MOIL Share Price Target 2026: Stock Analysis, Share Price Today, Bull Case and Bear Case After Q1 FY27
- June 30, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: News
MOIL Rs 239.20 (6 Oct 2026 close). 52-week range Rs 230.01 to Rs 404.90. Q1 FY27 profit Rs 87.6 cr, up 70%.
Quick Answer
The MOIL share price target for 2026 is Rs 219 to Rs 262, which is between 8 percent below and 10 percent above the last close of Rs 239.20, with bull and bear cases of Rs 308 to Rs 352 and Rs 120 to Rs 144. MOIL reported Q1 FY27 net profit up 70 percent to Rs 87.62 crore and EBITDA margin up to 36.6 percent, driven by a 10 percent rise in net sales realisation to Rs 9,749 a tonne, as production rose only 1 percent. The stock is down 38 percent in a year, trades at 16 times earnings, has no debt and pays a 2.2 percent dividend yield, even though profit more than doubled in the quarter. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario.
The MOIL share price target for 2026 is Rs 219 to Rs 262 in the Univest base case, with the stock at Rs 239.20 at the 6 October 2026 close. That is 40.9 percent below its 52-week high of Rs 404.90 and 4.0 percent above its 52-week low of Rs 230.01, and the stock moved down 38.2 percent over the past year. MOIL is a state-owned Miniratna manganese ore miner and India’s largest producer, operating underground and open-cast mines in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. It has no debt and pays a dividend yield of 2.23 percent.
Three things changed since the last update: Q1 FY27 results on 29 July showed profit up 70 percent, the stock spiked to Rs 304.50 in the week of 27 July, and it then fell to a 52-week low of Rs 230. This MOIL stock analysis covers the MOIL share price today, the MOIL share price target for 2026, 2027 and 2030, the Q1 FY27 numbers, catalysts and risks, key price levels and a MOIL buy or sell view.
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What Is the MOIL Share Price Target for 2026?
The 2026 target for MOIL shares is Rs 219 to Rs 262 in the Univest base case, which is -8.4% to +9.5% against the last close. The bull case is Rs 308 to Rs 352 and the bear case is Rs 120 to Rs 144. No brokerage price target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so every range below is a Univest research scenario. Analyst consensus is used as a cross-check, not as the base.
MOIL Share Price Target Scenarios: Bull Case, Base Case and Bear Case
| Scenario | FY28E EPS | Target Multiple | Price Target (Rs) | Move vs Rs 239.20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull Case | Rs 22 | 14x to 16x | 308 to 352 | +28.8% to +47.2% |
| Base Case | Rs 17.5 | 12.5x to 15x | 219 to 262 | -8.4% to +9.5% |
| Bear Case | Rs 12 | 10x to 12x | 120 to 144 | -49.8% to -39.8% |
FY28 EPS of Rs 17.50 in the base case compares with trailing EPS of Rs 14.92 and assumes manganese ore prices stay near current levels with volume growth of about 4 percent. Mining stocks trade at 12 to 15 times earnings, and the stock trades at about 14 times the base estimate. The PE multiple used for each case is shown in the table, and the EPS estimate is a Univest assumption, not company guidance. Those assumptions set the MOIL share price target range around the current price.
MOIL Company Overview and Share Price Today as of 6 October 2026
MOIL share price today is Rs 239.20 on the NSE at the 6 October 2026 close, before the market opens on 7 October. The market capitalisation is Rs 4,869 crore, and the stock trades at 16 times earnings against an industry average of 15.3 times. The Univest base case MOIL share price target of Rs 219 to Rs 262 is -8.4% to +9.5% from here. The table below sets out the key numbers behind the MOIL share price target.
