Down 24% in 3 Months, Choice Sees 48% Upside in Aptus Value Housing Finance, Initiates With Buy: Check Target, Rationale

Aptus Value Housing Finance is a housing finance company that lends mainly to self-employed borrowers in semi-urban and rural areas, with a base in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The stock has fallen sharply, which is why a Buy call with a 48% upside stands out.

This guide explains the Choice call, the numbers behind it, the valuation, the asset quality trend and the risks. Where I calculate a figure myself, I label it.

A target price is a view, so the useful step is to test the reasons behind it.

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Choice Institutional Equities Call on Aptus Value Housing Finance

Item	Detail	Note
Rating	Buy	Coverage initiated
Target price	Rs 330	About 48% above the last close per the headline
Share price (14 Oct 2026)	Rs 221.85	Down 0.65% at 12:20 pm
Upside from Rs 221.85	About 49%	My calculation
Three-month move	Down about 24%	Headline; another source shows about 23%
One month	Down about 11%	One data provider
52-week range	About Rs 194 to Rs 322	Rs 322.4 high and Rs 193.5 low in one source

At Rs 221.85 the stock is about 31% below its 52-week high of about Rs 322 (my calculation), and about 14% above the 52-week low. The Choice target of Rs 330 is slightly above the 52-week high, so it assumes the stock fully recovers.

Risk: A target price above the 52-week high needs both earnings delivery and a re-rating, and Aptus Value Housing Finance may take time to get there.

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Why Choice Is Positive on Aptus Value Housing Finance

Factor	Detail
AUM growth	About 22% growth; management guides to 22% to 24% in FY27; five-year AUM CAGR of about 22.56%
Net interest margin	About 12.5% to 13%, among the strongest in the sector
Return on equity	Above 20% on one measure; other data shows about 16% to 17%
Return on assets	About 7.8% (one data provider)
Operating model	Cost discipline and underwriting built for self-employed borrowers in semi-urban and rural South India
Expansion	Moving from Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana into Maharashtra and Odisha

A margin of 12.5% to 13% is high for a housing lender, and it is the core of the case for Aptus Value Housing Finance. Together with an efficient cost base it supports a high return on assets.

FY26 numbers from one data page show income of Rs 2,245 crore and profit after tax of Rs 943 crore, with EPS of Rs 18.8. A second source shows six-month profit of Rs 521.89 crore, up 22.43%, with 19 straight quarters of positive results.

Data note: One report gives Q1 FY27 net profit of Rs 361 crore, up 19%, which does not fit with FY26 profit of Rs 943 crore, so I do not rely on it. Check the company filing.

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Aptus Value Housing Finance Valuation and Asset Quality

Item	Figure	Note
Market capitalisation	About Rs 10,968 crore	One data provider
Price to earnings	About 11 times	Another figure on the same page is 15 times
Price to book	About 2.1 times	Another figure is 2.5 times; MarketsMojo shows 2.2 times
Gross NPA	1.7% in Q1 FY27	Up from 1.52%
30+ days past due	6.87%	Stress in small business loans and some Karnataka pockets
Promoter holding	23.86%	No pledge reported
Institutional holding	About 59.86%	MarketsMojo

Valuation multiples differ across pages, so treat the P/E range of 11 to 15 times as a range. At either level, Aptus Value Housing Finance trades below the price to book of many growth lenders, but it also carries rising NPA.

The asset quality trend is the main thing to watch. A gross NPA of 1.7% is still low, but the 30+ days past due figure of 6.87% shows early stress that could turn into NPAs.

Risk: Competition could pressure yields, and NPA trends in small business loans could hurt profit if they worsen.

What the Rs 330 Target Implies for Aptus Value Housing Finance

Item	At Rs 221.85	At Rs 330 (my calculation)
Market capitalisation	About Rs 10,968 crore	About Rs 16,300 crore
Price to earnings on FY26 EPS of Rs 18.8	About 11.8 times	About 17.6 times
Price to book	About 2.1 times	About 3.1 times
Share count implied	About 49.4 crore	Same

The Choice target would lift Aptus Value Housing Finance to about 17.6 times FY26 earnings and about 3.1 times book value, which is a clear re-rating from today. That is possible only if the market again pays up for high-margin lenders with steady AUM growth.

If earnings grow at the 20% or so pace of recent years, the same target would look less demanding on FY27 earnings, but I could not find analyst earnings estimates to check this. The Aptus Value Housing Finance case therefore depends on the next results confirming growth.

Risk: If NPAs keep rising, the market may refuse to re-rate Aptus Value Housing Finance, and the stock could stay near its current multiple or lower.

What to Watch Next for Aptus Value Housing Finance

1. Q2 FY27 results, when announced, for AUM growth against the 22% to 24% guidance
2. Gross NPA and 30+ days past due against 1.7% and 6.87%
3. Net interest margin staying near 12.5% to 13%
4. Branch expansion into Maharashtra and Odisha
5. Whether the Aptus Value Housing Finance share price holds above the Rs 194 low

Conclusion

The Choice Buy call on Aptus Value Housing Finance rests on high margins, about 22% AUM growth and a beaten-down price, but the Rs 330 target is above the 52-week high and NPAs are edging up. Track the next result and avoid treating the 48% upside as certain.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Choice target price for Aptus Value Housing Finance?

Ans. Choice Institutional Equities set a target of Rs 330 with a Buy rating, implying about 48% upside from the last close.

Why is Choice positive on Aptus Value Housing Finance?

Ans. It cites about 22% AUM growth, strong profitability, high margins and an efficient operating model.

How much has the Aptus Value Housing Finance share price fallen?

Ans. It is down about 24% in three months and about 31% below the 52-week high of about Rs 322.

What is the gross NPA of Aptus Value Housing Finance?

Ans. It rose to 1.7% in Q1 FY27 from 1.52%, with 30+ days past due at 6.87%.

What is the AUM growth guidance?

Ans. Management guides to 22% to 24% AUM growth for FY27.

Is Aptus Value Housing Finance attractive on valuation?

Ans. Multiples differ across sources, with P/E between 11 and 15 times and price to book between 2.1 and 2.5 times. Speak to a SEBI registered adviser.

What are the risks for Aptus Value Housing Finance?

Ans. Rising NPA, competition on yields, execution of branch expansion and a target above the 52-week high.

Is this article investment advice?

Ans. No. It is educational and not a recommendation.