Brent Crude Price Forecast: Goldman Sachs Sees Upside to $120 by Q3 if Hormuz Disruptions Persist

The latest Brent crude price forecast from Goldman Sachs, published on 21 July 2026, retains an 80 dollar a barrel base case for the fourth quarter on expectations of eventual de-escalation, while flagging that risks are tilted meaningfully higher given persistent disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank’s analysts noted that Persian Gulf oil flows have fallen below 45 percent of pre-war levels, a sharp contraction that underscores how much of the region’s crude export capacity remains constrained even as diplomatic efforts continue. This article covers the details of Goldman’s Brent crude price forecast and what it means for global energy markets and Indian investors.

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Goldman Sachs Brent Crude Price Forecast: Key Scenarios

Scenario	Brent Price Estimate	Key Assumption
Base case (Q4 2026)	$80 per barrel	Expected de-escalation in the Gulf
Upside risk (Q3 2026)	Could top $120 per barrel	If Hormuz disruptions persist
Current Persian Gulf flows	Below 45% of pre-war levels	Reflects severity of ongoing disruption

The gap between Goldman’s base case and its upside scenario in this Brent crude price forecast is unusually wide, reflecting genuine uncertainty about how long the Strait of Hormuz disruption will persist rather than a narrow band of likely outcomes.

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Why Goldman’s Brent Crude Price Forecast Skews to the Upside

Goldman’s analysts pointed to shipping disruptions not just in the Strait of Hormuz but potentially in the Red Sea as well, where Yemen’s Houthi rebels have threatened to blockade shipments from Saudi Arabia. Red Sea routes have been a critical alternate pathway for disrupted Persian Gulf crude cargoes to reach international customers, so any additional constraint there would compound the existing supply shock.

The bank also noted that lower global oil inventories heading into the second quarter have left markets more exposed to supply shocks than they would otherwise be, even as a slump in Chinese imports and greater demand elasticity may partially offset the upward price pressure.

What the Brent Crude Price Forecast Means for India

A move toward the upper end of Goldman’s Brent crude price forecast range would be a meaningful headwind for India, which imports the vast majority of its crude requirement. Higher oil prices widen the trade deficit, pressure the rupee, and add to inflationary pressure across the economy, with knock on effects for interest rate policy and consumer spending.

Sectors directly exposed to crude price swings, including aviation, paints, tyres, and oil marketing companies, would see cost pressure intensify if Brent approaches the 120 dollar level flagged in the upside scenario, while upstream producers such as ONGC and Oil India would benefit from higher realisations.

Goldman’s Hedging Suggestion Amid the Uncertainty

For investors looking to hedge against persistent geopolitical shocks from the Middle East and Russia, Goldman suggested a strategy of going long on the December 2026 to March 2027 European diesel timespread, a trade designed to benefit from continued tightness in diesel markets tied to the broader disruption.

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Conclusion

Goldman Sachs’ latest Brent crude price forecast captures the genuine uncertainty facing global energy markets: an 80 dollar base case for Q4 alongside real upside risk toward 120 dollars if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. With Persian Gulf flows already below 45 percent of pre-war levels, the situation remains fluid. Indian investors should track crude developments closely given the direct impact on inflation and the rupee, and consult a SEBI registered adviser before positioning around this forecast.

FAQs on the Brent Crude Price Forecast, 21 July 2026

What is Goldman Sachs’ latest Brent crude price forecast?

Ans. Goldman Sachs retains an 80 dollar a barrel Q4 2026 base case for Brent crude on expected de-escalation, but says risks are tilted higher, with prices potentially topping 120 dollars by Q3 if Hormuz disruptions persist.

Why does Goldman see upside risk in its Brent crude price forecast?

Ans. The upside risk stems from persistent disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, with Persian Gulf oil flows falling below 45 percent of pre-war levels, plus potential additional disruption in the Red Sea shipping routes.

How have Persian Gulf oil flows been affected?

Ans. Persian Gulf oil flows have fallen below 45 percent of pre-war levels according to Goldman Sachs, reflecting the scale of ongoing disruption to the region’s crude export capacity.

What could offset the upside risk in Goldman’s Brent crude price forecast?

Ans. Lower Chinese oil imports and greater demand elasticity could partially offset upward price pressure, even as lower global inventories leave markets more exposed to supply shocks.

How would higher Brent crude prices affect India?

Ans. Higher Brent crude prices would widen India’s trade deficit, pressure the rupee, and add to inflationary pressure, given the country imports the vast majority of its crude oil requirement.

What hedge did Goldman Sachs suggest against oil price risk?

Ans. Goldman suggested investors go long on the December 2026 to March 2027 European diesel timespread as a way to hedge against persistent geopolitical shocks affecting oil markets.

Where can I track Brent crude price forecast updates?

Ans. You can track Brent crude price forecast updates and MCX crude prices on the Univest app and website, along with daily commodity research alerts.