| Parameter | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| NSE Ticker | MOIL | BSE code 533286 |
| Sector | Mining (manganese ore) | Per Univest sector classification |
| Last Close (NSE) | Rs 239.20 | 6 Oct 2026 close |
| 52-Week High | Rs 404.90 | CMP is 40.9% below |
| 52-Week Low | Rs 230.01 | CMP is 4.0% above |
| 1-Year Return | About -38% | Weekly close Rs 387.05 on 10 Oct 2025 to Rs 239.2 |
| Market Capitalisation | Rs 4,869 crore | Small cap state-owned miner |
| Trailing P/E | About 16.0x | Industry P/E about 15.33x |
| P/B Ratio | About 1.80x | Book value Rs 133.14 per share |
| EPS (TTM) | Rs 14.92 | Trailing twelve months |
| Return on Equity | About 9.9% | Debt to equity 0.00 |
| Dividend Yield | About 2.23% | Dividend paid yearly |
| 12-Month Target (Base Case) | Rs 219 to Rs 262 | Univest base case |
| Bull Case | Rs 308 to Rs 352 | +28.8% to +47.2% |
| Bear Case | Rs 120 to Rs 144 | -49.8% to -39.8% |
Track live price, fundamentals and results for MOIL on the Univest Screener.
How Did MOIL Perform in Q1 FY27?
MOIL reported Q1 FY27 standalone net profit of Rs 87.62 crore, up 70 percent from Rs 51.51 crore, on revenue from operations of Rs 370.88 crore, up 7 percent. EBITDA rose to Rs 136 crore from Rs 78.8 crore, lifting the margin to 36.6 percent from 22.6 percent. Together these Q1 FY27 numbers anchor the MOIL share price target.
| Metric | Q1 FY27 | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Net Profit | Rs 87.62 crore | Up 70% from Rs 51.51 crore |
| Revenue from Operations | Rs 370.88 crore | Up 7% YoY |
| EBITDA | Rs 136 crore | Margin 36.6% against 22.6% |
| Manganese Ore Production | 5,07,605 tonnes | Up 1% YoY |
| Manganese Ore Sales | 3,69,049 tonnes | Up 4% YoY |
| Net Sales Realisation | Rs 9,749 per tonne | Up 10% from Rs 8,884 |
Profit before tax rose 75 percent to Rs 111.62 crore. The profit jump came from higher prices and scale benefits, not volume, and MOIL had raised prices on most ore grades earlier. The company operates underground and open-cast mines in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, and its Miniratna status gives it more freedom on spending. The board also appointed an independent director on 15 July, and the promoter reported no encumbrance on its shares.
Production of 5.08 lakh tonnes and sales of 3.69 lakh tonnes show steady offtake from steel and ferroalloy makers. The quarter also benefited from a 7 percent rise in revenue from operations, while total revenue including other income reached Rs 391 crore. These figures matter because MOIL is the largest manganese ore producer in India and its results are a read-through for the domestic steel supply chain.
The FY27 outlook from management is the main input for these estimates. These numbers sit behind every range in the scenario table above, so they anchor the MOIL share price target.
Why Is MOIL Share Price Down 38 Percent in a Year?
MOIL shares are down about 38 percent in a year because manganese ore volume is flat and the market worries that high prices will not last. The stock is 41 percent below the Rs 404.90 high of the week of 6 October 2025.
It spiked 12 percent in the week of 16 March and to Rs 304.50 in the week of 27 July on volume of 3.85 crore shares, then fell about 25 percent to Rs 230.01 in the week of 28 September. No company-specific news explained the fall. The MOIL share price target scenarios below account for that move.
Key Catalysts for the MOIL Share Price Target in 2026
4 catalysts matter most for the MOIL share price target, and sector tailwinds in Mining (manganese ore) are part of the case. Together they decide whether the base case is reached.
1. Price Realisation
Net sales realisation rose 10 percent to Rs 9,749 a tonne. Firm manganese prices lift profit quickly. If it plays out, the MOIL share price target moves toward the top of the base range.
2. Scale Benefits
EBITDA margin rose to 36.6 percent from 22.6 percent. Fixed mining costs are spread over higher sales. Strength here would support the upper end of the MOIL share price target.
