Crude Oil Price Prediction for Monday, 13 July 2026: MCX Crude Holds Near Rs 6,906 as Brent Eases From Weekly Highs

Crude oil price prediction for monday: MCX Crude Oil July futures closed higher at Rs 6,906 per barrel on Friday, up 0.76 percent, as Brent crude held near 76 dollars a barrel, still on track for a weekly gain of about 6 percent despite easing off Thursday’s spike highs. This crude oil price prediction for monday is built on Friday, 10 July 2026’s closing data, the last completed session before markets reopen on Monday, 13 July 2026.

Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, notes that the crude oil price prediction for Monday remains hostage to the Strait of Hormuz situation: Iran has allowed some shipments through in recent days, but the passage remains only partially reopened, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices.

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Market Recap Behind the Crude oil price prediction for monday

Crude oil opened at Rs 6,895, touched a low of Rs 6,805 and closed at Rs 6,906, holding most of the week’s gains built up during the US-Iran escalation. The crude oil price prediction for Monday notes that oil prices jumped as much as 4 percent on Thursday after Iranian forces targeted American troops in Iraq, before paring gains once Trump signalled Iran was not targeting Americans directly.

Crude oil price prediction for monday: Trend and Key Levels

Trend: Sideways to Bullish Above Rs 6,820

Level Type	Value
Support 1	Rs 6,820
Support 2	Rs 6,750
Resistance 1	Rs 6,950
Resistance 2	Rs 7,050

Ankit Jaiswal flags Rs 6,820 as the key support, with Rs 6,950 as the first resistance. A close above Rs 7,050 would signal renewed escalation risk, while a break under Rs 6,750 would suggest the de-escalation narrative is gaining traction.

Strait of Hormuz and Iran Cues for Crude Oil

The Strait of Hormuz, which carried about 20 percent of daily global oil and gas supplies before the conflict, remains only partially reopened. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned of a crushing response to any further US interference in the strait, keeping a geopolitical premium in crude prices even as headline reports suggest Iran has reached out for negotiations. This tension between de-escalation hopes and continued military posturing is the central theme of the crude oil price prediction for Monday.

Key Triggers in the Crude oil price prediction for monday

These triggers dominate the outlook heading into Monday, 13 July 2026:

• Strait of Hormuz flows: Transit through the strait has recovered to about half of pre-war levels; any further disruption would spike prices.
• Weekend US-Iran headlines: Reports of talks between Washington and Tehran are the single biggest swing factor for the crude oil price prediction for Monday.
• OPEC+ supply signals: Broader supply decisions continue to interact with the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in prices.

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Related Energy Markets to Watch

Natural gas and energy equities are worth tracking alongside the crude oil price prediction for Monday for a fuller energy market picture, alongside crude.

Natural Gas: MCX Natural Gas moved independently, falling 0.80 percent on Friday, a sign gas is trading on its own weather-driven fundamentals rather than the Iran-linked risk premium in crude.

Nifty Energy stocks: Energy-linked equities offer a read on how Indian markets are pricing the same geopolitical risk.

Risks to the Crude oil price prediction for monday

These factors can invalidate this outlook:

• Strait of Hormuz escalation: Any fresh disruption would be the single largest upside risk to the crude oil price prediction for Monday.
• De-escalation progress: Confirmed progress in US-Iran talks would deflate the current risk premium quickly.
• OPEC+ supply changes: Unexpected production decisions could move prices independent of the geopolitical backdrop.

Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track live MCX crude oil prices and get daily commodity research from SEBI registered analysts.

Conclusion

The crude oil price prediction for Monday, 13 July 2026, is sideways to bullish above Rs 6,820, with MCX Crude Oil expected to trade in a Rs 6,750 to Rs 7,050 range. Ankit Jaiswal flags Rs 6,820 as the key support in the crude oil price prediction for Monday, with the Strait of Hormuz situation and weekend US-Iran headlines the dominant triggers heading into the new week.

FAQs on the Crude oil price prediction for monday

What is the crude oil price prediction for Monday, 13 July 2026?

Ans. The crude oil price prediction for Monday, 13 July 2026, is sideways to bullish. MCX Crude Oil July futures closed at Rs 6,906 per barrel on Friday, up 0.76 percent, with Brent near 76 dollars a barrel. The contract is expected to trade in a Rs 6,750 to Rs 7,050 range.

Which analyst gave the crude oil price prediction for Monday?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, has shared the crude oil price prediction for Monday, flagging Rs 6,820 as the key support level for the new trading week.

How does the Strait of Hormuz affect the crude oil price prediction for Monday?

Ans. The Strait of Hormuz, which carried about 20 percent of daily global oil and gas supplies before the conflict, remains only partially reopened. The crude oil price prediction for Monday treats any further disruption there as the single largest upside risk to prices.

Is crude oil expected to rise or fall on Monday?

Ans. The crude oil price prediction for Monday leans sideways to bullish above Rs 6,820, since the geopolitical risk premium from the US-Iran conflict remains embedded in prices even as de-escalation headlines have capped further upside for now.