Crude Oil Price Prediction for Tomorrow: MCX Levels and Outlook for 18 August 2026

The crude oil price prediction for tomorrow keeps the near-month MCX contract in focus after a strong 1.00% gain on 17 August 2026. MCX Crude Oil settled at Rs 7,948 per barrel, with the session high touching Rs 7,960 and the low at Rs 7,797. Ankit Jaiswal, Research Analyst at Univest, observes that the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is primarily driven by the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, where supply disruption fears continue to underpin prices.

Kunal Singla, Research Analyst at Univest, notes that the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is also shaped by the direction of global refinery demand. US retail sales dropping 0.6% in July signalled softening consumption, which could weigh on demand-side fundamentals for crude. However, supply concerns currently outweigh demand worries, keeping the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow biased toward strength.

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Today's Market Recap: Crude Oil on 17 August 2026

• MCX Crude Oil (Mini Aug): Settled at Rs 7,948/bbl, up Rs 79 (+1.00%). Session high was Rs 7,960 and low was Rs 7,797.
• Global Context: Brent crude remains elevated around $83 to $84/bbl on Strait of Hormuz supply concerns, directly supporting the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.
• Broader Equity Context: ONGC gained 0.88% and BPCL was positive, reflecting energy sector confidence consistent with the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow.

Technical Analysis for Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow

Ankit Jaiswal's crude oil price prediction for tomorrow identifies Rs 7,800 as the first critical support. This level was Monday's intraday low at Rs 7,797, making it a natural demand zone for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow. A sustained hold above Rs 7,800 keeps the bias bullish, while a break below this level in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow could signal a correction toward Rs 7,700 to Rs 7,730.

On the upside, the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow places resistance at Rs 7,960, which was Monday's intraday high. Kunal Singla notes that MCX Crude must close above Rs 7,960 on 18 August for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow to target Rs 8,050. The near-month August contract is approaching expiry, so rollover activity may increase volatility around the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow levels.

Trend for 18 August 2026: Sideways to Bullish
Support: Rs 7,800 | Rs 7,700
Resistance: Rs 7,960 | Rs 8,050

Global Cues Affecting Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow

• US Markets (14 Aug close): Dow Jones at 53,732 (-0.20%), S&P 500 at 7,785 (-0.20%), Nasdaq at 26,729 (-0.30%). Weak retail sales data (-0.6% in July) and subdued University of Michigan consumer sentiment (51, below forecast 55) signal caution.
• Asian Markets: Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 2.1% to 66,970 on Monday, providing a partially positive cue for Asian risk assets.
• Institutional Flows (14 Aug): FII were net buyers of Rs 508 Cr and DII were net buyers of Rs 356 Cr in the cash segment, reflecting continued institutional support for Indian equities.

Key Events for 18 August 2026

• Near-month MCX Crude Oil contract (19 Aug expiry) rollover adds volatility to the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
• Iran-Strait of Hormuz negotiations remain the dominant global supply risk factor for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
• US weekly crude oil inventory data (API/EIA) releases may influence COMEX crude overnight
• Q1 FY27 results from Indian energy companies reporting on 18 August may impact related stocks

Related Instruments to Watch Tomorrow

Name	CMP (Rs)	Day Change	Key Level for Tomorrow
ONGC	238.49	+0.88%	Support: 236 | Resistance: 240
BPCL	~310	~+0.50%	Support: 305 | Resistance: 318
Reliance Industries	1,316.00	+0.46%	Support: 1,298 | Resistance: 1,321
Indian Oil Corporation	~155	~+0.30%	Support: 152 | Resistance: 158

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Strategy for Crude Oil on 18 August 2026

• Hold long positions in MCX Crude above Rs 7,800 with stop below Rs 7,730 for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
• A breakout above Rs 7,960 on 18 August can be traded with a stop at Rs 7,880 targeting Rs 8,050 in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow
• Note the near-month contract (19 Aug expiry) and consider rolling to September contracts to avoid expiry squeeze
• Watch ONGC and Reliance Industries as proxy plays on the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow during equity market hours

What Does Sentiment Indicate for Crude Oil Prediction for Tomorrow?

