Stock Market Prediction for Tomorrow, 29 September 2026: Expiry Day Tests Nifty’s 22,700 Floor
- September 28, 2026
- Posted by: Ankit Jaiswal
- Category: Market
Quick Answer: This stock market prediction for tomorrow, Tuesday 29 September 2026, stays cautious after Nifty 50 fell 1.56 percent to 22,780.25 and Sensex lost 1.52 percent to 72,771.72 on Monday. Bank Nifty dropped 1.99 percent to 54,471.65, and India VIX jumped 12.58 percent to 13.69. Nifty 50 support sits at 22,700 and 22,500, with resistance at 22,900 and 23,000. Tuesday is also monthly F&O expiry, so moves in either direction can stretch quickly.
Dalal Street opened the week on the back foot as crude oil held above 100 dollars a barrel and foreign selling continued. The Nifty 50 and Sensex have now closed lower for seven straight weeks through last Friday, and the Bank Nifty led Monday’s slide with a 1.99 percent drop.
Univest’s research desk, led by Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst, and Kunal Singla, Associate Director, is watching whether Tuesday brings a relief bounce or another leg lower. GIFT Nifty, crude oil and the first hour of expiry-day trade are the first checkpoints.
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Today’s Market Recap
- Nifty 50: Closed at 22,780.25, down 1.56 percent, after opening near 23,065 and touching a low of 22,762.20.
- Sensex: Closed at 72,771.72, down 1.52 percent, with an intraday range of 72,716.23 to 73,740.85.
- Bank Nifty: Closed at 54,471.65, down 1.99 percent, the sharpest fall among the three benchmarks.
- India VIX: Rose 12.58 percent to 13.69, a sign that traders were paying more for protection into expiry.
- Nifty PSU Bank: Closed at 8,026.10, down 3.24 percent, the weakest of the sector indices tracked.
- Nifty IT: Closed at 28,086.50, down just 0.26 percent, the mildest decline among the sector indices tracked.
- Most active stocks: Among the frontline names tracked, HDFC Bank saw the heaviest volumes at around 2.17 crore shares and fell 2.25 percent, followed by Kotak Mahindra Bank at around 1.51 crore shares, down 0.61 percent. Reliance Industries slipped 2.32 percent, while Larsen and Toubro lost 2.83 percent.
Index Levels for Tomorrow
Nifty 50 (Trend: Weak, Watching for a Bounce)
| Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|
| 22,700 and 22,500 | 22,900 and 23,000 |
Sensex (Trend: Weak, Watching for a Bounce)
| Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|
| 72,500 and 72,000 | 73,200 and 73,700 |
Bank Nifty (Trend: Weak, Watching for a Bounce)
| Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|
| 54,000 and 53,500 | 55,000 and 55,500 |
All three benchmarks closed within a whisker of their session lows, so a further slip would test first support quickly. A bounce needs to clear first resistance to change the tone. Options data leans the same way: the Nifty put-call ratio stood at 0.62, with the heaviest call open interest at the 23,000 strike and the largest put build at 22,800.
Stocks to Watch for Tomorrow
Univest’s desk is flagging five frontline names across IT, banking, energy and pharma. These are not buy calls, and each should be checked against your own risk plan before acting.
| Stock | Monday’s Move | What to Watch Tomorrow |
|---|---|---|
| Infosys | Closed 0.30 percent higher at Rs 1,003.20 while most frontline names fell | Ankit Jaiswal flags it for holding up on a day of broad selling; watch whether it can stay green if the index gaps lower. |
| Tata Consultancy Services | Slipped 0.54 percent to Rs 2,070.70, a much smaller loss than the market | A relative-strength name in a weak tape; watch whether Nifty IT keeps outperforming the benchmark. |
| HDFC Bank | Fell 2.25 percent to Rs 719.05 on the heaviest volumes among the names tracked | The single stock most likely to steer Bank Nifty on expiry day; watch its first-hour reaction. |
| Reliance Industries | Fell 2.32 percent to Rs 1,197.60 as crude stayed above 100 dollars | Kunal Singla suggests tracking it against Brent, since a crude spike weighs on the stock and the index. |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries | Eased 0.77 percent to Rs 1,838.00, better than the 0.89 percent fall in Nifty Pharma | A relatively defensive pocket if broader weakness extends into Tuesday. |
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Global Cues Affecting Tomorrow’s Market Open
- Brent crude has held above 100 dollars a barrel, trading around 105 to 106 dollars in Monday’s session after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Wall Street closed higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones up 0.93 percent, the S&P 500 up 0.51 percent and the Nasdaq up 0.48 percent, but US futures turned weaker on the Hormuz news.
- The US 10-year Treasury yield has been running above 5 percent and the rupee is trading near 95.8 per dollar, both of which keep pressure on foreign flows.
- GIFT Nifty will be the first live signal for Tuesday’s open.
