Commodity Market Prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026: Metals Split as MCX Awaits RBI Verdict

The commodity market prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026, points to a split MCX board carrying into the new week: precious metals stayed on the back foot while base metals and natural gas held firm. Gold fell 1.01 percent to Rs 1,41,785 per 10 grams and silver dropped 1.06 percent to Rs 2,17,646 per kg on Friday, both pressured by a firmer dollar after this week's hawkish Fed commentary, even as copper added 0.32 percent and zinc gained 0.53 percent.

Univest analysts Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director, have built this commodity market prediction for Monday using Friday's MCX closing prices across the metals and energy complex. Ankit Jaiswal covers the precious metals and crude oil picture, while Kunal Singla focuses on base metals and the broader positioning context heading into the RBI policy week.

Commodity Market Closing Overview for the Prediction for Monday

• Gold closed at Rs 1,41,785 per 10 grams (-1.01%) and silver at Rs 2,17,646 per kg (-1.06%), both pressured by dollar strength.
• Crude oil held near Rs 8,022 per barrel (-0.19%) after Thursday's sharp pullback from an intraday spike above 93 dollars a barrel on Brent.
• Copper added 0.32 percent to Rs 1,342.75 per kg and zinc gained 0.53 percent to Rs 382.80 per kg, while natural gas rose 0.68 percent to Rs 266.40 per mmBtu.

Commodity Market Technical Analysis for the Prediction for Monday

Metric	Level
Gold	Rs 1,41,785 (-1.01%) | Support Rs 1,41,500 | Resistance Rs 1,42,900
Silver	Rs 2,17,646 (-1.06%) | Support Rs 2,17,000 | Resistance Rs 2,19,900
Crude Oil	Rs 8,022 (-0.19%) | Support Rs 7,900 | Resistance Rs 8,040
Natural Gas	Rs 266.40 (+0.68%) | Support Rs 264 | Resistance Rs 268
Copper	Rs 1,342.75 (+0.32%) | Support Rs 1,335 | Resistance Rs 1,350
Zinc	Rs 382.80 (+0.53%) | Support Rs 380 | Resistance Rs 385

Ankit Jaiswal notes that the divergence between precious metals and base metals in this commodity market prediction for Monday reflects two different forces at play: gold and silver are reacting to dollar and yield moves tied to this week's central bank decisions, while copper and zinc are tracking steadier underlying industrial demand. That split is likely to persist into Monday unless the RBI verdict on Wednesday materially shifts the rupee or global rate expectations, a scenario this commodity market prediction for Monday will keep monitoring closely.

F&O Calendar for the Commodity Market Prediction for Monday

• Gold and Silver August futures roll toward expiry through the first half of August, while Crude Oil's August contract expires on 19 August.
• Natural Gas August futures expire on 26 August, and both Copper and Zinc August contracts expire on 31 August.
• Kunal Singla flags that rollover activity across the complex typically builds through the RBI policy week as traders reposition ahead of month end.

RBI Policy Week and Global Cues for the Commodity Market Prediction for Monday

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee meets from Monday, 3 August, to Wednesday, 5 August, with the repo rate decision due on the final day. The repo rate has held at 5.25 percent through three consecutive reviews, and most economists expect another hold.

Wall Street staged a sharp Thursday rebound, with the Nasdaq up 2.78 percent and the S&P 500 up 1.66 percent on Microsoft-led strength, a day after a Fed driven selloff. Brent crude eased to 89.03 dollars a barrel after an earlier spike above 93 dollars on Iran related strikes, and Gift Nifty August futures were trading near 24,422 on Friday morning.

Commodity Market Prediction for Monday: Trading Strategy

• Use Rs 1,41,500 as the near term pivot for gold and Rs 2,17,000 for silver in this commodity market prediction for Monday.
• Favour the base metals complex over precious metals while the dollar stays firm, per Kunal Singla's near term reading in this commodity market prediction for Monday.
• Keep crude oil positions light given the binary risk from any weekend Iran-US development.
• Avoid large fresh positions across the board ahead of Wednesday's RBI verdict, since currency moves can ripple through the entire MCX complex covered in this commodity market prediction for Monday.

Risks to the Commodity Market Prediction for Monday

• A stronger dollar following hawkish RBI or Fed commentary remains the single biggest risk to gold and silver in this commodity market prediction for Monday.
• Any fresh escalation in the Iran-US standoff could send crude oil sharply higher, with knock-on effects across the energy complex, a risk this commodity market prediction for Monday flags directly.
• A reversal in Thursday's Wall Street rally when US markets trade Friday night could shift risk appetite before Monday's MCX open.
• Rollover related volatility typically increases as August contracts approach their expiry dates through the month.

Conclusion

This commodity market prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026, points to a divided MCX board, with gold and silver staying on the defensive while copper, zinc and natural gas hold firmer ground. Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla both flag the RBI verdict on Wednesday and the Iran-US situation as the dominant triggers for the week ahead. A firmer dollar would extend precious metals weakness in this commodity market prediction for Monday, while a resolution of West Asia tensions would likely support crude oil.

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What is the commodity market prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026?

Ans. The commodity market prediction for Monday, 3 August 2026, points to a split board: gold and silver on the defensive from dollar strength, while copper, zinc and natural gas hold firmer, with crude oil range bound.

What is the gold price prediction for Monday?

Ans. Gold closed Friday at Rs 1,41,785 per 10 grams, down 1.01 percent, with support at Rs 1,41,500 and resistance at Rs 1,42,900.

What is the silver price prediction for Monday?

Ans. Silver closed Friday at Rs 2,17,646 per kg, down 1.06 percent, with support at Rs 2,17,000 and resistance at Rs 2,19,900.

Why are gold and silver falling while copper and zinc are rising?

Ans. Gold and silver are reacting to dollar strength and higher US Treasury yields following this week's Fed decision, while copper and zinc are tracking steadier industrial demand rather than currency moves.

How will the RBI MPC meeting affect the commodity market prediction for Monday?

Ans. The RBI Monetary Policy Committee meets from 3 to 5 August, with the rate decision due Wednesday. Any shift in rupee expectations around the verdict could ripple through the MCX complex, particularly gold and silver.

What is the crude oil outlook for Monday?

Ans. Crude oil closed near Rs 8,022 per barrel, down 0.19 percent, after Thursday's pullback from an intraday spike above 93 dollars a barrel on Brent tied to Iran related strikes.

What do Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla say about commodities for Monday?

Ans. Ankit Jaiswal expects the precious metals versus base metals divergence to persist, while Kunal Singla flags the RBI verdict and rollover activity as the key things to watch through the week.

Should traders take fresh commodity positions ahead of the RBI decision?

Ans. Univest analysts suggest keeping positions measured across the MCX complex ahead of Wednesday's verdict, and recommend consulting a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.