NTPC Share Price Target 2027: Base and Bull Targets Built on FY26 Earnings

NTPC share price Rs 312.00 (9 October 2026). Base target Rs 353, bull Rs 427, downside risk Rs 247. PE 10.59. 52W range Rs 308.45 to Rs 414.40.

Investors weighing an NTPC target price for 2027 should start with where the stock sits today. At Rs 312.00 on 9 October 2026, it is 24.7% below its 52-week high of Rs 414.40 and 1.2% above its 52-week low of Rs 308.45. That range spans 34% from low to high, so the entry point matters as much as the NTPC price forecast itself.

This article builds the NTPC share price target from reported numbers only: five years of annual results, the last five quarters, the latest shareholding pattern and current valuation ratios from company filings and exchange data. Each scenario shows its assumptions, so you can see exactly how the Rs 353 base case and the Rs 427 bull case were reached, along with a downside risk level of Rs 247.

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NTPC Stock Analysis: Company Overview and Key Stats

NTPC (NSE: NTPC) has a market capitalisation of Rs 2,99,918 crore. In FY26 it reported revenue of Rs 1,89,799 crore and net profit of Rs 30,010 crore. The table collects the figures the NTPC share price target is built on.

Why Is NTPC Share Price Target Set at Rs 353 for 2027?

The base-case NTPC stock target of Rs 353 applies a PE multiple of 10.59 to a forward EPS estimate of Rs 33.32. That EPS assumes 14.0% yearly growth, the pace from FY24 to FY26, and puts the target 13.1% above the current price. The bull case adds faster earnings growth and a higher multiple, while the downside risk level assumes flat earnings and a lower multiple.

Earnings Growth Behind the NTPC Target Price: Five Years of Results

NTPC grew revenue from Rs 1,34,994 crore in FY22 to Rs 1,89,799 crore in FY26, a compound annual growth rate of 8.9%. Net profit grew faster, from Rs 15,474 crore to Rs 30,010 crore (18.0% a year), which shows margin gains did part of the work and not just higher sales.

FY26 revenue growth was -0.6%, slower than the four-year average of 8.9%, and net profit moved up 48.2%. EPS rose from Rs 21.46 in FY24 to Rs 27.90 in FY26. The FY27 outlook depends on whether that EPS estimate keeps compounding.

Margins and the Latest Quarter

NTPC converted 15.8% of FY26 revenue into net profit, against 10.6% in FY25, within a five-year range of 9.9% to 15.8%. EBITDA margin was 31.9% in FY26 versus 30.9% in FY25.

In the June 2026 quarter, revenue was Rs 51,142 crore, up 6.9% from the same quarter a year earlier, while net profit of Rs 6,896 crore was up 12.9%. EBITDA came in at Rs 16,631 crore, up 24.7% year on year. The next quarterly result is the first test of whether the earnings assumption holds.

Balance Sheet and Cash Flow

Debt to equity stands at 1.33, and shareholders’ equity grew from Rs 1,39,134 crore in FY22 to Rs 2,11,153 crore in FY26. Operating cash flow in FY26 was Rs 50,902 crore against capital expenditure of Rs 44,050 crore, leaving free cash flow of Rs 6,852 crore, or 2.3% of the current market capitalisation. In FY25 free cash flow was Rs 9,153 crore.

Valuation Check for the NTPC Stock Target: PE, Price to Book and ROE

At a PE of 10.59 against an industry PE of 22.17, NTPC trades at a discount to its industry. Price to book is 1.48 on a book value of Rs 209.53 per share, and return on equity is 13.31%. A PE of 10.59 equals an earnings yield of 9.4%, and the FY26 dividend of Rs 9.00 per share gives a yield of 2.91%.

Shareholding Pattern and Institutional Holding

Promoters held 51.10% of NTPC in June 2026, and promoter holding has stayed near 51.10% since June 2025. Foreign institutional investors (FII) held 16.30% and domestic institutions (DII) held 29.44%, which puts total institutional holding at 45.74%. FII holding rose from 16.09% in June 2025 to 16.30% in June 2026. Public shareholders own the remaining 3.15%. A meaningful institutional holding adds a layer of research coverage and trading depth.

NTPC Share Price Targets for the Short Term and 12 Months

Short Term NTPC Stock Target Levels: Technical Setup

At Rs 312.00 on 9 October 2026, NTPC trades below its 50-day simple moving average of Rs 332.22 and below its 200-day exponential moving average of Rs 348.82. The 14-day RSI reads 36.7, which is neutral territory, and the MACD line sits below its signal line. The nearest resistance level is Rs 332.22 (50-day simple moving average) and the nearest support is Rs 308.45 (52-week low). A sustained move above Rs 332.22 would improve the short-term setup, while a close below Rs 308.45 would shift attention to the next support.

12 Month NTPC Target Price for 2027

The 12-month target for NTPC is Rs 353: forward EPS of Rs 33.32 at a PE of 10.59. That is 13.1% above Rs 312.00. It would still leave the stock 14.8% below its 52-week high of Rs 414.40.