Sentiment for the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow is bullish, driven primarily by supply-side factors. The Strait of Hormuz standoff between Iran and the US has been the dominant theme for crude oil markets over the past two weeks. Ankit Jaiswal notes that as long as no deal materialises and supply disruption fears persist, the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow stays positively biased.

Kunal Singla observes that demand-side concerns, particularly the weak US retail sales data, could cap the upside in the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow. A strong bounce in consumer spending data or a deal on Hormuz could rapidly change the crude oil price prediction for tomorrow. Until such a catalyst emerges, the Rs 7,800 to Rs 7,960 range is the operational band for the the Crude oil outlook for 18 August on 18 August 2026.

Risks to Tomorrow's Prediction

• A breakthrough in US-Iran Strait of Hormuz negotiations could trigger a sharp sell-off in crude, reversing the tomorrow's MCX Crude oil forecast
• Near-month contract expiry on 19 August may cause volatile swings in MCX Crude ahead of the Tuesday's Crude oil price outlook
• Weak global demand data (US retail sales miss, soft China PMI) could weigh on the the MCX Crude oil forecast if supply concerns ease
• A stronger US dollar overnight could compress dollar-denominated crude prices and affect the the 18 August Crude oil outlook in MCX rupee terms

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Conclusion

The Crude oil's price outlook for tomorrow, 18 August 2026, is sideways to bullish, with MCX Crude Oil at Rs 7,948 per barrel after a 1.00% gain on Monday. Ankit Jaiswal's the Crude oil outlook for 18 August places critical support at Rs 7,800 and resistance at Rs 7,960. Kunal Singla notes that the Iran-Straits of Hormuz situation remains the most important variable in the tomorrow's MCX Crude oil forecast.

Traders should stay alert to overnight Brent crude movements and monitor ONGC and Reliance as barometers for the Tuesday's Crude oil price outlook during domestic market hours. Download the Univest app for live MCX crude prices and expert analyst research on the the MCX Crude oil forecast as 18 August 2026 unfolds.

Disclaimer: Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Univest Research Analyst Registration No. INH000013776.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the the 18 August Crude oil outlook, 18 August 2026?

Ans. The Crude oil's price outlook for tomorrow is sideways to bullish. MCX Crude Oil settled at Rs 7,948 per barrel on 17 August (+1.00%). Support is at Rs 7,800 and resistance at Rs 7,960. Ankit Jaiswal notes the the Crude oil outlook for 18 August stays bullish above Rs 7,800, with Iran tensions remaining the primary driver.

What are the MCX crude oil support and resistance levels for 18 August 2026?

Ans. The tomorrow's MCX Crude oil forecast identifies immediate support at Rs 7,800, aligning with Monday's low of Rs 7,797. Strong support is at Rs 7,700. Resistance is at Rs 7,960 (Monday's high), followed by Rs 8,050. These levels define the range for the Tuesday's Crude oil price outlook.

How do Iran-Strait of Hormuz tensions affect the the MCX Crude oil forecast?

Ans. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is the dominant driver of the the 18 August Crude oil outlook. Any escalation supports crude prices, while a diplomatic deal would trigger a sharp correction. Kunal Singla notes that the Crude oil's price outlook for tomorrow will change rapidly if a breakthrough on the Hormuz issue is announced overnight.

Which energy stocks should traders watch in the the Crude oil outlook for 18 August?

Ans. For the tomorrow's MCX Crude oil forecast, traders should watch ONGC, BPCL, Reliance Industries, and Indian Oil Corporation. These stocks are directly correlated to the Tuesday's Crude oil price outlook through refining margins, upstream revenue, and petrochemical profitability. ONGC gained 0.88% on 17 August, consistent with the bullish the MCX Crude oil forecast.

What is the trading strategy for the the 18 August Crude oil outlook?

Ans. For the Crude oil's price outlook for tomorrow, Ankit Jaiswal recommends holding longs above Rs 7,800 with a stop below Rs 7,730. Kunal Singla advises that a break above Rs 7,960 can be chased targeting Rs 8,050. Note the near-month MCX contract expires on 19 August, so consider rolling to September to avoid expiry-related volatility in the the Crude oil outlook for 18 August.