3. Debt-Free Balance Sheet
MOIL has no debt and pays a 2.23 percent yield. Strong cash supports mine expansion. Delivery on this point keeps the MOIL share price target on track.
4. Steel Demand
Manganese is a key steel input. Growth in India’s steel and ferroalloy output supports sales. Better news here would lift the MOIL share price target toward the bull case.
What Are the Key Risks to the MOIL Share Price Target?
The main risks are manganese price swings, flat volume, government control and regulatory costs. Each can pull the MOIL share price target lower.
Price Swings
Profit depends on manganese ore prices. A fall of 10 percent would cut realisation by about Rs 975 a tonne. If it materialises, the MOIL share price target would slip toward the bear case.
Flat Volume
Production grew only 1 percent and sales 4 percent in Q1 FY27. Slow mine ramp-up limits growth. This is the main downside risk to the MOIL share price target.
Government Control
As a state-owned miner MOIL follows policy on pricing and dividends. Policy changes could limit returns. A worsening here would cut the MOIL share price target toward the low end of the range.
Valuation Reset
A bear case EPS of Rs 12 at 10 times would put the price near Rs 120. Watch it closely, because it can pull the MOIL share price target lower quickly.
MOIL Stock Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels for the Share Price Target
MOIL stock analysis on weekly charts shows a range of Rs 230 to Rs 252 since mid-September, with the stock near the lower end.
The first support level is Rs 230 to Rs 235, the lows of the weeks of 28 September, 14 September and 5 October. Below that there is no weekly support, as Rs 230.01 is the 52-week low.
The first resistance level is Rs 243.50 to Rs 245.90, the highs of the weeks of 5 and 28 September. Above that, Rs 247 to Rs 252 marks the September highs and Rs 256 to Rs 270 marks the August levels. These levels come from weekly price action, are not trade recommendations, and frame the near-term MOIL share price target.
MOIL Share Price Target 2026, 2027 and 2030: Short, Medium and Long Term
Short-Term MOIL Share Price Target (3 to 6 Months)
In the near term the stock is likely to trade between Rs 230 and Rs 252, from the 52-week low to the high of the week of 21 September. A close above Rs 246 would put Rs 252 in play, while a weekly close under Rs 230 would open a fresh 52-week low. The Q2 FY27 results are the main trigger. This range anchors the near-term MOIL share price target.
12-Month and 2027 MOIL Share Price Target
The 12-month target price is Rs 219 to Rs 262, valued on 12.5 to 15 times FY28 EPS of Rs 17.5. The range across scenarios runs from Rs 120 in the bear case to Rs 352 in the bull case.
Long-Term MOIL Share Price Target for FY29 to 2030
For FY29 to 2030 the Univest scenario range is Rs 231 to Rs 350. This assumes EPS of Rs 21 in FY29 and Rs 25 in FY30 and a multiple of 11 to 14 times. It needs manganese ore prices to hold near current levels and production to grow beyond 1 percent a year. This is the long-term MOIL share price target in the Univest scenarios.
Bull Case and Bear Case for MOIL Share Price Target
Bull Case Rs 308 to Rs 352
The bull case of Rs 308 to Rs 352 for the MOIL share price target needs EPS of Rs 22 and the market to pay 14 to 16 times for it. It is +28.8% to +47.2% from the last close.
Bear Case Rs 120 to Rs 144
The bear case of Rs 120 to Rs 144 for the MOIL share price target equals 10 to 12 times FY28 EPS of Rs 12 and sits below the Rs 230.01 low. It is -49.8% to -39.8% from the last close.
Is MOIL a Good Buy at Rs 239? MOIL Buy or Sell View
Whether MOIL is a buy at Rs 239.20 depends on horizon and risk appetite. The base case sits between 8 percent below and 10 percent above the current price, the stock is 41 percent below its high, and the open question is manganese prices. The MOIL share price target range is the starting point for that decision.
Long-term holders may focus on realisation, volume and dividends, and treat Rs 230 as the level to watch. Short-term traders may prefer to wait for a close above Rs 246. Check institutional holding in the September quarter filing for signs of accumulation or selling. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before acting, since this MOIL buy or sell view is educational.