How EPS Growth and PE Multiple Change the NTPC Target Price

Each cell multiplies the forward EPS estimate by the PE shown. Reading across a row shows what a de-rating or re-rating does to the NTPC price forecast, and reading down a column shows what earnings growth is worth at a fixed multiple.

Bull Case and Downside Risk for NTPC Stock Target in 2027

Bull Case Rs 427

The bull case NTPC price target needs EPS growth of 20.0%, which lifts forward EPS to Rs 35.07, and a PE multiple that rises 15% to 12.18. That gives Rs 427, 36.9% above the current price and above the 52-week high of Rs 414.40, so the stock would have to set a fresh 52-week high.

Downside Risk Level Rs 247

The downside risk level is not a target. It assumes EPS stays flat at Rs 29.22 and the PE falls 20% to 8.47. That gives Rs 247, 20.8% below the current price and below the 52-week low of Rs 308.45.

Key Risks to the NTPC Target Price for 2027

Growth Slowdown Risk for the NTPC Price Target

Revenue in the June 2026 quarter was up 6.9% year on year, and FY26 revenue growth was -0.6%. If growth slows from here, the EPS estimate behind the NTPC stock target will need revising.

Liquidity and Size Risk

NTPC has a market capitalisation of Rs 2,99,918 crore. Institutional holding is 45.74%, and promoters hold 51.10%. A company of this size trades with deep liquidity, so entry and exit are rarely a problem, and the larger risk is paying too much for slow earnings growth.

Valuation and Margin Risk

Net margin was 15.8% in FY26, and a squeeze from higher costs or weaker pricing would hit earnings first. At a PE of 10.59 versus an industry PE of 22.17, a de-rating toward the downside-risk PE of 8.47 would cut the price even if earnings hold.

Market and Technical Risk

The stock trades 24.7% below its 52-week high, with an RSI of 36.7 and a MACD reading below its signal line. Broader market weakness can override company fundamentals in the short term.

How to Invest in NTPC

Start with the live price and volume. Any NTPC share price target is only as current as the data behind it, and the data here is as of 9 October 2026, so refresh the Rs 312.00 price before acting on any level.

Next, review the fundamentals yourself. The Univest Screener lets you check NTPC’s PE, ROE, debt and shareholding in one place.

Check NTPC fundamentals on the Univest Screener

Then compare the three NTPC target price scenarios with your own view. If you expect EPS growth below 14.0%, the base case is too optimistic for you; if you expect more, the bull case deserves weight.

Decide your position size and exit levels before you buy. The support and resistance levels above can serve as reference points, but they are not recommendations.

Finally, place the order through a SEBI-registered broker or the Univest app, and review the position after each quarterly result. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor if you are unsure.

Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track NTPC live price and get daily stock recommendations.

Conclusion

The NTPC share price target for 2027 is Rs 353 in the base case, with Rs 427 as the bull case. The support for that view is arithmetic you can check: EPS grew 14.0% a year over FY24 to FY26, and the stock trades at a PE of 10.59. The risks are equally concrete, including a stock that sits 24.7% below its 52-week high and a downside scenario that cuts the price 21% if earnings stall. Use these numbers as a framework, check them against the latest filings, and size any position to your own risk appetite.

FAQs on NTPC Share Price Target 2027

What is the NTPC share price target for 2027?

Ans. The base-case NTPC share price target for 2027 is Rs 353, with Rs 427 as the bull case. The downside risk level, which is not a target, is Rs 247. These are model estimates from reported earnings and the current PE, not guaranteed outcomes.

What is the NTPC share price today?

Ans. As of 9 October 2026, 3:30 PM IST, NTPC trades at Rs 312.00, up 0.74% on the day. The 52-week range is Rs 308.45 to Rs 414.40.

Is NTPC a buy or sell at the current price?

Ans. The data is mixed rather than one-sided: EPS has grown 14.0% a year over FY24 to FY26, but the stock is 24.7% below its 52-week high. Whether NTPC fits your portfolio depends on your time horizon and risk appetite, so consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing. This article is not investment advice.

What are the bull case target and downside risk level for NTPC shares?

Ans. The bull case target is Rs 427, which assumes 20.0% EPS growth and a PE of 12.18. The downside risk level is Rs 247, which assumes flat EPS and a PE of 8.47. It marks a risk, not a target.

What are the main risks to the NTPC price target?

Ans. The main risks are slower revenue growth, a small market capitalisation of Rs 2,99,918 crore, a PE de-rating and short-term weakness in the broader market. Each is covered in the risk section above.

What is the PE ratio of NTPC and how does it compare with the industry?

Ans. The PE ratio of NTPC is 10.59 against an industry PE of 22.17. Price to book is 1.48 and return on equity is 13.31%. The base case in the NTPC price target holds this PE constant.

Who owns NTPC, and what is the promoter holding?

Ans. Promoters held 51.10% of NTPC in June 2026. FII held 16.30%, DII held 29.44% and the public held 3.15%.

What were NTPC’s latest quarterly results?

Ans. In the June 2026 quarter, NTPC reported revenue of Rs 51,142 crore (up 6.9% year on year) and net profit of Rs 6,896 crore (up 12.9%).