Delhi Pollution Curbs: Can They Be a Game-Changer for Auto and EV Stocks From Ather Energy to TMPV?

Delhi pollution curbs return every winter, and each year investors ask whether they can lift the stocks of electric vehicle makers. This year the question is sharper because Delhi has also launched a funded EV policy, so policy support and pollution control now work in the same direction.

This article on Delhi pollution curbs covers the rules, the EV policy, the brokerage views on gainers and losers, the price moves of the stocks involved and the risks. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell.

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What Are the Delhi Pollution Curbs?

Delhi pollution curbs: measure	Detail
No PUCC, No Fuel (from 1 Oct 2026)	Fuel access depends on a valid pollution-control certificate at 500 fuel stations with number plate recognition
Entry restriction (from 1 Nov 2026)	Vehicles that are not BS-VI compliant and are registered outside Delhi face entry restrictions
Revised GRAP	Certain bus restrictions apply at an earlier stage of the graded response plan
Other measures	Construction bans, work-from-home provisions and higher parking charges are mentioned without start dates

These Delhi pollution curbs target older and more polluting vehicles and do not directly mandate electric vehicles. Their link to EV stocks is indirect, through the push towards cleaner transport. The direct support for EVs comes from a separate policy, which is covered below.

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Delhi EV Policy 2.0: The Support Behind the Delhi Pollution Curbs

Delhi pollution curbs: EV policy detail	Figure
Effective period	1 Jul 2026 to 31 Mar 2030
Total outlay	Rs 15,000 crore over FY27 to FY30
EV purchase incentives	Rs 7,000 crore
Charging infrastructure and tax concessions	Rs 8,000 crore
Direction	A staged shift to electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers, with other categories to follow

The policy details were reported by Business Today on 30 Jun 2026, together with brokerage views. Funding of Rs 15,000 crore gives the Delhi pollution curbs a practical partner, since incentives lower the cost of switching and charging points reduce range worry. Even so, the policy runs to 2030, so benefits will build over years and not days. Buyers also compare running costs, resale value and charging access, and these practical factors decide how quickly a policy turns into sales.

Brokerage Views: Likely Gainers From Delhi Pollution Curbs

Delhi pollution curbs: stock or group	View reported on 30 Jun 2026
Ather Energy	Emkay calls it a key beneficiary as a pure-play EV two-wheeler maker, expanding beyond South India with an upcoming EL platform for the mass market
Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV)	Nomura says its Delhi EV mix rose from 14% in FY26 to 22% in FY27 so far and expects it to gain share
Mahindra and Mahindra	Nomura says EVs are already 31% of its Delhi passenger vehicle sales in FY27 so far
Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles	Incentives for electric commercial vehicles and charging could help; Delhi EV mix in light commercial vehicles is 5.5%
Component makers	Nomura views Sona Comstar, Motherson Sumi and Uno Minda positively because of EV exposure
TVS Motor and Bajaj Auto	Seen as better insulated because of exports and a growing electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler franchise

Brokerage views are opinions and the numbers above are as reported on that date. The strongest case for Delhi pollution curbs is for companies that already sell many EVs in Delhi, such as M&M and TMPV, and for pure-play makers such as Ather.

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Data note: Brokerage views are from reports dated 30 Jun 2026 and may have changed. I could not find a new EV-specific announcement dated 23 Oct 2026, so this article uses the policy and the GRAP rules as the context.

Likely Losers From Delhi Pollution Curbs

Delhi pollution curbs: stock	View reported on 30 Jun 2026
Eicher Motors (Royal Enfield)	Emkay and Nomura see it as vulnerable because of high Delhi exposure, a domestic-heavy business and very low EV mix potential; norms for electric two-wheelers may hurt it most
Hero MotoCorp	Emkay sees it as vulnerable because of its domestic-heavy motorcycle business

The pattern is clear: companies with strong petrol motorcycle businesses in Delhi face more risk if Delhi pollution curbs and EV policy push buyers away from petrol. Hero fell 1.58% and Eicher fell 0.26% on 23 Oct, which is not a sharp reaction.

How the Stocks Moved on 23 Oct 2026

Delhi pollution curbs: stock (NSE, about 4:12 PM)	Last price	Day change
Ather Energy	Rs 1,380.00	Down 3.18%
Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles	Rs 264.60	Down 2.00%
Mahindra and Mahindra	Rs 2,861.20	Down 0.10%
TVS Motor	Rs 3,980.20	Up 0.16%
Bajaj Auto	Rs 10,072.00	Down 0.82%
Hero MotoCorp	Rs 5,047.00	Down 1.58%
Eicher Motors	Rs 7,066.00	Down 0.26%
Sona BLW Precision Forgings	Rs 752.85	Down 1.58%

Most of the group fell on the day, including the supposed gainers, which shows that Delhi pollution curbs were not the main driver. The broader market was weak, with the Nifty 50 down about 0.9% at 2:53 PM, so these moves look market-driven. A policy theme can take months to show up in earnings, and investors usually look for repeat orders and rising registrations before they change their view.

