Crude Oil Prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026: MCX Crude Oil August futures Levels to Watch

The crude oil prediction for monday, 3 August 2026, centres on MCX Crude Oil August futures, which closed Friday at Rs 8,022 per barrel, down 15 points or 0.19% from Thursday's close of Rs 8,037. Crude oil held a narrow range after Thursday's sharp pullback from an intraday spike above 93 dollars a barrel on Brent, as the market weighed a proposed Red Sea security coalition against ongoing Iran-US tensions.

Univest analysts Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director, have built this crude oil prediction for monday using Friday's MCX closing data and the broader macro calendar heading into next week. Ankit Jaiswal covers the technical structure while Kunal Singla layers in the demand and positioning context.

Crude Oil Closing Overview for the Prediction for Monday

• MCX Crude Oil August futures closed at Rs 8,022 per barrel on Friday, -0.19% versus Thursday's Rs 8,037 close.
• Crude oil held a narrow range after Thursday's sharp pullback from an intraday spike above 93 dollars a barrel on Brent, as the market weighed a proposed Red Sea security coalition against ongoing Iran-US tensions.
• The contract expires on 19 August, a date traders following this crude oil prediction for monday should track for rollover related volatility.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis for the Prediction for Monday

Metric	Level
Friday Close	Rs 8,022 (-0.19%)
Support	Rs 7,900 / Rs 7,750
Resistance	Rs 8,040 / Rs 8,150
Contract Expiry	19 August

Ankit Jaiswal builds this crude oil prediction for monday around Rs 7,900 as the near term pivot; a hold above it keeps the setup constructive, while a break would open a path toward Rs 7,750. On the upside, a close above Rs 8,040 would put Rs 8,150 back in focus for this crude oil prediction for monday.

F&O Calendar for the Crude Oil Prediction for Monday

MCX Crude Oil August futures expires on 19 August, and Kunal Singla flags that positioning typically builds through the first half of the expiry week before rollover activity picks up. Traders following this crude oil prediction for monday should watch open interest changes around the RBI policy verdict, since rate and currency moves often spill into MCX pricing.

RBI Policy Week and Global Cues for the Crude Oil Prediction for Monday

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee meets from Monday, 3 August, to Wednesday, 5 August, with the repo rate decision due on the final day. The repo rate has held at 5.25 percent through three consecutive reviews, and most economists expect another hold.

Wall Street staged a sharp Thursday rebound, with the Nasdaq up 2.78 percent and the S&P 500 up 1.66 percent on Microsoft-led strength, a day after a Fed driven selloff. Brent crude eased to 89.03 dollars a barrel after an earlier spike above 93 dollars on Iran related strikes, and Gift Nifty August futures were trading near 24,422 on Friday morning.

Crude Oil Prediction for Monday: Trading Strategy

• Use Rs 7,900 as the near term pivot for this crude oil prediction for monday; a sustained hold above it keeps the setup constructive.
• A close above Rs 8,040 would be the trigger for a fresh long bias toward Rs 8,150.
• Keep position sizes measured ahead of Wednesday's RBI verdict, since currency moves around the decision can spill into commodity pricing.
• Respect stop losses below Rs 7,750 rather than averaging into a losing position into the 19 August expiry.

Risks to the Crude Oil Prediction for Monday

• A stronger dollar following a hawkish RBI or Fed commentary could pressure this crude oil prediction for monday, particularly for gold and silver.
• Any fresh escalation in the Iran-US standoff could move crude oil and, by extension, the broader commodity complex sharply.
• Increased volatility is typical into the 19 August expiry as positions roll to the next month's contract.
• A reversal in Thursday's Wall Street rally when US markets trade Friday night could shift risk appetite across commodities before Monday's MCX open.

Conclusion

This crude oil prediction for monday, 3 August 2026, points to MCX Crude Oil August futures holding a range between Rs 7,900 support and Rs 8,040 resistance as the RBI policy week begins. Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla both flag the RBI verdict on Wednesday and ongoing Iran-US tensions as the dominant swing factors for the week. A close above Rs 8,040 would strengthen this crude oil prediction for monday, while a break below Rs 7,900 would call for caution.

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What is the crude oil prediction for monday, 3 August 2026?

Ans. The crude oil prediction for monday, 3 August 2026, points to MCX Crude Oil August futures holding between Rs 7,900 support and Rs 8,040 resistance, after closing Friday at Rs 8,022 per barrel.

What is MCX Crude Oil August futures's support and resistance for Monday?

Ans. Support is at Rs 7,900 and then Rs 7,750. Resistance is at Rs 8,040 and then Rs 8,150, based on Friday's close of Rs 8,022.

When does MCX Crude Oil August futures expire?

Ans. MCX Crude Oil August futures expires on 19 August. Traders following this crude oil prediction for monday should watch for rollover related volatility as that date approaches.

How will the RBI MPC meeting affect this prediction for Monday?

Ans. The RBI Monetary Policy Committee meets from 3 to 5 August, with the rate decision due Wednesday. Currency moves around the verdict can spill into MCX commodity pricing, particularly for gold and silver.

What do Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla say in this crude oil prediction for monday?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal expects MCX Crude Oil August futures to hold its recent range given Friday's -0.19% move, while Kunal Singla flags the RBI verdict and global crude oil trends as the key triggers for the week.

Why did crude oil move lower on Friday?

Ans. Crude oil held a narrow range after Thursday's sharp pullback from an intraday spike above 93 dollars a barrel on Brent, as the market weighed a proposed Red Sea security coalition against ongoing Iran-US tensions.

What are the key global cues for commodity markets next week?

Ans. Brent crude eased to 89.03 dollars a barrel on Thursday after an earlier spike above 93 dollars on Iran related strikes, and the RBI policy verdict on Wednesday is the dominant domestic trigger for the week.

Should traders take fresh positions in crude oil ahead of the RBI decision?

Ans. Univest analysts suggest keeping position sizes measured ahead of Wednesday's verdict and recommend consulting a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.