Key Events and Triggers for Tomorrow
- Tuesday, 29 September is the monthly F&O expiry for Nifty 50, Bank Nifty and stock derivatives, which can add sharp intraday swings.
- Foreign investors had sold about Rs 17,131 crore of Indian equities in September before Monday’s session, so provisional FII and DII data will show whether selling slowed.
- The Reserve Bank of India’s liquidity operations, including a Rs 25,000 crore bond sale scheduled for Monday, keep bond yields and bank stocks in focus.
- NSE and BSE stay closed on Friday, 2 October for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti, leaving only four sessions this week.
Sectors to Watch Tomorrow
- PSU Banks: Nifty PSU Bank led the fall at 3.24 percent and is the sector most in need of a stabilising session.
- Private Banks: Nifty Private Bank lost 1.51 percent, with HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank the swing factors for Bank Nifty.
- IT: A 0.26 percent dip made Nifty IT the most resilient sector on the day, worth tracking for relative strength.
- Metal and Auto: Nifty Metal fell 1.78 percent and Nifty Auto 1.64 percent, both sensitive to crude and global demand cues.
Stock Market Strategy for Traders
- Wait for GIFT Nifty and the first fifteen minutes before committing to a directional view; expiry-day opens can reverse quickly.
- Treat the first support on each index as a working stop for long positions, and a move above first resistance as a trigger to reassess.
- Keep an eye on India VIX; a further jump would argue for smaller position sizes whatever the levels suggest.
- Avoid over-leveraging into expiry, since option premiums can move sharply against you in either direction.
Check live Nifty 50, Sensex and Bank Nifty levels on the Univest Screener
What Does Market Sentiment Indicate for This Stock Market Prediction for Tomorrow?
Sentiment heading into Tuesday is best described as defensive. Every sector index tracked closed lower, the VIX rose by double digits, and the put-call ratio sits well below 1. Kunal Singla notes that a seventh straight weekly loss followed by a 1.5 percent daily drop often leaves markets prone to sharp counter-trend bounces, but a bounce alone does not repair the trend.
The divergence inside the tape is worth reading. Infosys finished higher and TCS held most of its value even as HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and the PSU banks sold off hard. Ankit Jaiswal flags that leadership is narrowing to a handful of defensive and IT names, which usually means the broader market needs a macro trigger, such as lower crude, before it can recover.
Taken together, this stock market prediction for tomorrow rests on defined ranges rather than a one-sided call. A move outside those bands on real volume would be the clearer signal to act on.
Risks to Tomorrow’s Stock Market Prediction
- A further rise in crude oil, or fresh escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, could push the indices through first support.
- Continued foreign selling and rising US bond yields could keep pressure on banks and large caps.
- Expiry-day short covering could trigger a sharp rebound that reverses the bearish setup within minutes.
- A surprise de-escalation headline on West Asia could lift the market sharply, against the cautious view here.
Conclusion
The stock market prediction for tomorrow leans cautious after Monday’s 1.56 percent fall in Nifty 50 and 1.99 percent slide in Bank Nifty. Nifty 50 support sits at 22,700 and 22,500, Sensex support at 72,500 and Bank Nifty support at 54,000, with monthly expiry likely to stretch the range. Infosys, TCS, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and Sun Pharma are on Univest’s watchlist. Historical patterns and analyst observations are reference points, not guarantees, and position sizing should reflect your own risk appetite.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information and may not be accurate. Please verify all data independently before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the stock market prediction for tomorrow, 29 September 2026?
Ans. The outlook for Tuesday, 29 September 2026 is cautious. Nifty 50 closed at 22,780.25, down 1.56 percent, and Sensex at 72,771.72, down 1.52 percent, with monthly F&O expiry adding to intraday volatility.
What are the key support and resistance levels for Nifty 50, Sensex and Bank Nifty tomorrow?
Ans. Nifty 50 support sits at 22,700 and 22,500 with resistance at 22,900 and 23,000. Sensex support sits at 72,500 and 72,000 with resistance at 73,200 and 73,700. Bank Nifty support sits at 54,000 and 53,500 with resistance at 55,000 and 55,500.
Which sector fell the most in Monday’s session?
Ans. Nifty PSU Bank fell the most among the sector indices tracked, down 3.24 percent to 8,026.10. Nifty IT was the mildest decline, down 0.26 percent.
Why did the market fall on Monday, 28 September 2026?
Ans. Crude oil held above 100 dollars a barrel after the US rejected Iran’s latest proposal on the Strait of Hormuz, while foreign selling and elevated US bond yields kept pressure on Indian equities.
Which stocks are flagged to watch on Tuesday?
Ans. Infosys, TCS, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and Sun Pharma are flagged for monitoring. These are not buy calls and should be checked against your own risk plan.
Is tomorrow a market holiday or an expiry day?
Ans. Tuesday, 29 September 2026 is a trading day and the monthly F&O expiry for Nifty 50, Bank Nifty and stock derivatives. NSE and BSE are closed on Friday, 2 October for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti.
