Crude Oil Prediction for Monday | MCX Levels 29 June 2026
- June 25, 2026
- Posted by: Kunal Singla
- Category: News
Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Jul Futures: Rs 6,595 per barrel on 25 June 2026 (-1.11%). Prev Rs 6,669. Nifty 24,056.00. VIX 13.05. Sensex monthly expiry 29 June 2026. S1: Rs 6,540.
The crude oil price prediction for Monday for 29 June 2026 is shaped by MCX Crude Oil Jul Futures closing at Rs 6,595 per barrel (-1.11%) on 25 June 2026, as the Nifty 50 closed at 24,056.00 and the Sensex settled its weekly options above 77,000 max pain at 77,100.47. India VIX fell to 13.05, a multi-week low. Crude oil fell -1.11% to Rs 6,595 per barrel, the only MCX commodity still declining on 25 June 2026, as Iran deal supply expectations continue to dominate crude. Two critical events shape the crude oil price prediction for Monday: the Iran-US Switzerland talks weekend outcome (Day 5 was Friday) and Monday 29 June 2026 being the BSE Sensex monthly options expiry day.
Ankit Jaiswal, Senior Research Analyst at Univest, has analysed today’s MCX Crude Oil close and the Monday market setup to present the crude oil price prediction for Monday. The crude oil price prediction for Monday is a weekend-gap article – actual Monday opening will depend on Iran-US developments, US Friday close, and GIFT Nifty pre-market signal.
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Crude Oil Prediction for Monday: Today’s MCX Close
- MCX Close: MCX Crude Oil Jul Futures settled Rs 6,595 per barrel (-1.11%) on 25 June 2026 from Rs 6,669. Crude oil continued its decline even as other commodities bounced, reflecting the market’s ongoing pricing of Iranian oil supply increase via the expected Iran deal
- International Cue: Brent Crude at ~$68.50/bbl (-0.9%) is the primary reference for the crude oil price prediction for Monday. US Friday close and weekend Brent Crude direction will gap the MCX opening for the crude oil price prediction for Monday on Monday morning.
- Sensex Monthly Expiry Monday: 29 June 2026 is BSE Sensex monthly options expiry. This creates Indian equity market volatility between 2:00 PM and 3:30 PM that affects rupee and risk sentiment, influencing MCX afternoon prices for the crude oil price prediction for Monday.
Crude Oil Prediction for Monday: Key MCX Levels
Trend: Cautiously Bearish | Range: Rs 6,540 to Rs 6,669 per barrel
| Level | Crude Oil (MCX Crude Oil Jul Futures) |
|---|---|
| Support 1 | 6,540 |
| Support 2 | 6,450 |
| Resistance 1 | 6,669 |
| Resistance 2 | 6,780 |
The crude oil price prediction for Monday from Ankit Jaiswal places Rs 6,540 as the MCX support for Monday. A sustained move below this level targets Rs 6,450 as the next support. Jaiswal notes that the crude oil price prediction for Monday carries elevated weekend gap risk: any Iran-US deal confirmation or collapse that occurs after Friday MCX close will gap the crude oil price prediction for Monday opening on Monday morning, potentially breaching these technical levels immediately at open.
Crude Oil F&O and Monday Expiry Context
- MCX Contract Expiry: The active MCX Crude Oil contract (Crude Oil Jul Futures) expires on 20 July 2026. Pre-expiry OI positioning adds intraday direction to the crude oil price prediction for Monday on Monday alongside the Sensex monthly expiry influence.
- Sensex Monthly Expiry Impact: Monday 29 June 2026 BSE Sensex monthly expiry creates equity market volatility between 2:00 PM and 3:30 PM. For the crude oil price prediction for Monday, this affects rupee via institutional equity flows and risk sentiment, creating MCX intraday amplification in the afternoon session on Monday.
