% in September
Oil	Brent rose 13.6% in October and touched USD 118, per Business Today
Forced selling	Gold fell 2.8% on 22 October even as yields fell, which the report blames on margin calls and cash raising
Technicals	A weekly close below the 20-day moving average in September weakened the outlook

In dollar terms gold closed October nearly 30% below its January record, per Business Today. In rupee terms the fall was about 20%, since a weaker rupee cushions domestic prices.

Risks That Could Break the Forecast

Risk	Why it matters
Stronger dollar	It can keep gold under pressure
Higher rates	Gold pays no interest, so rising rates hurt it
Geopolitics	Middle East tension cuts both ways
Rupee strength	A stronger rupee lowers domestic prices
Import duty	A duty cut can lower domestic prices quickly
Forecast error	Brokerage targets are often missed

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Buy or Wait?

Axis Direct's view favours gradual buying, but a forecast does not remove the risk of more short-term weakness. A staggered plan spreads timing risk, and the share of gold in your savings should reflect your goals. Review jewellery, coins, ETFs and digital gold by cost and resale terms. Our Dhanteras 2026 gold buying guide covers the practical side.

Conclusion

The gold price prediction for Dhanteras 2027 from Axis Direct implies gains of about 13% to 23% from early November levels, supported by ETF inflows and central bank buying but exposed to the dollar and rates. Treat the target as one view, and invest gradually.

Frequently Asked Questions on the Gold Price Prediction

What is the gold price prediction for Dhanteras 2027?

Ans. Axis Direct expects MCX gold at Rs 1.65 lakh to Rs 1.80 lakh per 10 grams by next Dhanteras, per Business Today. Another report gives Rs 1,65,000 to Rs 1,71,000. These are brokerage forecasts, not guarantees.

How much return does this forecast imply?

Ans. From the 4 November price near Rs 1.46 lakh, the range implies about 13% to 23% by my arithmetic. The headline says 20% to 25%, which uses a lower base price. Check the starting price.

Why did gold fall more than 20%?

Ans. Business Today cites a stronger dollar, high US rates, rising oil, persistent inflation and forced liquidation. It also notes gold fell 2.8% on 22 October even as yields dropped.

What supports a gold recovery?

Ans. Axis Direct points to central bank buying and ETF inflows. Global gold ETFs saw USD 3.2 billion of net inflows through 23 October, and China added gold for 23 months in a row.

What are the key gold levels to watch?

Ans. Axis Direct sees resistance near Rs 1,60,000 on MCX gold. Motilal Oswal sees USD 3,800 to USD 3,900 per ounce as an accumulation zone. Levels change, so check live data.

Is gold likely to fall further?

Ans. It could. The report warns liquidity-driven selling could bring short-term weakness. A firmer dollar or higher rates could extend losses, while Fed easing could help.

Should I buy gold now or wait?

Ans. Univest cannot say. Buying in parts spreads timing risk, and your allocation should match your goals. Compare costs and consult a SEBI-registered adviser before acting.

Are gold forecasts reliable?

Ans. No. Targets are opinions and are often revised. Gold has moved sharply in 2026 despite bullish forecasts, so use them as one input, not a plan.