How to Invest in MOIL Shares
Step 1: Check the live price, valuation and the latest MOIL share price target range on the Univest Screener.
Step 2: Open a demat and trading account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest before acting on any MOIL share price target.
Step 3: Search for MOIL on the NSE or 533286 on the BSE in your trading app.
Step 4: Place a limit order near your planned entry and size the position so a fall to Rs 120 is bearable.
Step 5: Track manganese prices, volume and Q2 FY27 results and set price alerts on the Univest App to follow any change in the MOIL share price target.
Conclusion
MOIL closed at Rs 239.20 against a Univest base case share price target of Rs 219 to Rs 262, a bull case of Rs 308 to Rs 352 and a bear case of Rs 120 to Rs 144. Q1 FY27 delivered profit growth of 70 percent with EBITDA margin at 36.6 percent on higher prices. The main risks are price swings, flat volume and policy.
The stock is 40.9 percent below its 52-week high, so the base case sits between 8 percent below and 10 percent above the current price. The triggers to watch are manganese prices, volume and Q2 FY27 results and the Rs 230 and Rs 246 levels. Re-check the MOIL share price target after each quarterly result. Investors with a long horizon and tolerance for volatility can track these triggers, while others may prefer to size positions carefully.
Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App to track MOIL live price and get daily stock recommendations.
Disclaimer: Data and figures in this article are sourced from publicly available information. These may or may not be accurate. Please verify all data with the official NSE (nseindia.com) and BSE (bseindia.com) websites before making any investment decision. Investments in securities are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
FAQs on MOIL Share Price Target 2026
What is the MOIL share price target for 2026?
Ans. The MOIL share price target for 2026 is Rs 219 to Rs 262 in the Univest base case, with a bull case of Rs 308 to Rs 352 and a bear case of Rs 120 to Rs 144. No brokerage target was available on the sources we track as of 6 October 2026, so these are Univest research scenarios. These are estimates and can change after the Q2 FY27 results.
What is the MOIL share price target for 2027?
Ans. The MOIL share price target for 2027 is Rs 219 to Rs 262 in the base case, valued on 12.5 to 15 times FY28 EPS of Rs 17.5. The scenario range runs from Rs 120 to Rs 352.
Is MOIL a good buy at Rs 239.20?
Ans. Whether MOIL is a good buy at Rs 239.20 depends on your horizon, risk appetite and how you read the MOIL share price target. Profit rose 70 percent, the company is debt free and yields 2.2 percent, but volume is flat and profit depends on ore prices. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.
What are the key risks to the MOIL share price target?
Ans. The key risks to the MOIL share price target are price swings, flat volume, government control and valuation reset. Profit depends on manganese ore prices. A fall of 10 percent would cut realisation by about Rs 975 a tonne.
What are the key catalysts for the MOIL share price target?
Ans. The key catalysts for the MOIL share price target are price realisation, scale benefits, debt-free balance sheet and steel demand. Net sales realisation rose 10 percent to Rs 9,749 a tonne. Firm manganese prices lift profit quickly.
Where can I track MOIL share price today and MOIL share price target updates?
Ans. You can track the live MOIL share price, results and any change to the MOIL share price target on the Univest Screener and the Univest App. Download the Univest iOS App or Univest Android App for research from SEBI-registered analysts.
What are MOIL’s 52-week high and low?
Ans. MOIL’s 52-week high is Rs 404.90 and its 52-week low is Rs 230.01, based on weekly NSE data. At Rs 239.20 the stock is 40.9 percent below the high and 4.0 percent above the low. Both levels frame the MOIL share price target.
How to buy MOIL shares?
Ans. Open a demat account with a SEBI-registered broker such as Univest, search for MOIL on the NSE or 533286 on the BSE, and place a limit order near your entry price, using the MOIL share price target range as a guide. Size the position so a fall to Rs 120 is bearable, and check the live price on the Univest Screener first.