- June Month-End: 29 June 2026 is the last Monday of June. June month-end institutional portfolio rebalancing creates additional flows in both equity and commodity markets that add to the crude oil price prediction for Monday Monday intraday complexity beyond the standard Sensex monthly expiry dynamics.
Global Cues for Crude Oil Prediction for Monday
- Iran-US Talk Weekend Outcome: This is the primary binary event for the crude oil price prediction for Monday. A confirmed deal over the weekend would sharply alter MCX Crude Oil pricing; a breakdown would reverse recent trends. Check news Saturday and Sunday for updates before the crude oil price prediction for Monday on Monday morning.
- Brent Crude: Brent Crude overnight direction and US Friday close feed into the crude oil price prediction for Monday via GIFT Nifty and MCX opening gap. Set price alerts on Brent Crude for the crude oil price prediction for Monday over the weekend.
- Dollar Index (DXY): DXY direction over the weekend affects rupee-denominated MCX prices. A weaker dollar supports the crude oil price prediction for Monday upside for precious metals and base metals heading into Monday.
Track Live MCX Crude Oil Data on Univest
MCX Strategy: Crude Oil Prediction for Monday
- Check Brent Crude Sunday Evening: The most important input for the crude oil price prediction for Monday is Brent Crude direction before MCX opens Monday. Check at 9:00 AM Monday before placing any crude oil price prediction for Monday positions.
- Watch Setup: The {kw} favours selling rallies toward Rs 6,669 with stop above Rs 6,780 targeting Rs 6,450.
- Reduce Before 2:00 PM: Sensex monthly expiry between 2:00 PM and 3:30 PM on Monday creates rupee and risk volatility. The crude oil price prediction for Monday advises reducing MCX positions before 2:00 PM to avoid Sensex expiry-driven MCX spread widening.
- Weekend Gap Management: Any Iran-US development that occurs between Friday MCX close and Monday 9:00 AM will create a gap in the crude oil price prediction for Monday. Use limit orders on Monday morning opening and avoid immediate market orders.
What Data Indicates for crude oil price prediction for Monday
The crude oil price prediction for Monday is at a critical juncture as markets close for the weekend with Iran-US talks in their final stages. Ankit Jaiswal notes that the crude oil price prediction for Monday is one of the most binary setups of the month: a confirmed Iran deal would create a sharp Monday morning gap up for the crude oil price prediction for Monday, while a breakdown reverses the trend down sharply.
Kunal Singla observes that India VIX at 13.05 (multi-week low) and the Sensex weekly expiry settling cleanly at 77,100.47 provide a stable equity backdrop for the crude oil price prediction for Monday. Low equity VIX reduces the probability of extreme MCX intraday swings for the crude oil price prediction for Monday on Monday outside of the Sensex monthly expiry window and any Iran-US binary event.
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Risks to Crude Oil Prediction for Monday
- Iran-US Weekend Outcome: A confirmed deal or definitive breakdown over the weekend will gap the crude oil price prediction for Monday opening sharply on Monday, potentially invalidating the pre-weekend technical levels entirely.
- Iran Deal Collapse Weekend: A breakdown in Switzerland over the weekend would spike crude oil well above Rs 6,851 (previous resistance), creating a sharp reversal in the crude oil price prediction for Monday.
- Sensex Monthly Expiry Volatility: Monday Sensex monthly expiry between 2:00 PM and 3:30 PM creates wider MCX spread risk for the crude oil price prediction for Monday in the afternoon session. Avoid placing new MCX positions during this window.
- June Month-End Flows: Last Monday of June brings institutional portfolio rebalancing that can create unusual intraday flows affecting the crude oil price prediction for Monday beyond normal technical patterns.