Ather Energy and the Delhi Pollution Curbs

Delhi pollution curbs: Ather Energy metric	Figure
Weekly close, 4 May 2026 week	Rs 915.05
Weekly close, 29 Jun 2026 week (policy week)	Rs 1,130.00, up about 13.1% from the previous week (my calculation)
Weekly high in 2026 (week of 31 Aug)	Rs 1,744.00
Price on 23 Oct 2026	Rs 1,380.00, about 20.9% below the high and about 50.8% above the 4 May close (my calculation)
Market cap	About Rs 56,532 crore
Trailing earnings per share	Rs -9.83
Return on equity	-20.10%
Price to book at Rs 1,380 (my calculation)	About 13.4 times

Ather rose strongly around the policy announcement and again in August, but it has given back about a fifth of its gains from the high. It is still loss-making, so the Delhi pollution curbs and policy help its volumes but do not change its profitability on their own. A price to book near 13.4 times means expectations are high.

TMPV and the Delhi Pollution Curbs

TMPV shows how much more drives a stock than one city's rules. Its Delhi EV mix has risen to 22%, yet the stock has fallen from a weekly high of Rs 408 in the week of 25 May to Rs 264.60, a drop of about 35% (my calculation). Since the first close in my data on 4 May, it is down about 25.6%. Delhi pollution curbs may help the EV part of the business, but the stock also reflects overall passenger vehicle demand and other factors.

Risks and Limits of the Delhi Pollution Curbs Theme

1. EV capacity. Nomura flags whether enough EV capacity will be available by 2027, which could limit gains.
2. Indirect link. The GRAP rules target older vehicles and do not directly create EV demand.
3. Policy delivery. Incentives and charging need to reach buyers on time for the theme to turn into sales.
4. Valuation. Ather already trades at about 13.4 times book while losing money.
5. Market mood. A weak market can overwhelm a good theme in the short term.

Investor Views on the Delhi Pollution Curbs Theme

Long-term investors can look at which companies already have a large EV share in Delhi and check whether their profits follow. Short-term traders should note that the 23 Oct reaction was weak, which suggests the theme needs a fresh trigger. Cautious investors may prefer to wait for the next quarter's EV sales numbers before reading too much into Delhi pollution curbs. This is an educational view and not advice.

What to Watch Next on the Delhi Pollution Curbs

1. EV registrations in Delhi in the coming months
2. The impact of the 1 Nov entry restriction on non-BS-VI vehicles
3. Quarterly EV volumes and margins at Ather, TMPV and M&M
4. Any change to the EV policy incentives or charging rollout
5. Brokerage updates on the likely gainers and losers

Conclusion

Delhi pollution curbs and the Rs 15,000 crore EV policy give auto and EV stocks a supportive theme, with Ather, TMPV and M&M named as likely gainers and Hero and Eicher as likely losers. The market did not reward the theme on 23 Oct, since Ather fell 3.18% and TMPV 2.00%. Watch earnings and EV volumes and decide on your own horizon.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the Delhi pollution curbs for 2026?

Ans. From 1 Oct 2026 a No PUCC, No Fuel rule applies at 500 fuel stations with number plate recognition, and from 1 Nov vehicles that are not BS-VI compliant and are registered outside Delhi face entry restrictions. The revised GRAP also brings bus restrictions at an earlier stage.

Can Delhi pollution curbs boost EV stocks?

Ans. They can help over time by pushing buyers towards cleaner vehicles, especially with Delhi's Rs 15,000 crore EV Policy 2.0. The market reaction on 23 Oct was weak, so the theme needs earnings support to translate into stock gains.

What is Delhi's EV Policy 2.0?

Ans. It runs from 1 Jul 2026 to 31 Mar 2030 with Rs 15,000 crore over FY27 to FY30, of which Rs 7,000 crore is for EV purchase incentives and Rs 8,000 crore is for charging infrastructure and tax concessions.

Which stocks may gain from Delhi pollution curbs?

Ans. Brokerages named Ather Energy, TMPV, Mahindra and Mahindra, Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles and EV component makers such as Sona Comstar, Motherson Sumi and Uno Minda. Views were reported on 30 Jun 2026 and may have changed.

Which stocks may lose from Delhi pollution curbs?

Ans. Emkay and Nomura see Eicher Motors, which owns Royal Enfield, and Hero MotoCorp as more vulnerable because of their petrol motorcycle focus. Eicher fell 0.26% and Hero fell 1.58% on 23 Oct.

How did Ather Energy and TMPV shares move on 23 Oct 2026?

Ans. Ather closed near Rs 1,380, down 3.18%, and TMPV closed near Rs 264.60, down 2.00%. Both fell with a weak market, so the moves do not show a reaction to the Delhi pollution curbs.

What are the risks for EV stocks?

Ans. Risks include limited EV capacity by 2027, the indirect link between GRAP rules and EV demand, delays in policy delivery, high valuations such as Ather's price to book of about 13.4 times and market weakness. This is educational and not investment advice.

Is this article investment advice?

Ans. No. It is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please check the figures against company filings and your own risk profile before you act on anything you read here.