Stocks to Watch on Monday, 29 June 2026
Ankit Jaiswal and Kunal Singla of Univest flag three stocks for Monday 29 June 2026. 29 June 2026 is the BSE Sensex monthly options expiry day and June month-end, adding specific volatility to Sensex heavyweights in the 2:00 to 3:30 PM expiry window.
| Stock | CMP (25 June 2026) | Entry Zone | Target | Stop Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICICI Bank | Rs 1,387.50 | Rs 1,382 to Rs 1,392 | Rs 1,412 to Rs 1,420 | Rs 1,368 |
| HDFC Bank | Rs 796.30 | Rs 793 to Rs 799 | Rs 812 to Rs 818 | Rs 783 |
| Reliance Industries | Rs 1,318.10 | Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,320 | Rs 1,338 to Rs 1,345 | Rs 1,300 |
ICICI Bank at Rs 1,387.50 (+1.01% on 25 June 2026) leads momentum into Monday. Jaiswal flags entry Rs 1,382 to Rs 1,392 targeting Rs 1,412. As a top Sensex constituent, ICICI Bank will see direct Sensex monthly expiry positioning on Monday. HDFC Bank at Rs 796.30 is the largest Sensex weight and the primary Sensex monthly expiry anchor for Monday. Singla flags entry Rs 793 to Rs 799, target Rs 812, stop Rs 783. Reliance Industries at Rs 1,318.10 benefits from continued crude weakness reducing downstream costs. Entry Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,320, target Rs 1,338, stop Rs 1,300.
Conclusion
The crude oil price prediction for Monday for 29 June 2026 is cautiously bearish with MCX support at Rs 6,540 and resistance at Rs 6,669 per barrel. Ankit Jaiswal notes the crude oil price prediction for Monday carries the highest binary risk of the month given the unresolved Iran-US situation and Monday’s Sensex monthly expiry on the same day. Check Brent Crude before 9:00 AM on Monday and use limit orders for the crude oil price prediction for Monday opening positions.
Disclaimer: Data and figures are sourced from publicly available information. Please verify with NSE (nseindia.com), BSE (bseindia.com) and MCX (mcxindia.com) before investing. Investments are subject to market risk. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice by Univest (SEBI RA INH000013776).
FAQs
What is the crude oil price prediction for Monday, 29 June 2026?
Ans. The crude oil price prediction for Monday shows MCX Crude Oil at Rs 6,595 per barrel (-1.11%) on 25 June 2026. Support is Rs 6,540 and resistance Rs 6,669 per barrel. Iran-US weekend outcome and Sensex monthly expiry on Monday are the two key swing factors for the crude oil price prediction for Monday.
How does Sensex monthly expiry affect crude oil price prediction for Monday?
Ans. Sensex monthly expiry on Monday 29 June 2026 creates equity market volatility 2:00 to 3:30 PM affecting rupee and risk sentiment, which amplifies MCX intraday swings for the crude oil price prediction for Monday in the afternoon. Reduce MCX Crude Oil positions before 2:00 PM on Monday.
What is MCX Crude Oil support for Monday 29 June 2026?
Ans. The crude oil price prediction for Monday places support at Rs 6,540 and Rs 6,450 per barrel. Resistance is Rs 6,669 and Rs 6,780. Weekend Iran-US outcome is the primary factor that could gap the crude oil price prediction for Monday opening above or below these technical levels on Monday.
What stocks to watch alongside crude oil price prediction for Monday on Monday?
Ans. For Monday’s Sensex monthly expiry session alongside the crude oil price prediction for Monday: ICICI Bank (entry Rs 1,382 to Rs 1,392, target Rs 1,412), HDFC Bank (Sensex monthly expiry anchor, entry Rs 793 to Rs 799, target Rs 812), and Reliance Industries (entry Rs 1,314 to Rs 1,320, target Rs 1,338).
When is MCX Crude Oil expiry?
Ans. MCX Crude Oil active contract (Crude Oil Jul Futures) expires on 20 July 2026. Pre-expiry OI positioning adds intraday direction to the crude oil price prediction for Monday on Monday alongside the Sensex monthly expiry influence.
